Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[48])
36	117.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	119.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	116.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	111	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
40	112.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	130.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
42	109.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
43	118.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
44	123.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
45	101.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
46	112.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
47	128	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
48	129.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	125.8	124.3669	110.0703	137.1816	0.4133	0.2117	0.7576	0.2117
50	119.5	114.5163	97.357	129.4202	0.2561	0.0689	0.4124	0.0236
51	115.7	108.6408	90.3727	124.2515	0.1877	0.0864	0.3835	0.0043
52	113.6	112.0566	94.4514	127.2489	0.4211	0.3192	0.4823	0.0118
53	129.7	131.253	116.5836	144.4401	0.4087	0.9957	0.5387	0.597
54	112	107.4414	88.9273	123.2042	0.2854	0.0028	0.4183	0.0029
55	116.8	118.2247	101.6931	132.7128	0.4236	0.8001	0.469	0.0619
56	127	124.9993	109.4953	138.7819	0.388	0.8782	0.5621	0.2565
57	112.1	102.3669	82.7247	118.8048	0.1229	0.0017	0.5364	6e-04
58	113.3	112.9674	95.5303	128.0517	0.4828	0.5449	0.5087	0.0153
59	120.5	127.3729	112.1974	140.9236	0.1601	0.9791	0.4639	0.3737
60	127.7	129.9252	115.0939	143.2288	0.3715	0.9175	0.5191	0.5191

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
49	0.0526	0.0115	0.001	2.0537	0.1711	0.4137
50	0.0664	0.0435	0.0036	24.8371	2.0698	1.4387
51	0.0733	0.065	0.0054	49.8322	4.1527	2.0378
52	0.0692	0.0138	0.0011	2.3822	0.1985	0.4456
53	0.0513	-0.0118	0.001	2.4118	0.201	0.4483
54	0.0749	0.0424	0.0035	20.7806	1.7317	1.3159
55	0.0625	-0.0121	0.001	2.0299	0.1692	0.4113
56	0.0563	0.016	0.0013	4.0028	0.3336	0.5776
57	0.0819	0.0951	0.0079	94.734	7.8945	2.8097
58	0.0681	0.0029	2e-04	0.1106	0.0092	0.096
59	0.0543	-0.054	0.0045	47.2369	3.9364	1.984
60	0.0522	-0.0171	0.0014	4.9513	0.4126	0.6423