Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[93])
81	100.51	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
82	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
83	100.88	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
84	100.55	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
85	100.83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
86	101.51	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
87	102.16	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
88	102.39	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
89	102.54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
90	102.85	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
91	103.47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
92	103.57	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
93	103.69	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
94	103.5	103.6862	103.1736	104.2013	0.2394	0.4942	1	0.4942
95	103.47	103.744	103.0194	104.4736	0.2309	0.7439	1	0.5576
96	103.45	103.654	102.7681	104.5476	0.3272	0.6568	1	0.4686
97	103.48	103.9087	102.8838	104.9437	0.2085	0.8075	1	0.6606
98	103.93	104.283	103.1342	105.4446	0.2757	0.9123	1	0.8415
99	103.89	104.5247	103.2644	105.8004	0.1647	0.8196	0.9999	0.9002
100	104.4	104.7675	103.404	106.149	0.301	0.8934	0.9996	0.9368
101	104.79	104.9599	103.5005	106.44	0.411	0.7708	0.9993	0.9537
102	104.77	105.0368	103.4885	106.6082	0.3697	0.6209	0.9968	0.9535
103	105.13	105.2899	103.6547	106.9508	0.4252	0.7302	0.9841	0.9705
104	105.26	105.3176	103.603	107.0606	0.4742	0.5835	0.9753	0.9664
105	104.96	105.5081	103.7147	107.3325	0.278	0.6051	0.9746	0.9746

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
94	0.0025	-0.0018	1e-04	0.0347	0.0029	0.0537
95	0.0036	-0.0026	2e-04	0.0751	0.0063	0.0791
96	0.0044	-0.002	2e-04	0.0416	0.0035	0.0589
97	0.0051	-0.0041	3e-04	0.1837	0.0153	0.1237
98	0.0057	-0.0034	3e-04	0.1246	0.0104	0.1019
99	0.0062	-0.0061	5e-04	0.4028	0.0336	0.1832
100	0.0067	-0.0035	3e-04	0.1351	0.0113	0.1061
101	0.0072	-0.0016	1e-04	0.0289	0.0024	0.0491
102	0.0076	-0.0025	2e-04	0.0712	0.0059	0.077
103	0.008	-0.0015	1e-04	0.0256	0.0021	0.0462
104	0.0084	-5e-04	0	0.0033	3e-04	0.0166
105	0.0088	-0.0052	4e-04	0.3004	0.025	0.1582