Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[69])
57	104.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
58	96	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
59	103.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
60	82.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
61	91.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
62	94.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
63	109.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
64	92.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
65	99.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
66	109.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
67	87.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
68	73.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
69	110.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
70	111.6	106.3783	97.4364	115.3203	0.1262	0.1717	0.9885	0.1717
71	110.7	105.67	96.7186	114.6213	0.1354	0.0971	0.6981	0.1354
72	84	85.0128	75.7966	94.229	0.4147	0	0.6734	0
73	101.6	95.0789	84.754	105.4039	0.1079	0.9823	0.7575	0.0015
74	102.1	96.9503	86.6249	107.2757	0.1642	0.1887	0.6791	0.0045
75	113.9	106.9149	96.3318	117.498	0.0979	0.8137	0.3293	0.2417
76	99	96.4204	85.5574	107.2833	0.3208	8e-04	0.7822	0.005
77	100.4	95.0477	84.1732	105.9223	0.1674	0.2381	0.2217	0.0024
78	109.5	106.3192	95.2908	117.3475	0.2859	0.8536	0.2799	0.2181
79	93	86.7794	75.6663	97.8925	0.1363	0	0.4494	0
80	76.8	71.1178	59.9853	82.2503	0.1586	1e-04	0.3635	0
81	105.3	109.8134	98.6052	121.0217	0.215	1	0.4384	0.4384

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
70	0.0429	0.0491	0.0041	27.2658	2.2721	1.5074
71	0.0432	0.0476	0.004	25.3013	2.1084	1.452
72	0.0553	-0.0119	0.001	1.0257	0.0855	0.2924
73	0.0554	0.0686	0.0057	42.5243	3.5437	1.8825
74	0.0543	0.0531	0.0044	26.5194	2.21	1.4866
75	0.0505	0.0653	0.0054	48.7914	4.066	2.0164
76	0.0575	0.0268	0.0022	6.6545	0.5545	0.7447
77	0.0584	0.0563	0.0047	28.6466	2.3872	1.5451
78	0.0529	0.0299	0.0025	10.1176	0.8431	0.9182
79	0.0653	0.0717	0.006	38.6958	3.2246	1.7957
80	0.0799	0.0799	0.0067	32.2875	2.6906	1.6403
81	0.0521	-0.0411	0.0034	20.3709	1.6976	1.3029