Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[24])
12	335.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	338.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	310.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	322.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	289.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	300.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	360.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	327.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	304.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	362	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	287.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	286.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	358.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	346	342.2395	317.6836	366.7954	0.382	0.1013	0.6173	0.1013
26	329.9	330.0458	305.4484	354.6431	0.4954	0.1018	0.9422	0.0124
27	334.3	340.0154	315.4169	364.6138	0.3244	0.7899	0.9233	0.0737
28	303.7	292.8942	262.1747	323.6138	0.2453	0.0041	0.5907	0
29	307.6	315.6001	284.8057	346.3945	0.3053	0.7756	0.8269	0.0034
30	351.7	374.8631	344.0673	405.6588	0.0702	1	0.818	0.8555
31	324.6	330.6366	296.903	364.3702	0.3629	0.1105	0.5769	0.0546
32	311.9	315.2198	281.3999	349.0398	0.4237	0.2934	0.7404	0.0064
33	361.5	373.3106	339.4897	407.1315	0.2468	0.9998	0.7439	0.8094
34	271.1	290.819	255.4675	326.1706	0.1371	0	0.5665	1e-04
35	286.5	294.4768	259.0428	329.9108	0.3295	0.902	0.6784	2e-04
36	352.8	367.1388	331.7044	402.5733	0.2139	1	0.6895	0.6895
37	322.4	344.9176	297.0125	392.8227	0.1784	0.3735	0.4823	0.2934
38	335	336.3743	288.3272	384.4213	0.4776	0.7157	0.6042	0.1866
39	322.2	347.059	299.0108	395.1073	0.1553	0.6886	0.6986	0.3247
40	313.6	295.2326	241.4643	349.0008	0.2516	0.1628	0.3788	0.0109
41	323.3	320.3958	266.4654	374.3262	0.458	0.5975	0.679	0.0847
42	379.1	380.3993	326.4679	434.3306	0.4812	0.981	0.8515	0.7901
43	315.6	332.652	275.7826	389.5215	0.2784	0.0547	0.6093	0.1893
44	353.6	318.8655	261.8418	375.8891	0.1163	0.5447	0.5946	0.0882
45	371.7	377.6525	320.6284	434.6767	0.4189	0.7958	0.7106	0.7481
46	282.9	292.5374	233.9424	351.1324	0.3736	0.004	0.7633	0.014
47	298.8	297.2573	238.5305	355.9841	0.4795	0.6841	0.6402	0.021
48	361.8	370.5377	311.8108	429.2646	0.3853	0.9917	0.7231	0.6597
49	365.9	346.3693	278.2003	414.5383	0.2872	0.3286	0.7546	0.3669
50	357.6	338.5021	270.1523	406.8518	0.292	0.216	0.54	0.2861
51	335.4	349.7155	281.3652	418.0657	0.3407	0.4106	0.785	0.4039
52	340.1	296.4494	223.3547	369.5442	0.1209	0.1481	0.3228	0.0489
53	337.8	322.0295	248.7472	395.3118	0.3366	0.3144	0.4864	0.1667
54	389.6	382.4727	309.1901	455.7553	0.4244	0.8839	0.5359	0.7419
55	342.5	333.665	257.8667	409.4633	0.4096	0.074	0.6798	0.2629
56	354.6	320.124	244.1568	396.0912	0.1869	0.2819	0.1939	0.163
57	391.6	379.2691	303.3018	455.2364	0.3752	0.7378	0.5774	0.7066
58	317.7	293.3756	216.0434	370.7078	0.2688	0.0064	0.6047	0.0502
59	312.8	298.2299	220.7585	375.7014	0.3562	0.3112	0.4942	0.0646
60	356.2	371.797	294.3255	449.2685	0.3466	0.9322	0.5998	0.6346

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
25	0.0366	0.011	3e-04	14.1413	0.3928	0.6267
26	0.038	-4e-04	0	0.0212	6e-04	0.0243
27	0.0369	-0.0168	5e-04	32.6654	0.9074	0.9526
28	0.0535	0.0369	0.001	116.7646	3.2435	1.801
29	0.0498	-0.0253	7e-04	64.0022	1.7778	1.3334
30	0.0419	-0.0618	0.0017	536.5271	14.9035	3.8605
31	0.0521	-0.0183	5e-04	36.4407	1.0122	1.0061
32	0.0547	-0.0105	3e-04	11.0212	0.3061	0.5533
33	0.0462	-0.0316	9e-04	139.4904	3.8747	1.9684
34	0.062	-0.0678	0.0019	388.8395	10.8011	3.2865
35	0.0614	-0.0271	8e-04	63.6291	1.7675	1.3295
36	0.0492	-0.0391	0.0011	205.6019	5.7112	2.3898
37	0.0709	-0.0653	0.0018	507.0408	14.0845	3.7529
38	0.0729	-0.0041	1e-04	1.8886	0.0525	0.229
39	0.0706	-0.0716	0.002	617.9706	17.1659	4.1432
40	0.0929	0.0622	0.0017	337.3624	9.3712	3.0612
41	0.0859	0.0091	3e-04	8.4346	0.2343	0.484
42	0.0723	-0.0034	1e-04	1.6881	0.0469	0.2165
43	0.0872	-0.0513	0.0014	290.7719	8.077	2.842
44	0.0912	0.1089	0.003	1206.4886	33.5136	5.7891
45	0.077	-0.0158	4e-04	35.4324	0.9842	0.9921
46	0.1022	-0.0329	9e-04	92.8798	2.58	1.6062
47	0.1008	0.0052	1e-04	2.3799	0.0661	0.2571
48	0.0809	-0.0236	7e-04	76.3476	2.1208	1.4563
49	0.1004	0.0564	0.0016	381.4473	10.5958	3.2551
50	0.103	0.0564	0.0016	364.7314	10.1314	3.183
51	0.0997	-0.0409	0.0011	204.933	5.6926	2.3859
52	0.1258	0.1472	0.0041	1905.3742	52.9271	7.2751
53	0.1161	0.049	0.0014	248.7086	6.9086	2.6284
54	0.0978	0.0186	5e-04	50.7982	1.4111	1.1879
55	0.1159	0.0265	7e-04	78.0574	2.1683	1.4725
56	0.1211	0.1077	0.003	1188.5953	33.0165	5.746
57	0.1022	0.0325	9e-04	152.0508	4.2236	2.0551
58	0.1345	0.0829	0.0023	591.6767	16.4355	4.0541
59	0.1325	0.0489	0.0014	212.2868	5.8969	2.4283
60	0.1063	-0.042	0.0012	243.2662	6.7574	2.5995