| Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation |
| Const[t] = + 2165.22639318386 -395.811145503876gordel[t] + 1.00000000001762et[t] -442.550696587991M1[t] -617.8124999965M2[t] -567.250000002188M3[t] -680.4374999915M4[t] -543.125M5[t] -598.87499999275M6[t] -523.249999992751M7[t] -508.374999989M8[t] -455.56249999475M9[t] -316.187499988375M10[t] -116.624999999000M11[t] + e[t] |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares | |||||
| Variable | Parameter | S.D. | T-STAT H0: parameter = 0 | 2-tail p-value | 1-tail p-value |
| (Intercept) | 2165.22639318386 | 21.083338 | 102.6985 | 0 | 0 |
| gordel | -395.811145503876 | 18.65458 | -21.2179 | 0 | 0 |
| et | 1.00000000001762 | 0.041217 | 24.2616 | 0 | 0 |
| M1 | -442.550696587991 | 29.656345 | -14.9226 | 0 | 0 |
| M2 | -617.8124999965 | 29.633418 | -20.8485 | 0 | 0 |
| M3 | -567.250000002188 | 29.633418 | -19.1422 | 0 | 0 |
| M4 | -680.4374999915 | 29.633418 | -22.9618 | 0 | 0 |
| M5 | -543.125 | 29.633418 | -18.3281 | 0 | 0 |
| M6 | -598.87499999275 | 29.633418 | -20.2094 | 0 | 0 |
| M7 | -523.249999992751 | 29.633418 | -17.6574 | 0 | 0 |
| M8 | -508.374999989 | 29.633418 | -17.1555 | 0 | 0 |
| M9 | -455.56249999475 | 29.633418 | -15.3733 | 0 | 0 |
| M10 | -316.187499988375 | 29.633418 | -10.67 | 0 | 0 |
| M11 | -116.624999999000 | 29.633418 | -3.9356 | 0.000119 | 5.9e-05 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics | |
| Multiple R | 0.960178790197478 |
| R-squared | 0.921943309145093 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.916242539588274 |
| F-TEST (value) | 161.722606036986 |
| F-TEST (DF numerator) | 13 |
| F-TEST (DF denominator) | 178 |
| p-value | 0 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics | |
| Residual Standard Deviation | 83.8159633601225 |
| Sum Squared Residuals | 1250470.59708940 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals | |||
| Time or Index | Actuals | Interpolation Forecast | Residuals Prediction Error |
| 1 | 1687 | 1538.75215209260 | 148.247847907395 |
| 2 | 1508 | 1370.34128408424 | 137.658715915758 |
| 3 | 1507 | 1369.34128407764 | 137.658715922356 |
| 4 | 1385 | 1247.34128408817 | 137.658715911826 |
| 5 | 1632 | 1494.34128408161 | 137.658715918392 |
| 6 | 1511 | 1373.34128408771 | 137.658715912292 |
| 7 | 1559 | 1421.34128408722 | 137.658715912777 |
| 8 | 1630 | 1492.34128409196 | 137.65871590804 |
| 9 | 1579 | 1441.34128408438 | 137.65871591562 |
| 10 | 1653 | 1515.34128408960 | 137.658715910397 |
| 11 | 2152 | 2014.34128407426 | 137.658715925745 |
| 12 | 2148 | 2010.34128408113 | 137.65871591887 |
| 13 | 1752 | 1624.93041606415 | 127.069583935854 |
| 14 | 1765 | 1648.51954808914 | 116.480451910859 |
| 15 | 1717 | 1600.51954805572 | 116.480451944283 |
| 16 | 1558 | 1441.51954806160 | 116.480451938403 |
| 17 | 1575 | 1458.51954808098 | 116.480451919023 |
| 18 | 1520 | 1403.51954808824 | 116.480451911760 |
| 19 | 1805 | 1688.51954806193 | 116.480451938070 |
| 20 | 1800 | 1683.51954806533 | 116.480451934670 |
| 21 | 1719 | 1602.51954808722 | 116.480451912778 |
| 22 | 2008 | 1891.51954806623 | 116.480451933767 |
| 23 | 2242 | 2125.51954805621 | 116.480451943785 |
| 24 | 2478 | 2361.51954808732 | 116.480451912681 |
| 25 | 2030 | 1924.10868009942 | 105.891319900582 |
| 26 | 1655 | 1559.69781204758 | 95.3021879524242 |
| 27 | 1693 | 1597.69781204467 | 95.302187955333 |
| 28 | 1623 | 1527.69781205312 | 95.3021879468843 |
| 29 | 1805 | 1709.69781204540 | 95.3021879545969 |
| 30 | 1746 | 1650.69781205260 | 95.302187947404 |
| 31 | 1795 | 1699.69781205213 | 95.3021879478735 |
| 32 | 1926 | 1830.69781209792 | 95.302187902077 |
| 33 | 1619 | 1523.69781208583 | 95.3021879141673 |
| 34 | 1992 | 1896.69781205632 | 95.3021879436756 |
| 35 | 2233 | 2137.69781204643 | 95.3021879535703 |
| 36 | 2192 | 2096.69781204265 | 95.302187957348 |
| 37 | 2080 | 1995.28694410067 | 84.7130558993275 |
| 38 | 1768 | 1693.87607608994 | 74.1239239100598 |
| 39 | 1835 | 1760.87607608454 | 74.1239239154574 |
| 40 | 1569 | 1494.87607604254 | 74.1239239574626 |
| 41 | 1976 | 1901.87607608879 | 74.1239239112103 |
| 42 | 1853 | 1778.87607609485 | 74.1239239051454 |
| 43 | 1965 | 1890.87607609550 | 74.1239239045046 |
| 44 | 1689 | 1614.87607604412 | 74.1239239558802 |
| 45 | 1778 | 1703.87607604001 | 74.1239239599924 |
| 46 | 1976 | 1901.87607604642 | 74.1239239535843 |
| 47 | 2397 | 2322.87607608969 | 74.1239239103072 |
| 48 | 2654 | 2579.87607609117 | 74.1239239088338 |
| 49 | 2097 | 2033.46520800135 | 63.5347919986547 |
| 50 | 1963 | 1910.05433999375 | 52.9456600062504 |
| 51 | 1677 | 1624.05434002213 | 52.9456599778686 |
| 52 | 1941 | 1888.05433999947 | 52.9456600005342 |
| 53 | 2003 | 1950.05433998964 | 52.9456600103614 |
| 54 | 1813 | 1760.05433999452 | 52.945660005477 |
| 55 | 2012 | 1959.05433999670 | 52.9456600033032 |
| 56 | 1912 | 1859.05433999842 | 52.9456600015772 |
| 57 | 2084 | 2031.05433999477 | 52.945660005227 |
| 58 | 2080 | 2027.05433999862 | 52.9456600013785 |
| 59 | 2118 | 2065.05434002515 | 52.9456599748505 |
| 60 | 2150 | 2097.05434002266 | 52.9456599773418 |
| 61 | 1608 | 1565.6434719931 | 42.3565280068985 |
| 62 | 1503 | 1471.23260401602 | 31.7673959839831 |
| 63 | 1548 | 1516.23260401023 | 31.7673959897685 |
| 64 | 1382 | 1350.23260398999 | 31.7673960100116 |
| 65 | 1731 | 1699.23260401522 | 31.7673959847813 |
| 66 | 1798 | 1766.23260399463 | 31.7673960053684 |
| 67 | 1779 | 1747.23260399296 | 31.7673960070358 |
| 68 | 1887 | 1855.23260399836 | 31.7673960016445 |
| 69 | 2004 | 1972.23260399374 | 31.7673960062635 |
| 70 | 2077 | 2045.23260399894 | 31.7673960010581 |
| 71 | 2092 | 2060.23260401506 | 31.7673959849355 |
| 72 | 2051 | 2019.23260398129 | 31.7673960187132 |
| 73 | 1577 | 1555.82173599293 | 21.1782640070715 |
| 74 | 1356 | 1345.4108679838 | 10.5891320162003 |
| 75 | 1652 | 1641.41086800244 | 10.5891319975626 |
| 76 | 1382 | 1371.41086799036 | 10.5891320096383 |
| 77 | 1519 | 1508.41086798186 | 10.5891320181439 |
| 78 | 1421 | 1410.41086798836 | 10.5891320116383 |
| 79 | 1442 | 1431.4108679874 | 10.5891320126011 |
| 80 | 1543 | 1532.41086799267 | 10.5891320073333 |
| 81 | 1656 | 1645.41086800798 | 10.5891319920226 |
| 82 | 1561 | 1550.41086799022 | 10.5891320097778 |
| 83 | 1905 | 1894.41086798214 | 10.5891320178575 |
| 84 | 2199 | 2188.41086800427 | 10.5891319957320 |
| 85 | 1473 | 1472.99999999147 | 8.5309714847881e-09 |
| 86 | 1655 | 1665.58913198944 | -10.5891319894418 |
| 87 | 1407 | 1417.58913197849 | -10.5891319784932 |
| 88 | 1395 | 1405.58913200096 | -10.5891320009639 |
| 89 | 1530 | 1540.58913199242 | -10.5891319924232 |
| 90 | 1309 | 1319.58913198676 | -10.5891319867612 |
| 91 | 1526 | 1536.58913198925 | -10.5891319892523 |
| 92 | 1327 | 1337.58913198923 | -10.5891319892336 |
| 93 | 1627 | 1637.58913199784 | -10.5891319978396 |
| 94 | 1748 | 1758.58913200389 | -10.5891320038908 |
| 95 | 1958 | 1968.58913199345 | -10.5891319934496 |
| 96 | 2274 | 2284.58913198596 | -10.5891319859629 |
| 97 | 1648 | 1669.17826398493 | -21.178263984926 |
| 98 | 1401 | 1432.76739598534 | -31.767395985339 |
| 99 | 1411 | 1442.76739597894 | -31.767395978937 |
| 100 | 1403 | 1434.76739598148 | -31.7673959814781 |
| 101 | 1394 | 1425.7673959804 | -31.7673959803999 |
| 102 | 1520 | 1551.76739598085 | -31.7673959808525 |
| 103 | 1528 | 1559.76739597966 | -31.7673959796607 |
| 104 | 1643 | 1674.76739598518 | -31.7673959851752 |
| 105 | 1515 | 1546.76739598624 | -31.7673959862392 |
| 106 | 1685 | 1716.76739599315 | -31.7673959931538 |
| 107 | 2000 | 2031.76739597456 | -31.7673959745629 |
| 108 | 2215 | 2246.76739597530 | -31.7673959752963 |
| 109 | 1956 | 1998.35652800073 | -42.3565280007267 |
| 110 | 1462 | 1514.94565996679 | -52.9456599667872 |
| 111 | 1563 | 1615.94565996199 | -52.9456599619887 |
| 112 | 1459 | 1511.94565997284 | -52.9456599728381 |
| 113 | 1446 | 1498.94565998169 | -52.9456599816894 |
| 114 | 1622 | 1674.94565999302 | -52.9456599930232 |
| 115 | 1657 | 1709.94565997231 | -52.9456599723072 |
| 116 | 1638 | 1690.94565997546 | -52.9456599754603 |
| 117 | 1643 | 1695.94565996887 | -52.9456599688679 |
| 118 | 1683 | 1735.94565999349 | -52.9456599934918 |
| 119 | 2050 | 2102.94565996582 | -52.9456599658171 |
| 120 | 2262 | 2314.9456599865 | -52.9456599864978 |
| 121 | 1813 | 1876.53479199858 | -63.53479199858 |
| 122 | 1445 | 1519.12392395686 | -74.1239239568608 |
| 123 | 1762 | 1836.12392398587 | -74.1239239858686 |
| 124 | 1461 | 1535.12392396325 | -74.1239239632467 |
| 125 | 1556 | 1630.123923955 | -74.1239239550008 |
| 126 | 1431 | 1505.12392396003 | -74.1239239600306 |
| 127 | 1427 | 1501.12392398863 | -74.1239239886275 |
| 128 | 1554 | 1628.12392396435 | -74.1239239643534 |
| 129 | 1645 | 1719.12392396028 | -74.1239239602762 |
| 130 | 1653 | 1727.12392399334 | -74.1239239933363 |
| 131 | 2016 | 2090.12392395559 | -74.1239239555913 |
| 132 | 2207 | 2281.1239239859 | -74.1239239859018 |
| 133 | 1665 | 1749.71305595635 | -84.7130559563452 |
| 134 | 1361 | 1456.30218794575 | -95.3021879457539 |
| 135 | 1506 | 1601.30218794073 | -95.3021879407305 |
| 136 | 1360 | 1455.30218795184 | -95.30218795184 |
| 137 | 1453 | 1548.30218794256 | -95.302187942559 |
| 138 | 1522 | 1617.30218795201 | -95.3021879520074 |
| 139 | 1460 | 1555.30218794958 | -95.3021879495821 |
| 140 | 1552 | 1647.30218795469 | -95.3021879546914 |
| 141 | 1548 | 1643.30218794794 | -95.3021879479402 |
| 142 | 1827 | 1922.30218795678 | -95.3021879567757 |
| 143 | 1737 | 1832.30218798105 | -95.302187981048 |
| 144 | 1941 | 2036.30218798159 | -95.3021879815876 |
| 145 | 1474 | 1579.89131989335 | -105.891319893353 |
| 146 | 1458 | 1574.48045193784 | -116.480451937836 |
| 147 | 1542 | 1658.48045193274 | -116.480451932738 |
| 148 | 1404 | 1520.48045194299 | -116.480451942989 |
| 149 | 1522 | 1638.48045193415 | -116.480451934148 |
| 150 | 1385 | 1501.48045193997 | -116.480451939966 |
| 151 | 1641 | 1757.48045189314 | -116.480451893145 |
| 152 | 1510 | 1626.48045194432 | -116.480451944324 |
| 153 | 1681 | 1797.48045194066 | -116.480451940657 |
| 154 | 1938 | 2054.48045189910 | -116.480451899105 |
| 155 | 1868 | 1984.48045193373 | -116.480451933730 |
| 156 | 1726 | 1842.48045187817 | -116.480451878172 |
| 157 | 1456 | 1583.06958389341 | -127.069583893409 |
| 158 | 1445 | 1582.65871592798 | -137.658715927980 |
| 159 | 1456 | 1593.65871591860 | -137.658715918596 |
| 160 | 1365 | 1502.65871593267 | -137.658715932674 |
| 161 | 1487 | 1624.65871592090 | -137.658715920905 |
| 162 | 1558 | 1695.65871589339 | -137.658715893388 |
| 163 | 1488 | 1625.65871593082 | -137.658715930822 |
| 164 | 1684 | 1821.65871589776 | -137.658715897764 |
| 165 | 1594 | 1731.65871592950 | -137.658715929497 |
| 166 | 1850 | 1987.65871589793 | -137.658715897927 |
| 167 | 1998 | 2135.65871592639 | -137.658715926394 |
| 168 | 2079 | 2216.65871592477 | -137.658715924766 |
| 169 | 1494 | 1642.24784792445 | -148.247847924451 |
| 170 | 1057 | 1046.41086798163 | 10.5891320183705 |
| 171 | 1218 | 1207.41086800589 | 10.5891319941119 |
| 172 | 1168 | 1157.41086801969 | 10.5891319803108 |
| 173 | 1236 | 1225.41086800797 | 10.5891319920322 |
| 174 | 1076 | 1065.41086798538 | 10.5891320146191 |
| 175 | 1174 | 1163.41086801578 | 10.5891319842250 |
| 176 | 1139 | 1128.41086798865 | 10.5891320113538 |
| 177 | 1427 | 1416.41086798704 | 10.5891320129593 |
| 178 | 1487 | 1476.41086802202 | 10.5891319779832 |
| 179 | 1483 | 1472.41086797780 | 10.5891320221953 |
| 180 | 1513 | 1502.41086797528 | 10.5891320247218 |
| 181 | 1357 | 1357.00000001252 | -1.25235146697378e-08 |
| 182 | 1165 | 1175.58913200391 | -10.5891320039058 |
| 183 | 1282 | 1292.58913199939 | -10.5891319993891 |
| 184 | 1110 | 1120.58913200904 | -10.5891320090404 |
| 185 | 1297 | 1307.58913200142 | -10.5891320014160 |
| 186 | 1185 | 1195.58913200767 | -10.5891320076747 |
| 187 | 1222 | 1232.58913200699 | -10.5891320069938 |
| 188 | 1284 | 1294.58913201157 | -10.5891320115745 |
| 189 | 1444 | 1454.58913198771 | -10.5891319877134 |
| 190 | 1575 | 1585.58913199394 | -10.5891319939408 |
| 191 | 1737 | 1747.58913200265 | -10.5891320026538 |
| 192 | 1763 | 1773.58913199606 | -10.5891319960567 |
