Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[49])
37	8.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
40	8.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	8.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
42	8.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
43	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
44	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
45	8.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
46	8.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
47	8.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
48	8.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	8.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
50	8.2	8.2134	7.974	8.4528	0.4564	0.8234	0	0.8234
51	8.1	8.2036	7.8648	8.5425	0.2745	0.5083	0.002	0.7255
52	8.1	8.797	8.3898	9.2042	4e-04	0.9996	0.8285	0.9996
53	7.9	8.6089	8.1906	9.0272	4e-04	0.9915	0.8362	0.9915
54	7.7	8.7015	8.2723	9.1306	0	0.9999	0.9157	0.997
55	8.1	8.8695	8.4262	9.3128	3e-04	1	0.7731	0.9997
56	8	8.8629	8.3837	9.3421	2e-04	0.9991	0.7474	0.9991
57	7.7	8.6986	8.1863	9.2109	1e-04	0.9962	0.7763	0.989
58	7.8	7.7209	7.1816	8.2602	0.3868	0.5302	0.0177	0.0841
59	7.6	7.6329	7.0781	8.1876	0.4538	0.2774	0.0092	0.0494
60	7.4	7.7797	7.2096	8.3498	0.0959	0.7317	0.0368	0.1354
61	7.7	8.7541	8.1669	9.3412	2e-04	1	0.9855	0.9855

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
50	0.0149	-0.0016	1e-04	2e-04	0	0.0039
51	0.0211	-0.0126	0.0011	0.0107	9e-04	0.0299
52	0.0236	-0.0792	0.0066	0.4859	0.0405	0.2012
53	0.0248	-0.0823	0.0069	0.5025	0.0419	0.2046
54	0.0252	-0.1151	0.0096	1.003	0.0836	0.2891
55	0.0255	-0.0868	0.0072	0.5921	0.0493	0.2221
56	0.0276	-0.0974	0.0081	0.7446	0.062	0.2491
57	0.03	-0.1148	0.0096	0.9972	0.0831	0.2883
58	0.0356	0.0102	9e-04	0.0063	5e-04	0.0228
59	0.0371	-0.0043	4e-04	0.0011	1e-04	0.0095
60	0.0374	-0.0488	0.0041	0.1442	0.012	0.1096
61	0.0342	-0.1204	0.01	1.1111	0.0926	0.3043