Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[48])
36	172.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	156.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	143.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	153.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
40	168.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	185.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
42	199.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
43	205.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
44	197.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
45	199.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
46	200.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
47	193.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
48	179.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	169.1	172.3087	156.1771	191.2818	0.3701	0.2257	0.9499	0.2257
50	169.8	167.4499	140.9193	202.9821	0.4484	0.4637	0.9049	0.2514
51	195.5	164.1557	129.0157	217.5631	0.125	0.4179	0.6508	0.2854
52	194.8	161.8957	119.5604	234.5693	0.1874	0.1824	0.4261	0.3165
53	204.5	160.3326	111.9101	253.7462	0.177	0.2348	0.2965	0.343
54	203.8	159.2453	105.6056	274.9835	0.2253	0.2217	0.2456	0.3652
55	204.8	158.4861	100.3187	298.2686	0.258	0.2626	0.2553	0.3836
56	204.9	157.9544	95.8142	323.6615	0.2894	0.2898	0.32	0.399
57	240	157.5814	91.921	351.2828	0.2021	0.316	0.3354	0.4118
58	248.3	157.3194	88.5129	381.3078	0.213	0.2347	0.3528	0.4227
59	258.4	157.1351	85.4959	413.9662	0.2198	0.2433	0.3901	0.4319
60	254.9	157.0054	82.7984	449.5436	0.2559	0.2485	0.4398	0.4398

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
49	0.0562	-0.0186	0.0016	10.2959	0.858	0.9263
50	0.1083	0.014	0.0012	5.5229	0.4602	0.6784
51	0.166	0.1909	0.0159	982.467	81.8722	9.0483
52	0.229	0.2032	0.0169	1082.6948	90.2246	9.4987
53	0.2973	0.2755	0.023	1950.7636	162.5636	12.75
54	0.3708	0.2798	0.0233	1985.1216	165.4268	12.8618
55	0.45	0.2922	0.0244	2144.9815	178.7485	13.3697
56	0.5352	0.2972	0.0248	2203.8888	183.6574	13.552
57	0.6272	0.523	0.0436	6792.8247	566.0687	23.7922
58	0.7264	0.5783	0.0482	8277.4775	689.7898	26.2638
59	0.8339	0.6444	0.0537	10254.5842	854.5487	29.2327
60	0.9506	0.6235	0.052	9583.3516	798.6126	28.2597