Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[36])
35	97.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
36	107.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	127.3	119.4982	106.8018	133.7039	0.1409	0.9482	0.9482	0.9482
38	117.2	102.6266	90.4134	116.4895	0.0197	2e-04	2e-04	0.2366
39	119.8	113.9339	100.382	129.3153	0.2274	0.3386	0.3386	0.7865
40	116.2	117.9352	102.8648	135.2135	0.422	0.4162	0.4162	0.8772
41	111	102.8787	89.7326	117.9508	0.1455	0.0416	0.0416	0.2653
42	112.4	114.5571	99.8179	131.4728	0.4013	0.6599	0.6599	0.7866
43	130.6	115.0488	99.5668	132.9381	0.0442	0.6142	0.6142	0.7896
44	109.1	104.1591	90.1439	120.3532	0.2749	7e-04	7e-04	0.3341
45	118.8	115.8396	100.2563	133.845	0.3736	0.7684	0.7684	0.8122
46	123.9	113.3072	97.6105	131.5281	0.1273	0.2773	0.2773	0.7268
47	101.6	105.5445	90.886	122.5672	0.3249	0.0173	0.0173	0.402
48	112.8	116.1436	100.0224	134.8631	0.3631	0.9361	0.9361	0.8117

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
37	0.0607	0.0653	0.0054	60.8678	5.0723	2.2522
38	0.0689	0.142	0.0118	212.3841	17.6987	4.207
39	0.0689	0.0515	0.0043	34.4109	2.8676	1.6934
40	0.0747	-0.0147	0.0012	3.011	0.2509	0.5009
41	0.0747	0.0789	0.0066	65.9549	5.4962	2.3444
42	0.0753	-0.0188	0.0016	4.6532	0.3878	0.6227
43	0.0793	0.1352	0.0113	241.8407	20.1534	4.4893
44	0.0793	0.0474	0.004	24.4129	2.0344	1.4263
45	0.0793	0.0256	0.0021	8.764	0.7303	0.8546
46	0.082	0.0935	0.0078	112.2073	9.3506	3.0579
47	0.0823	-0.0374	0.0031	15.5593	1.2966	1.1387
48	0.0822	-0.0288	0.0024	11.1794	0.9316	0.9652