Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[48])
36	127.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	117.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	119.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	116.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
40	111	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	112.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
42	130.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
43	109.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
44	118.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
45	123.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
46	101.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
47	112.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
48	128	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	129.6	123.3962	112.6003	134.1921	0.13	0.2016	0.8697	0.2016
50	125.8	121.0505	110.0817	132.0193	0.198	0.0633	0.5884	0.1072
51	119.5	119.8368	108.7656	130.908	0.4762	0.1456	0.7402	0.0742
52	115.7	107.6702	94.9122	120.4283	0.1087	0.0346	0.3045	9e-04
53	113.6	112.6846	99.7113	125.6578	0.445	0.3243	0.5171	0.0103
54	129.7	129.2223	116.1083	142.3364	0.4715	0.9902	0.4184	0.5725
55	112	109.825	96.1031	123.5469	0.378	0.0023	0.5412	0.0047
56	116.8	113.6633	99.7648	127.5617	0.3291	0.5927	0.2344	0.0216
57	127	127.7478	113.7242	141.7714	0.4584	0.937	0.7046	0.4859
58	112.9	107.7889	93.4953	122.0825	0.2417	0.0042	0.802	0.0028
59	113.3	113.4561	99.0373	127.8749	0.4915	0.5301	0.5355	0.024
60	121.7	130.0424	115.5293	144.5554	0.1299	0.9881	0.6087	0.6087

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
49	0.0446	0.0503	0.0042	38.4871	3.2073	1.7909
50	0.0462	0.0392	0.0033	22.5579	1.8798	1.3711
51	0.0471	-0.0028	2e-04	0.1134	0.0095	0.0972
52	0.0605	0.0746	0.0062	64.4772	5.3731	2.318
53	0.0587	0.0081	7e-04	0.838	0.0698	0.2643
54	0.0518	0.0037	3e-04	0.2282	0.019	0.1379
55	0.0637	0.0198	0.0017	4.7305	0.3942	0.6279
56	0.0624	0.0276	0.0023	9.839	0.8199	0.9055
57	0.056	-0.0059	5e-04	0.5592	0.0466	0.2159
58	0.0677	0.0474	0.004	26.1232	2.1769	1.4754
59	0.0648	-0.0014	1e-04	0.0244	0.002	0.0451
60	0.0569	-0.0642	0.0053	69.595	5.7996	2.4082