Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[68])
67	98	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
68	99.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
69	97.4	103.2893	89.6342	116.9444	0.199	0.7067	0.7067	0.7067
70	105.6	99.8848	85.2465	114.523	0.2221	0.6303	0.6303	0.5205
71	117.5	101.0012	86.3571	115.6452	0.0136	0.2691	0.2691	0.5796
72	107.4	102.937	87.3257	118.5483	0.2876	0.0337	0.0337	0.667
73	97.8	99.3587	83.7232	114.9942	0.4225	0.1567	0.1567	0.4929
74	91.5	100.4211	84.7089	116.1333	0.1329	0.6282	0.6282	0.5457
75	107.7	102.3237	84.4872	120.1602	0.2773	0.8829	0.8829	0.6218
76	100.1	100.0134	81.7472	118.2795	0.4963	0.2047	0.2047	0.522
77	96.6	101.0532	82.6435	119.463	0.3177	0.5404	0.5404	0.5657
78	106.8	102.1386	82.8787	121.3984	0.3176	0.7135	0.7135	0.6058
79	98	99.9995	80.6242	119.3748	0.4199	0.2457	0.2457	0.5201
80	98.6	100.8482	81.3101	120.3863	0.4108	0.6125	0.6125	0.5538

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
69	0.0675	-0.057	0.0048	34.6841	2.8903	1.7001
70	0.0748	0.0572	0.0048	32.6639	2.722	1.6498
71	0.074	0.1634	0.0136	272.2119	22.6843	4.7628
72	0.0774	0.0434	0.0036	19.9182	1.6598	1.2884
73	0.0803	-0.0157	0.0013	2.4296	0.2025	0.45
74	0.0798	-0.0888	0.0074	79.5854	6.6321	2.5753
75	0.0889	0.0525	0.0044	28.9045	2.4087	1.552
76	0.0932	9e-04	1e-04	0.0075	6e-04	0.025
77	0.0929	-0.0441	0.0037	19.8314	1.6526	1.2855
78	0.0962	0.0456	0.0038	21.7291	1.8108	1.3456
79	0.0989	-0.02	0.0017	3.998	0.3332	0.5772
80	0.0988	-0.0223	0.0019	5.0544	0.4212	0.649