Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[81])
69	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
70	8.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
71	8.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
72	8.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
73	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
74	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
75	8.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
76	8.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
77	8.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
78	8.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
79	8.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
80	8.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
81	8.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
82	8.1	8.1522	7.6103	8.7328	0.43	0.57	0.0653	0.57
83	7.9	8.0576	7.3046	8.8882	0.355	0.4602	0.2096	0.4602
84	7.7	8.0809	7.159	9.1214	0.2366	0.6333	0.2739	0.4856
85	8.1	8.0451	7.076	9.1469	0.4611	0.7303	0.122	0.4611
86	8	8.0379	7.0277	9.1934	0.4743	0.4581	0.1307	0.4581
87	7.7	7.9091	6.8778	9.095	0.3649	0.4403	0.1644	0.3762
88	7.8	8.0757	6.9614	9.3683	0.338	0.7155	0.3669	0.4853
89	7.6	8.1049	6.9245	9.4867	0.2369	0.6673	0.391	0.5028
90	7.4	8.0819	6.8449	9.5424	0.1801	0.7411	0.3849	0.4903
91	7.7	7.7852	6.5484	9.2555	0.4548	0.6962	0.3374	0.3374
92	7.9	7.8404	6.5535	9.38	0.4698	0.5709	0.3235	0.3705
93	7.6	7.8313	6.507	9.4251	0.388	0.4663	0.3705	0.3705

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
82	0.0363	-0.0064	5e-04	0.0027	2e-04	0.0151
83	0.0526	-0.0196	0.0016	0.0248	0.0021	0.0455
84	0.0657	-0.0471	0.0039	0.145	0.0121	0.1099
85	0.0699	0.0068	6e-04	0.003	3e-04	0.0159
86	0.0733	-0.0047	4e-04	0.0014	1e-04	0.0109
87	0.0765	-0.0264	0.0022	0.0437	0.0036	0.0604
88	0.0817	-0.0341	0.0028	0.076	0.0063	0.0796
89	0.087	-0.0623	0.0052	0.255	0.0212	0.1458
90	0.0922	-0.0844	0.007	0.4649	0.0387	0.1968
91	0.0964	-0.0109	9e-04	0.0073	6e-04	0.0246
92	0.1002	0.0076	6e-04	0.0036	3e-04	0.0172
93	0.1038	-0.0295	0.0025	0.0535	0.0045	0.0668