Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[41])
40	199.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	219.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
42	211.1	222.6108	192.9704	256.804	0.2547	0.5753	0.5753	0.5753
43	215.2	219.1569	178.8711	268.516	0.4376	0.6255	0.6255	0.4977
44	240.2	213.0366	167.5861	270.8136	0.1784	0.4707	0.4707	0.4159
45	242.2	211.6024	163.7544	273.4313	0.166	0.1823	0.1823	0.4036
46	240.7	213.0837	162.6742	279.1141	0.2062	0.1937	0.1937	0.4268
47	255.4	215.0124	161.5713	286.1296	0.1328	0.2395	0.2395	0.453
48	253	215.5098	158.946	292.2028	0.169	0.154	0.154	0.4614
49	218.2	214.9426	155.6472	296.827	0.4689	0.1812	0.1812	0.4585
50	203.7	214.3002	152.6819	300.7861	0.4051	0.4648	0.4648	0.4549
51	205.6	214.1457	150.3845	304.941	0.4268	0.5892	0.5892	0.4557
52	215.6	214.35	148.482	309.4377	0.4897	0.5716	0.5716	0.4594
53	188.5	214.5655	146.6336	313.9687	0.3036	0.4919	0.4919	0.4628
54	202.9	214.6121	144.7158	318.2677	0.4124	0.6893	0.6893	0.4647
55	214	214.539	142.7991	322.3201	0.4961	0.5838	0.5838	0.4655
56	230.3	214.4666	140.9804	326.2575	0.3907	0.5033	0.5033	0.4662
57	230	214.4529	139.2867	330.1826	0.3962	0.3942	0.3942	0.4673
58	241	214.4789	137.6854	334.1035	0.3319	0.3996	0.3996	0.4685
59	259.6	214.5032	136.1375	337.979	0.237	0.337	0.337	0.4697
60	247.8	214.5071	134.6278	341.7815	0.3041	0.2437	0.2437	0.4706
61	270.3	214.4979	133.1611	345.5164	0.2019	0.3092	0.3092	0.4714

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
42	0.0784	-0.0517	0.0026	132.4993	6.625	2.5739
43	0.1149	-0.0181	9e-04	15.6571	0.7829	0.8848
44	0.1384	0.1275	0.0064	737.8484	36.8924	6.0739
45	0.1491	0.1446	0.0072	936.2147	46.8107	6.8418
46	0.1581	0.1296	0.0065	762.6594	38.133	6.1752
47	0.1688	0.1878	0.0094	1631.16	81.558	9.0309
48	0.1816	0.174	0.0087	1405.5165	70.2758	8.3831
49	0.1944	0.0152	8e-04	10.611	0.5305	0.7284
50	0.2059	-0.0495	0.0025	112.3652	5.6183	2.3703
51	0.2163	-0.0399	0.002	73.0296	3.6515	1.9109
52	0.2263	0.0058	3e-04	1.5625	0.0781	0.2795
53	0.2364	-0.1215	0.0061	679.4112	33.9706	5.8284
54	0.2464	-0.0546	0.0027	137.1739	6.8587	2.6189
55	0.2563	-0.0025	1e-04	0.2906	0.0145	0.1205
56	0.2659	0.0738	0.0037	250.6969	12.5348	3.5405
57	0.2753	0.0725	0.0036	241.7119	12.0856	3.4764
58	0.2846	0.1237	0.0062	703.3708	35.1685	5.9303
59	0.2937	0.2102	0.0105	2033.7235	101.6862	10.084
60	0.3027	0.1552	0.0078	1108.4185	55.4209	7.4445
61	0.3116	0.2602	0.013	3113.8746	155.6937	12.4777