Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[48])
36	91.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	107.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	101.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	104.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
40	93.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	100.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
42	98.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
43	112.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
44	101.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
45	107.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
46	110.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
47	90.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
48	95.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	111.4	110.8299	100.8708	119.965	0.4513	0.9995	0.7352	0.9995
50	113	107.1003	96.5576	116.6944	0.1141	0.1899	0.8606	0.9911
51	107.5	104.5171	93.1737	114.7445	0.2838	0.052	0.509	0.958
52	95.9	94.3756	81.5603	105.6477	0.3955	0.0112	0.5674	0.4225
53	106.3	99.0921	86.9132	109.93	0.0962	0.7181	0.4277	0.742
54	105.2	98.1738	85.8504	109.1142	0.1041	0.0727	0.4767	0.684
55	117.2	110.9244	100.175	120.7205	0.1046	0.874	0.3463	0.999
56	106.9	102.629	90.9016	113.1474	0.2131	0.0033	0.5906	0.908
57	108.2	104.2517	92.7287	114.6222	0.2278	0.3084	0.2952	0.9509
58	110	111.2173	100.4958	120.9925	0.4036	0.7274	0.5333	0.9992
59	96.1	91.0821	77.6276	102.7904	0.2005	8e-04	0.5521	0.2298
60	100.6	94.2906	81.3682	105.6439	0.138	0.3774	0.4173	0.4173

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
49	0.0421	0.0051	4e-04	0.325	0.0271	0.1646
50	0.0457	0.0551	0.0046	34.8064	2.9005	1.7031
51	0.0499	0.0285	0.0024	8.8978	0.7415	0.8611
52	0.0609	0.0162	0.0013	2.3238	0.1936	0.4401
53	0.0558	0.0727	0.0061	51.9533	4.3294	2.0807
54	0.0569	0.0716	0.006	49.3675	4.114	2.0283
55	0.0451	0.0566	0.0047	39.3826	3.2819	1.8116
56	0.0523	0.0416	0.0035	18.2412	1.5201	1.2329
57	0.0508	0.0379	0.0032	15.5889	1.2991	1.1398
58	0.0448	-0.0109	9e-04	1.4818	0.1235	0.3514
59	0.0656	0.0551	0.0046	25.179	2.0982	1.4485
60	0.0614	0.0669	0.0056	39.809	3.3174	1.8214