Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[39])
27	8.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	8.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	8.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	8.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	8.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
33	8.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
34	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
35	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
36	8.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	8.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	8.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
40	8.7	8.8078	8.3193	9.2963	0.3327	0.6673	0.7978	0.6673
41	8.5	8.7827	8.0605	9.505	0.2214	0.5888	0.7786	0.5888
42	8.3	8.6668	7.7661	9.5674	0.2124	0.6417	0.8913	0.4712
43	8.3	8.5948	7.6645	9.5251	0.2673	0.7327	0.8514	0.4123
44	8.3	8.5328	7.5854	9.4803	0.315	0.685	0.8648	0.3647
45	8.1	8.6229	7.6605	9.5852	0.1435	0.7446	0.5186	0.4376
46	8.2	8.7012	7.6743	9.7281	0.1694	0.8744	0.5009	0.5009
47	8.1	8.7143	7.6089	9.8197	0.138	0.8191	0.5101	0.5101
48	8.1	8.7519	7.5691	9.9347	0.14	0.86	0.5994	0.5343
49	7.9	8.6505	7.4293	9.8716	0.1142	0.8115	0.6562	0.4683
50	7.7	8.6433	7.3945	9.8922	0.0694	0.8783	0.6487	0.4646
51	8.1	8.752	7.4784	10.0256	0.1579	0.9473	0.5319	0.5319

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
40	0.0283	-0.0122	0.001	0.0116	0.001	0.0311
41	0.042	-0.0322	0.0027	0.0799	0.0067	0.0816
42	0.053	-0.0423	0.0035	0.1345	0.0112	0.1059
43	0.0552	-0.0343	0.0029	0.0869	0.0072	0.0851
44	0.0566	-0.0273	0.0023	0.0542	0.0045	0.0672
45	0.0569	-0.0606	0.0051	0.2734	0.0228	0.1509
46	0.0602	-0.0576	0.0048	0.2512	0.0209	0.1447
47	0.0647	-0.0705	0.0059	0.3774	0.0314	0.1773
48	0.069	-0.0745	0.0062	0.425	0.0354	0.1882
49	0.072	-0.0868	0.0072	0.5632	0.0469	0.2166
50	0.0737	-0.1091	0.0091	0.8899	0.0742	0.2723
51	0.0742	-0.0745	0.0062	0.425	0.0354	0.1882