Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[24])
12	99	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	105.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	107.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	110.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	117.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	118.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	126.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	127.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	134.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	131.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	135.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	142.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	141.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	153.4	141.1261	134.4193	147.93	2e-04	0.4343	1	0.4343
26	145	134.8476	128.1969	141.5981	0.0016	0	1	0.0233
27	137.7	141.4653	134.6835	148.3461	0.1417	0.157	1	0.4733
28	148.3	150.1703	143.2628	157.1746	0.3004	0.9998	1	0.9911
29	152.2	156.8302	149.8349	163.9204	0.1003	0.9908	1	1
30	169.4	150.058	143.135	157.0782	0	0.2749	1	0.9902
31	168.6	138.1141	131.3311	144.9986	0	0	0.9987	0.1537
32	161.1	140.0247	133.1975	146.9533	0	0	0.9376	0.3178
33	174.1	143.9352	137.0511	150.9195	0	0	0.9997	0.7348
34	179	145.9426	139.0201	152.965	0	0	0.9975	0.8818
35	190.6	149.1769	142.1805	156.2731	0	0	0.9632	0.9805
36	190	143.6052	136.6656	150.6468	0	0	0.702	0.702
37	181.6	150.7371	143.6832	157.8914	0	0	0.2328	0.9934
38	174.8	152.6205	145.5396	159.8013	0	0	0.9812	0.9986
39	180.5	156.6185	149.4711	163.8651	0	0	1	1
40	196.8	163.7058	156.4424	171.0672	0	0	1	1
41	193.8	165.4792	158.1792	172.877	0	0	0.9998	1
42	197	174.063	166.6456	181.5764	0	0	0.8881	1
43	216.3	175.15	167.7119	182.6841	0	0	0.9558	1
44	221.4	182.9376	175.3854	190.5844	0	0	1	1
45	217.9	179.8739	172.3455	187.498	0	0	0.9311	1
46	229.7	184.3676	176.7739	192.0563	0	0	0.9144	1
47	227.4	191.8017	184.1096	199.5874	0	0	0.6189	1
48	204.2	190.7042	183.0143	198.4881	3e-04	0	0.5704	1
49	196.6	190.0841	175.3101	205.2109	0.1993	0.0337	0.8642	1
50	198.8	183.2212	168.5636	198.2394	0.021	0.0404	0.8641	1
51	207.5	190.4607	175.5832	205.6954	0.0142	0.1417	0.9	1
52	190.7	199.9556	184.8424	215.4196	0.1204	0.1695	0.6554	1
53	201.6	207.196	191.9077	222.8306	0.2415	0.9807	0.9535	1
54	210.5	199.8426	184.6881	215.3501	0.089	0.4121	0.6403	1
55	223.5	186.8153	171.9276	202.0679	0	0.0012	1e-04	1
56	223.8	188.9102	173.9453	204.2396	0	0	0	1
57	231.2	193.1763	178.0976	208.6168	0	1e-04	8e-04	1
58	244	195.3692	180.2156	210.884	0	0	0	1
59	234.7	198.8992	183.6212	214.5377	0	0	2e-04	1
60	250.2	192.826	177.6583	208.3606	0	0	0.0756	1

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
25	0.0246	0.087	0.0024	150.6483	4.1847	2.0456
26	0.0255	0.0753	0.0021	103.0722	2.8631	1.6921
27	0.0248	-0.0266	7e-04	14.1776	0.3938	0.6276
28	0.0238	-0.0125	3e-04	3.4981	0.0972	0.3117
29	0.0231	-0.0295	8e-04	21.439	0.5955	0.7717
30	0.0239	0.1289	0.0036	374.1123	10.392	3.2237
31	0.0254	0.2207	0.0061	929.3891	25.8164	5.081
32	0.0252	0.1505	0.0042	444.1686	12.338	3.5126
33	0.0248	0.2096	0.0058	909.9167	25.2755	5.0275
34	0.0245	0.2265	0.0063	1092.7942	30.3554	5.5096
35	0.0243	0.2777	0.0077	1715.8764	47.6632	6.9039
36	0.025	0.3231	0.009	2152.4798	59.7911	7.7325
37	0.0242	0.2047	0.0057	952.5213	26.4589	5.1438
38	0.024	0.1453	0.004	491.9315	13.6648	3.6966
39	0.0236	0.1525	0.0042	570.3263	15.8424	3.9803
40	0.0229	0.2022	0.0056	1095.2248	30.4229	5.5157
41	0.0228	0.1711	0.0048	802.0693	22.2797	4.7201
42	0.022	0.1318	0.0037	526.1065	14.6141	3.8228
43	0.0219	0.2349	0.0065	1693.3261	47.0368	6.8583
44	0.0213	0.2102	0.0058	1479.3589	41.0933	6.4104
45	0.0216	0.2114	0.0059	1445.9862	40.1663	6.3377
46	0.0213	0.2459	0.0068	2055.0308	57.0842	7.5554
47	0.0207	0.1856	0.0052	1267.2422	35.2012	5.9331
48	0.0208	0.0708	0.002	182.1379	5.0594	2.2493
49	0.0406	0.0343	0.001	42.4576	1.1794	1.086
50	0.0418	0.085	0.0024	242.7004	6.7417	2.5965
51	0.0408	0.0895	0.0025	290.3386	8.065	2.8399
52	0.0395	-0.0463	0.0013	85.6653	2.3796	1.5426
53	0.0385	-0.027	8e-04	31.3152	0.8699	0.9327
54	0.0396	0.0533	0.0015	113.5806	3.155	1.7762
55	0.0417	0.1964	0.0055	1345.7648	37.3824	6.1141
56	0.0414	0.1847	0.0051	1217.2974	33.8138	5.815
57	0.0408	0.1968	0.0055	1445.801	40.1611	6.3373
58	0.0405	0.2489	0.0069	2364.959	65.6933	8.1051
59	0.0401	0.18	0.005	1281.6986	35.6027	5.9668
60	0.0411	0.2975	0.0083	3291.773	91.4381	9.5623