Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[49])
37	8.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
40	8.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	8.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
42	8.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
43	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
44	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
45	8.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
46	8.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
47	8.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
48	8.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	8.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
50	8.2	8.2011	7.6275	8.7747	0.4985	0.6351	0.0441	0.6351
51	8.1	8.1696	7.3575	8.9817	0.4333	0.4707	0.1002	0.5667
52	8.1	8.6223	7.6333	9.6112	0.1503	0.8497	0.5176	0.8497
53	7.9	8.433	7.4285	9.4374	0.1492	0.7421	0.5256	0.7421
54	7.7	8.4426	7.4232	9.4621	0.0767	0.8516	0.5327	0.745
55	8.1	8.3114	7.2746	9.3482	0.3447	0.8761	0.2313	0.6553
56	8	8.303	7.1721	9.434	0.2997	0.6375	0.2457	0.6375
57	7.7	8.1183	6.9	9.3367	0.2505	0.5755	0.2696	0.5118
58	7.8	8.1826	6.8877	9.4774	0.2813	0.7674	0.4295	0.5497
59	7.6	8.1889	6.8681	9.5096	0.1911	0.718	0.4345	0.5525
60	7.4	8.1686	6.8226	9.5146	0.1315	0.7962	0.4241	0.5398
61	7.7	7.8825	6.5092	9.2558	0.3973	0.7545	0.3781	0.3781

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
50	0.0357	-1e-04	0	0	0	3e-04
51	0.0507	-0.0085	7e-04	0.0048	4e-04	0.0201
52	0.0585	-0.0606	0.005	0.2727	0.0227	0.1508
53	0.0608	-0.0632	0.0053	0.284	0.0237	0.1539
54	0.0616	-0.088	0.0073	0.5515	0.046	0.2144
55	0.0636	-0.0254	0.0021	0.0447	0.0037	0.061
56	0.0695	-0.0365	0.003	0.0918	0.0077	0.0875
57	0.0766	-0.0515	0.0043	0.175	0.0146	0.1208
58	0.0807	-0.0468	0.0039	0.1464	0.0122	0.1104
59	0.0823	-0.0719	0.006	0.3468	0.0289	0.17
60	0.0841	-0.0941	0.0078	0.5908	0.0492	0.2219
61	0.0889	-0.0232	0.0019	0.0333	0.0028	0.0527