Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[48])
36	0.74	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	0.74	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	0.73	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	0.76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
40	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	0.83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
42	0.81	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
43	0.83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
44	0.88	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
45	0.89	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
46	0.93	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
47	0.91	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
48	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	0.86	0.9	0.8473	0.9574	0.086	0.5	1	0.5
50	0.88	0.9025	0.829	0.9855	0.2973	0.8424	1	0.5239
51	0.93	0.8951	0.8072	0.997	0.2509	0.6142	0.9953	0.4624
52	0.98	0.8859	0.7869	1.0032	0.058	0.2306	0.9243	0.4068
53	0.97	0.8795	0.7709	1.0107	0.0882	0.0666	0.77	0.3796
54	1.03	0.8837	0.765	1.0299	0.0249	0.1236	0.8385	0.4135
55	1.06	0.8795	0.7531	1.0377	0.0127	0.0311	0.73	0.3996
56	1.06	0.8696	0.7375	1.0374	0.0131	0.0131	0.4517	0.3613
57	1.08	0.8677	0.7289	1.0466	0.01	0.0176	0.4037	0.3619
58	1.09	0.8606	0.7168	1.0483	0.0083	0.011	0.2344	0.3405
59	1.04	0.8641	0.7134	1.0635	0.0419	0.0132	0.326	0.3622
60	1	0.8659	0.7089	1.0763	0.1058	0.0524	0.3754	0.3754

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
49	0.0325	-0.0444	0.0037	0.0016	1e-04	0.0115
50	0.0469	-0.025	0.0021	5e-04	0	0.0065
51	0.0581	0.039	0.0033	0.0012	1e-04	0.0101
52	0.0676	0.1062	0.0089	0.0089	7e-04	0.0272
53	0.0761	0.1029	0.0086	0.0082	7e-04	0.0261
54	0.0844	0.1655	0.0138	0.0214	0.0018	0.0422
55	0.0918	0.2053	0.0171	0.0326	0.0027	0.0521
56	0.0984	0.2189	0.0182	0.0362	0.003	0.055
57	0.1051	0.2446	0.0204	0.0451	0.0038	0.0613
58	0.1112	0.2665	0.0222	0.0526	0.0044	0.0662
59	0.1177	0.2035	0.017	0.0309	0.0026	0.0508
60	0.1239	0.1548	0.0129	0.018	0.0015	0.0387