Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[48])
36	8.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	8.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	8.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
40	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	8.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
42	8.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
43	8.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
44	8.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
45	8.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
46	8.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
47	8.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
48	8.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	7.9	7.9772	7.5203	8.4341	0.3703	0.2991	0.0348	0.2991
50	7.7	8.0398	7.3667	8.7128	0.1612	0.658	0.1471	0.4304
51	8.1	8.1963	7.3607	9.0319	0.4107	0.8778	0.1187	0.5893
52	8	8.2385	7.3745	9.1024	0.2943	0.6233	0.1475	0.6233
53	7.7	8.1313	7.2501	9.0126	0.1687	0.6149	0.2061	0.5278
54	7.8	7.9839	7.0862	8.8816	0.3441	0.7323	0.245	0.3999
55	7.6	7.9516	6.9925	8.9106	0.2362	0.6216	0.2382	0.3808
56	7.4	7.9946	6.9635	9.0256	0.1292	0.7734	0.2808	0.4206
57	7.7	7.9373	6.8375	9.0372	0.3362	0.8308	0.3859	0.3859
58	7.8	7.9913	6.8557	9.1269	0.3706	0.6924	0.3593	0.4256
59	7.5	7.9369	6.7741	9.0996	0.2307	0.5912	0.3916	0.3916
60	7.2	7.8695	6.6813	9.0576	0.1347	0.7289	0.3519	0.3519

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
49	0.0292	-0.0097	8e-04	0.006	5e-04	0.0223
50	0.0427	-0.0423	0.0035	0.1155	0.0096	0.0981
51	0.052	-0.0117	0.001	0.0093	8e-04	0.0278
52	0.0535	-0.0289	0.0024	0.0569	0.0047	0.0688
53	0.0553	-0.053	0.0044	0.186	0.0155	0.1245
54	0.0574	-0.023	0.0019	0.0338	0.0028	0.0531
55	0.0615	-0.0442	0.0037	0.1236	0.0103	0.1015
56	0.0658	-0.0744	0.0062	0.3535	0.0295	0.1716
57	0.0707	-0.0299	0.0025	0.0563	0.0047	0.0685
58	0.0725	-0.0239	0.002	0.0366	0.003	0.0552
59	0.0747	-0.055	0.0046	0.1908	0.0159	0.1261
60	0.077	-0.0851	0.0071	0.4482	0.0373	0.1933