Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[48])
36	8.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	8.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	8.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
40	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	8.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
42	8.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
43	8.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
44	8.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
45	8.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
46	8.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
47	8.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
48	8.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	7.9	7.9245	7.3627	8.4862	0.466	0.2701	0.0485	0.2701
50	7.7	7.9869	7.184	8.7898	0.2419	0.584	0.1566	0.3912
51	8.1	8.1147	7.127	9.1024	0.4884	0.7947	0.1227	0.5116
52	8	8.0962	7.0817	9.1108	0.4262	0.4971	0.1217	0.4971
53	7.7	7.8879	6.8503	8.9254	0.3613	0.4161	0.1238	0.3443
54	7.8	7.7311	6.6715	8.7906	0.4493	0.5229	0.1463	0.2475
55	7.6	7.7445	6.6028	8.8861	0.4021	0.462	0.1701	0.2708
56	7.4	7.7383	6.5153	8.9612	0.2939	0.5877	0.184	0.281
57	7.7	7.7199	6.42	9.0198	0.488	0.6852	0.2833	0.2833
58	7.8	7.8104	6.4736	9.1473	0.4939	0.5643	0.2839	0.3356
59	7.5	7.7258	6.3554	9.0961	0.3734	0.4577	0.2962	0.2962
60	7.2	7.7335	6.3309	9.1362	0.228	0.6279	0.3043	0.3043

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
49	0.0362	-0.0031	3e-04	6e-04	0	0.0071
50	0.0513	-0.0359	0.003	0.0823	0.0069	0.0828
51	0.0621	-0.0018	2e-04	2e-04	0	0.0042
52	0.0639	-0.0119	0.001	0.0093	8e-04	0.0278
53	0.0671	-0.0238	0.002	0.0353	0.0029	0.0542
54	0.0699	0.0089	7e-04	0.0048	4e-04	0.0199
55	0.0752	-0.0187	0.0016	0.0209	0.0017	0.0417
56	0.0806	-0.0437	0.0036	0.1144	0.0095	0.0976
57	0.0859	-0.0026	2e-04	4e-04	0	0.0057
58	0.0873	-0.0013	1e-04	1e-04	0	0.003
59	0.0905	-0.0292	0.0024	0.051	0.0042	0.0652
60	0.0925	-0.069	0.0057	0.2847	0.0237	0.154