Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[129])
117	115.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
118	115.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
119	110.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
120	116	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
121	119.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
122	126.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
123	127.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
124	131.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
125	140.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
126	137.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
127	143	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
128	134.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
129	139.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
130	159.3	140.7192	129.3007	153.1461	0.0017	0.5514	1	0.5514
131	170.4	139.5757	121.6337	160.1644	0.0017	0.0302	0.9969	0.4877
132	175	140.5375	117.4952	168.0987	0.0071	0.0168	0.9595	0.5181
133	175.8	142.9933	115.5076	177.0194	0.0294	0.0326	0.9147	0.5707
134	180.9	145.2793	113.9188	185.2731	0.0404	0.0674	0.8213	0.604
135	180.3	146.8472	112.1367	192.3019	0.0746	0.071	0.7943	0.6177
136	169.6	148.074	110.3776	198.6446	0.2021	0.1058	0.7422	0.6243
137	172.3	150.0609	109.3922	205.849	0.2173	0.2462	0.6342	0.6394
138	184.8	145.3259	103.757	203.5487	0.0919	0.1819	0.6065	0.5725
139	177.7	141.937	99.3696	202.7393	0.1245	0.0835	0.4863	0.5262
140	184.6	141.788	97.4372	206.326	0.0968	0.1377	0.5876	0.5229
141	211.4	144.2419	97.3837	213.647	0.0289	0.1272	0.5488	0.5488

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
130	0.0451	0.132	0.011	345.246	28.7705	5.3638
131	0.0753	0.2208	0.0184	950.1353	79.1779	8.8982
132	0.1001	0.2452	0.0204	1187.6624	98.9719	9.9485
133	0.1214	0.2294	0.0191	1076.2791	89.6899	9.4705
134	0.1405	0.2452	0.0204	1268.8331	105.7361	10.2828
135	0.1579	0.2278	0.019	1119.0907	93.2576	9.657
136	0.1742	0.1454	0.0121	463.3684	38.614	6.214
137	0.1897	0.1482	0.0124	494.5776	41.2148	6.4199
138	0.2044	0.2716	0.0226	1558.2064	129.8505	11.3952
139	0.2186	0.252	0.021	1278.992	106.5827	10.3239
140	0.2322	0.3019	0.0252	1832.8684	152.739	12.3588
141	0.2455	0.4656	0.0388	4510.2084	375.8507	19.3869