Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[60])
48	1.2286	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	1.2613	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
50	1.2646	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
51	1.2262	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
52	1.1985	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
53	1.2007	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
54	1.2138	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
55	1.2266	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
56	1.2176	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
57	1.2218	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
58	1.249	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
59	1.2991	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
60	1.3408	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
61	1.3119	1.3508	1.2915	1.4122	0.1072	0.6252	0.9979	0.6252
62	1.3014	1.3508	1.2509	1.457	0.1809	0.7636	0.9442	0.5733
63	1.3201	1.3507	1.2232	1.4886	0.3318	0.7582	0.9616	0.556
64	1.2938	1.3506	1.201	1.5148	0.2487	0.6422	0.9653	0.5467
65	1.2694	1.3506	1.1821	1.5378	0.1975	0.7241	0.9418	0.541
66	1.2165	1.3507	1.1655	1.5587	0.103	0.7781	0.9014	0.5371
67	1.2037	1.3507	1.1505	1.5779	0.1023	0.8765	0.8579	0.5341
68	1.2292	1.3507	1.1367	1.5958	0.1657	0.8801	0.8564	0.5315
69	1.2256	1.3507	1.1239	1.6127	0.1747	0.8183	0.8325	0.5295
70	1.2015	1.3508	1.112	1.6289	0.1464	0.8111	0.7634	0.528
71	1.1786	1.3509	1.1009	1.6445	0.125	0.8408	0.6353	0.5269
72	1.1856	1.351	1.0903	1.6594	0.1465	0.8635	0.5259	0.5259

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
61	0.0232	-0.0288	0.0024	0.0015	1e-04	0.0112
62	0.0401	-0.0366	0.003	0.0024	2e-04	0.0143
63	0.0521	-0.0227	0.0019	9e-04	1e-04	0.0088
64	0.062	-0.0421	0.0035	0.0032	3e-04	0.0164
65	0.0707	-0.0601	0.005	0.0066	5e-04	0.0235
66	0.0786	-0.0993	0.0083	0.018	0.0015	0.0387
67	0.0858	-0.1088	0.0091	0.0216	0.0018	0.0424
68	0.0926	-0.0899	0.0075	0.0148	0.0012	0.0351
69	0.099	-0.0926	0.0077	0.0156	0.0013	0.0361
70	0.1051	-0.1105	0.0092	0.0223	0.0019	0.0431
71	0.1109	-0.1276	0.0106	0.0297	0.0025	0.0497
72	0.1165	-0.1224	0.0102	0.0274	0.0023	0.0478