Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[48])
36	115.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	132.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	123.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	124.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
40	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	117.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
42	117.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
43	137.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
44	114.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
45	124.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
46	129.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
47	109.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
48	120.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	134.9	139.2523	128.6013	149.9032	0.2116	0.9996	0.8825	0.9996
50	136.3	131.6241	120.746	142.5021	0.1998	0.2775	0.9332	0.9733
51	133.2	127.8194	116.7831	138.8558	0.1696	0.066	0.7041	0.8904
52	127.2	131.0852	117.9894	144.1809	0.2805	0.3758	0.913	0.9363
53	122.7	115.7813	102.3392	129.2234	0.1565	0.048	0.4067	0.2277
54	120.5	120.7126	107.0074	134.4177	0.4879	0.3881	0.6562	0.4893
55	137.8	139.3622	124.7137	154.0106	0.4172	0.9942	0.6035	0.9932
56	119.1	118.3916	103.3892	133.3939	0.4631	0.0056	0.6898	0.3716
57	124.3	121.0884	105.7982	136.3785	0.3403	0.6006	0.3217	0.5096
58	134.3	137.8783	122.0392	153.7173	0.329	0.9535	0.8472	0.9822
59	121.7	120.5423	104.3861	136.6984	0.4442	0.0476	0.9118	0.4827
60	125	125.3056	108.8784	141.7329	0.4855	0.6665	0.7004	0.7004

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
49	0.039	-0.0313	0.0026	18.9422	1.5785	1.2564
50	0.0422	0.0355	0.003	21.8643	1.822	1.3498
51	0.0441	0.0421	0.0035	28.9506	2.4126	1.5532
52	0.051	-0.0296	0.0025	15.0945	1.2579	1.1215
53	0.0592	0.0598	0.005	47.8686	3.989	1.9973
54	0.0579	-0.0018	1e-04	0.0452	0.0038	0.0614
55	0.0536	-0.0112	9e-04	2.4404	0.2034	0.451
56	0.0647	0.006	5e-04	0.5019	0.0418	0.2045
57	0.0644	0.0265	0.0022	10.3145	0.8595	0.9271
58	0.0586	-0.026	0.0022	12.8041	1.067	1.033
59	0.0684	0.0096	8e-04	1.3404	0.1117	0.3342
60	0.0669	-0.0024	2e-04	0.0934	0.0078	0.0882