Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[36])
24	172.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	156.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	143.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	153.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	168.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	185.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	199.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	205.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	197.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
33	199.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
34	200.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
35	193.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
36	179.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	169.1	165.5302	146.6831	184.3773	0.3552	0.0717	0.8288	0.0717
38	169.8	153.1952	117.6657	188.7246	0.1798	0.1901	0.6998	0.0726
39	195.5	152.7404	98.1924	207.2884	0.0622	0.2699	0.4877	0.1672
40	194.8	155.0717	79.2514	230.892	0.1522	0.148	0.3613	0.263
41	204.5	158.3492	59.1719	257.5266	0.1809	0.2357	0.2937	0.3373
42	203.8	160.1023	35.636	284.5686	0.2457	0.2422	0.2654	0.3794
43	204.8	157.3346	5.7762	308.8929	0.2697	0.274	0.2671	0.3867
44	204.9	147.5228	-32.8227	327.8682	0.2665	0.2668	0.2935	0.3637
45	240	142.9677	-67.7681	353.7035	0.1834	0.2823	0.2992	0.3667
46	248.3	137.7819	-104.8688	380.4325	0.186	0.2045	0.3062	0.3678
47	258.4	128.5483	-147.4731	404.5697	0.1782	0.1976	0.3218	0.3585
48	254.9	115.4773	-195.3107	426.2653	0.1896	0.1837	0.343	0.343

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
37	0.0581	0.0216	0.0018	12.7434	1.0619	1.0305
38	0.1183	0.1084	0.009	275.7209	22.9767	4.7934
39	0.1822	0.2799	0.0233	1828.3845	152.3654	12.3436
40	0.2495	0.2562	0.0213	1578.3375	131.5281	11.4686
41	0.3196	0.2914	0.0243	2129.8928	177.4911	13.3226
42	0.3966	0.2729	0.0227	1909.488	159.124	12.6144
43	0.4915	0.3017	0.0251	2252.9674	187.7473	13.7021
44	0.6237	0.3889	0.0324	3292.148	274.3457	16.5634
45	0.752	0.6787	0.0566	9415.2648	784.6054	28.0108
46	0.8985	0.8021	0.0668	12214.2602	1017.855	31.9038
47	1.0955	1.0101	0.0842	16861.4664	1405.1222	37.485
48	1.3731	1.2074	0.1006	19438.6927	1619.8911	40.2479