Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[25])
13	565	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	547	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	555	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	562	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	561	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	555	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	544	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	537	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	543	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	594	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	611	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	613	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	611	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	594	593	580.5266	605.4734	0.4376	0.0023	1	0.0023
27	595	601	583.36	618.64	0.2525	0.7816	1	0.1333
28	591	608	586.3955	629.6045	0.0615	0.8809	1	0.3927
29	589	607	582.0533	631.9467	0.0786	0.8956	0.9998	0.3767
30	584	601	573.1087	628.8913	0.1161	0.8005	0.9994	0.2411
31	573	590	559.4466	620.5534	0.1377	0.6498	0.9984	0.089
32	567	583	549.9986	616.0014	0.171	0.7237	0.9969	0.0482
33	569	589	553.72	624.28	0.1333	0.8892	0.9947	0.1108
34	621	640	602.5799	677.4201	0.1598	0.9999	0.992	0.9356
35	629	657	617.5558	696.4442	0.0821	0.9632	0.9889	0.9889
36	628	659	617.6305	700.3695	0.071	0.9224	0.9853	0.9885
37	612	657	613.791	700.209	0.0206	0.9058	0.9815	0.9815
38	595	639	589.1065	688.8935	0.042	0.8556	0.9615	0.8643
39	597	647	591.2174	702.7826	0.0395	0.9662	0.9662	0.897
40	593	654	592.8932	715.1068	0.0252	0.9662	0.9783	0.9161
41	590	653	586.9972	719.0028	0.0307	0.9626	0.9713	0.8938
42	580	647	576.44	717.56	0.0314	0.9433	0.9599	0.8413
43	574	636	561.1598	710.8402	0.0522	0.9288	0.9505	0.7437
44	573	629	550.1115	707.8885	0.0821	0.9141	0.9383	0.6726
45	573	635	552.2611	717.7389	0.071	0.929	0.941	0.7152
46	620	686	599.582	772.418	0.0672	0.9948	0.9298	0.9555
47	626	703	613.0533	792.9467	0.0467	0.9647	0.9466	0.9775
48	620	705	611.6579	798.3421	0.0371	0.9514	0.947	0.9758
49	588	703	606.3817	799.6183	0.0098	0.9539	0.9676	0.969
50	566	685	581.3885	788.6115	0.0122	0.9667	0.9557	0.9192
51	557	693	582.8382	803.1618	0.0078	0.9881	0.9562	0.9277
52	561	700	583.6562	816.3438	0.0096	0.992	0.9643	0.9331
53	549	699	576.7865	821.2135	0.0081	0.9866	0.9598	0.9209
54	532	693	565.1861	820.8139	0.0068	0.9864	0.9584	0.8957
55	526	682	548.8209	815.1791	0.0108	0.9864	0.944	0.852
56	511	675	536.6637	813.3363	0.0101	0.9826	0.9258	0.8177
57	499	681	537.692	824.308	0.0064	0.99	0.9302	0.8308
58	555	732	583.887	880.113	0.0096	0.999	0.9308	0.9453
59	565	749	596.2331	901.7669	0.0091	0.9936	0.9427	0.9617
60	542	751	593.7169	908.2831	0.0046	0.9898	0.9487	0.9595
61	527	749	587.3267	910.6733	0.0036	0.994	0.9745	0.9528

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
26	0.0107	0.0017	0	1	0.0278	0.1667
27	0.015	-0.01	3e-04	36	1	1
28	0.0181	-0.028	8e-04	289	8.0278	2.8333
29	0.021	-0.0297	8e-04	324	9	3
30	0.0237	-0.0283	8e-04	289	8.0278	2.8333
31	0.0264	-0.0288	8e-04	289	8.0278	2.8333
32	0.0289	-0.0274	8e-04	256	7.1111	2.6667
33	0.0306	-0.034	9e-04	400	11.1111	3.3333
34	0.0298	-0.0297	8e-04	361	10.0278	3.1667
35	0.0306	-0.0426	0.0012	784	21.7778	4.6667
36	0.032	-0.047	0.0013	961	26.6944	5.1667
37	0.0336	-0.0685	0.0019	2025	56.25	7.5
38	0.0398	-0.0689	0.0019	1936	53.7778	7.3333
39	0.044	-0.0773	0.0021	2500	69.4444	8.3333
40	0.0477	-0.0933	0.0026	3721	103.3611	10.1667
41	0.0516	-0.0965	0.0027	3969	110.25	10.5
42	0.0556	-0.1036	0.0029	4489	124.6944	11.1667
43	0.06	-0.0975	0.0027	3844	106.7778	10.3333
44	0.064	-0.089	0.0025	3136	87.1111	9.3333
45	0.0665	-0.0976	0.0027	3844	106.7778	10.3333
46	0.0643	-0.0962	0.0027	4356	121	11
47	0.0653	-0.1095	0.003	5929	164.6944	12.8333
48	0.0676	-0.1206	0.0033	7225	200.6944	14.1667
49	0.0701	-0.1636	0.0045	13225	367.3611	19.1667
50	0.0772	-0.1737	0.0048	14161	393.3611	19.8333
51	0.0811	-0.1962	0.0055	18496	513.7778	22.6667
52	0.0848	-0.1986	0.0055	19321	536.6944	23.1667
53	0.0892	-0.2146	0.006	22500	625	25
54	0.0941	-0.2323	0.0065	25921	720.0278	26.8333
55	0.0996	-0.2287	0.0064	24336	676	26
56	0.1046	-0.243	0.0067	26896	747.1111	27.3333
57	0.1074	-0.2673	0.0074	33124	920.1111	30.3333
58	0.1032	-0.2418	0.0067	31329	870.25	29.5
59	0.1041	-0.2457	0.0068	33856	940.4444	30.6667
60	0.1069	-0.2783	0.0077	43681	1213.3611	34.8333
61	0.1101	-0.2964	0.0082	49284	1369	37