Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[48])
36	127.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	117.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	119.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	116.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
40	111	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	112.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
42	130.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
43	109.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
44	118.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
45	123.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
46	101.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
47	112.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
48	128	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	129.6	120.2775	106.9638	135.2483	0.1111	0.156	0.6565	0.156
50	125.8	122.639	108.9764	138.0145	0.3435	0.1874	0.6413	0.2472
51	119.5	120.4713	107.0407	135.5871	0.4499	0.2448	0.7102	0.1645
52	115.7	112.6084	99.861	126.9831	0.3367	0.1737	0.5868	0.0179
53	113.6	113.1904	100.2155	127.8451	0.4782	0.3686	0.5421	0.0238
54	129.7	130.8958	115.7719	147.9953	0.4455	0.9763	0.5135	0.63
55	112	111.1694	98.2299	125.8132	0.4557	0.0066	0.6091	0.0121
56	116.8	119.1416	105.179	134.9578	0.3858	0.8119	0.5169	0.1362
57	127	124.988	110.253	141.6923	0.4067	0.8317	0.5508	0.3619
58	112.9	102.2448	90.1282	115.9904	0.0643	2e-04	0.5366	1e-04
59	113.3	113.3396	99.846	128.6567	0.498	0.5224	0.5275	0.0303
60	121.7	129.3926	113.9248	146.9606	0.1954	0.9637	0.5617	0.5617

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
49	0.0635	0.0775	0.0065	86.9099	7.2425	2.6912
50	0.064	0.0258	0.0021	9.992	0.8327	0.9125
51	0.064	-0.0081	7e-04	0.9434	0.0786	0.2804
52	0.0651	0.0275	0.0023	9.5577	0.7965	0.8925
53	0.0661	0.0036	3e-04	0.1678	0.014	0.1182
54	0.0667	-0.0091	8e-04	1.4298	0.1192	0.3452
55	0.0672	0.0075	6e-04	0.69	0.0575	0.2398
56	0.0677	-0.0197	0.0016	5.4832	0.4569	0.676
57	0.0682	0.0161	0.0013	4.048	0.3373	0.5808
58	0.0686	0.1042	0.0087	113.5328	9.4611	3.0759
59	0.069	-3e-04	0	0.0016	1e-04	0.0114
60	0.0693	-0.0595	0.005	59.1766	4.9314	2.2207