Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[48])
36	102.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	89	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	93.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	116.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
40	106.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	98.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
42	118.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
43	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
44	91.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
45	113.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
46	113.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
47	104.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
48	108.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	96.7	94.5454	84.3994	104.6914	0.3386	0.0031	0.858	0.0031
50	101	99.9008	89.2962	110.5054	0.4195	0.7229	0.8703	0.0519
51	116.9	117.5819	105.6706	129.4932	0.4553	0.9968	0.5577	0.9281
52	105.8	106.233	90.9727	121.4933	0.4778	0.0853	0.471	0.3757
53	99	104.1078	87.6913	120.5243	0.271	0.4199	0.7484	0.2918
54	129.4	117.4655	99.0576	135.8733	0.1019	0.9754	0.4477	0.8247
55	83	89.9542	69.0764	110.8321	0.2569	1e-04	0.4983	0.0392
56	88.9	88.6508	66.1565	111.1451	0.4913	0.6888	0.3885	0.0403
57	115.9	113.0562	88.4331	137.6793	0.4105	0.9727	0.4923	0.6356
58	104.2	114.4115	87.6324	141.1906	0.2274	0.4566	0.5382	0.662
59	113.4	106.0904	77.4853	134.6955	0.3082	0.5515	0.5542	0.429
60	112.2	107.9465	77.2624	138.6306	0.3929	0.3638	0.4808	0.4808

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
49	0.0548	0.0228	0.0019	4.6424	0.3869	0.622
50	0.0542	0.011	9e-04	1.2083	0.1007	0.3173
51	0.0517	-0.0058	5e-04	0.465	0.0387	0.1968
52	0.0733	-0.0041	3e-04	0.1875	0.0156	0.125
53	0.0805	-0.0491	0.0041	26.0895	2.1741	1.4745
54	0.08	0.1016	0.0085	142.4329	11.8694	3.4452
55	0.1184	-0.0773	0.0064	48.3612	4.0301	2.0075
56	0.1295	0.0028	2e-04	0.0621	0.0052	0.0719
57	0.1111	0.0252	0.0021	8.0871	0.6739	0.8209
58	0.1194	-0.0893	0.0074	104.274	8.6895	2.9478
59	0.1376	0.0689	0.0057	53.4302	4.4525	2.1101
60	0.145	0.0394	0.0033	18.0921	1.5077	1.2279