Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[36])
24	172.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	156.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	143.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	153.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	168.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	185.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	199.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	205.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	197.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
33	199.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
34	200.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
35	193.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
36	179.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	169.1	165.6429	149.4031	184.0478	0.3564	0.0686	0.8375	0.0686
38	169.8	153.7785	126.6498	188.1878	0.1807	0.1914	0.717	0.0707
39	195.5	153.6826	114.0154	211.1165	0.0768	0.2912	0.5011	0.1882
40	194.8	155.5508	102.7697	244.4338	0.1934	0.1892	0.3851	0.2979
41	204.5	157.4301	91.7761	288.2928	0.2404	0.2878	0.3355	0.3699
42	203.8	157.5468	80.5322	342.0727	0.3116	0.309	0.3264	0.4074
43	204.8	154.338	68.9892	403.1763	0.3455	0.3484	0.3438	0.4211
44	204.9	146.737	57.437	465.9787	0.3605	0.3607	0.3776	0.4201
45	240	142.7288	48.6353	563.8712	0.3254	0.3862	0.3956	0.4319
46	248.3	138.4739	41.029	693.3554	0.349	0.3599	0.4133	0.4422
47	258.4	132.0623	34.13	849.1368	0.3649	0.3754	0.4331	0.4483
48	254.9	123.7082	28.0237	1032.2497	0.3886	0.3857	0.452	0.452

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
37	0.0567	0.0209	0.0017	11.9514	0.996	0.998
38	0.1142	0.1042	0.0087	256.6887	21.3907	4.625
39	0.1907	0.2721	0.0227	1748.6979	145.7248	12.0717
40	0.2915	0.2523	0.021	1540.5006	128.3751	11.3303
41	0.4241	0.299	0.0249	2215.5751	184.6313	13.5879
42	0.5976	0.2936	0.0245	2139.3608	178.2801	13.3522
43	0.8226	0.327	0.0272	2546.4122	212.201	14.5671
44	1.11	0.3964	0.033	3382.933	281.9111	16.7902
45	1.5054	0.6815	0.0568	9461.6866	788.4739	28.0798
46	2.0444	0.7931	0.0661	12061.7782	1005.1482	31.7041
47	2.7703	0.9567	0.0797	15961.2269	1330.1022	36.4706
48	3.7471	1.0605	0.0884	17211.2805	1434.2734	37.8718