Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[49])
43	97.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
44	115.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
45	96.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
46	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
47	111.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
48	82.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	100.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
50	116	114.449	103.4939	125.404	0.3907	0.9927	0.4536	0.9927
51	116.3	102.8299	91.8749	113.785	0.008	0.0092	0.8822	0.6418
52	116.6	109.4795	98.5245	120.4346	0.1013	0.1112	0.326	0.9398
53	112.9	109.3039	98.3488	120.2589	0.26	0.0959	0.3276	0.9359
54	100.9	91.8813	80.9263	102.8364	0.0533	1e-04	0.9534	0.0553
55	104.1	98.1533	87.1991	109.1075	0.1437	0.3116	0.3179	0.3179
56	117.4	114.3887	103.14	125.6375	0.2999	0.9635	0.3895	0.9911
57	103.3	98.6562	87.4074	109.9049	0.2092	5e-04	0.0011	0.3544
58	111.6	110.8995	99.6508	122.1483	0.4514	0.9073	0.1603	0.9608
59	115	110.9757	99.727	122.2245	0.2416	0.4567	0.3687	0.9619
60	92.6	85.4864	74.2376	96.7351	0.1076	0	0.0036	0.0038
61	105.2	99.6217	88.3738	110.8696	0.1655	0.8894	0.2176	0.4187

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
50	0.0488	0.0136	0.0011	2.4056	0.2005	0.4477
51	0.0544	0.131	0.0109	181.4434	15.1203	3.8885
52	0.0511	0.065	0.0054	50.7015	4.2251	2.0555
53	0.0511	0.0329	0.0027	12.9321	1.0777	1.0381
54	0.0608	0.0982	0.0082	81.3368	6.7781	2.6035
55	0.0569	0.0606	0.005	35.3633	2.9469	1.7167
56	0.0502	0.0263	0.0022	9.0677	0.7556	0.8693
57	0.0582	0.0471	0.0039	21.565	1.7971	1.3406
58	0.0518	0.0063	5e-04	0.4907	0.0409	0.2022
59	0.0517	0.0363	0.003	16.1946	1.3496	1.1617
60	0.0671	0.0832	0.0069	50.6038	4.217	2.0535
61	0.0576	0.056	0.0047	31.1177	2.5931	1.6103