Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[81])
69	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
70	8.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
71	8.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
72	8.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
73	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
74	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
75	8.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
76	8.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
77	8.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
78	8.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
79	8.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
80	8.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
81	8.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
82	8.1	8.1538	7.6117	8.7346	0.4279	0.5721	0.0661	0.5721
83	7.9	8.0423	7.2868	8.876	0.369	0.446	0.2002	0.446
84	7.7	8.066	7.1396	9.1125	0.2465	0.622	0.2658	0.4746
85	8.1	8.0298	7.0551	9.1391	0.4506	0.7199	0.1182	0.4506
86	8	8.0362	7.0151	9.206	0.4758	0.4575	0.133	0.4575
87	7.7	7.9078	6.8623	9.1127	0.3676	0.4404	0.1677	0.3773
88	7.8	8.075	6.942	9.3928	0.3413	0.7115	0.3689	0.4852
89	7.6	8.0956	6.8965	9.5032	0.245	0.6597	0.388	0.4976
90	7.4	8.0713	6.8154	9.5586	0.1882	0.7327	0.3816	0.4849
91	7.7	7.7736	6.5185	9.2703	0.4616	0.6877	0.3345	0.3345
92	7.9	7.8338	6.526	9.4037	0.4671	0.5663	0.3238	0.3698
93	7.6	7.8257	6.4786	9.4529	0.3929	0.4643	0.3705	0.3705

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
82	0.0363	-0.0066	5e-04	0.0029	2e-04	0.0155
83	0.0529	-0.0177	0.0015	0.0202	0.0017	0.0411
84	0.0662	-0.0454	0.0038	0.1339	0.0112	0.1056
85	0.0705	0.0087	7e-04	0.0049	4e-04	0.0203
86	0.0743	-0.0045	4e-04	0.0013	1e-04	0.0105
87	0.0777	-0.0263	0.0022	0.0432	0.0036	0.06
88	0.0833	-0.0341	0.0028	0.0756	0.0063	0.0794
89	0.0887	-0.0612	0.0051	0.2457	0.0205	0.1431
90	0.094	-0.0832	0.0069	0.4506	0.0376	0.1938
91	0.0982	-0.0095	8e-04	0.0054	5e-04	0.0212
92	0.1022	0.0085	7e-04	0.0044	4e-04	0.0191
93	0.1061	-0.0288	0.0024	0.0509	0.0042	0.0651