Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[49])
37	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	8.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	8.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
40	8.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
42	8.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
43	8.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
44	8.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
45	8.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
46	8.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
47	8.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
48	8.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	8.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
50	8.1	8.7245	8.2363	9.2418	0.009	0.991	0.6815	0.991
51	7.9	8.5629	7.8886	9.2948	0.0379	0.8924	0.6687	0.8924
52	7.7	8.6795	7.8473	9.5998	0.0185	0.9515	0.7241	0.8914
53	8.1	8.3902	7.5776	9.2899	0.2636	0.9337	0.2499	0.7364
54	8	8.3289	7.5158	9.2299	0.2372	0.6907	0.2097	0.6907
55	7.7	8.137	7.3369	9.0244	0.1672	0.6189	0.2114	0.5326
56	7.8	8.0574	7.1974	9.0201	0.3001	0.7666	0.3107	0.4654
57	7.6	8.045	7.1208	9.0891	0.2018	0.6772	0.3161	0.4589
58	7.4	8.1155	7.1211	9.2486	0.108	0.8137	0.3748	0.5107
59	7.7	8.2664	7.2357	9.4439	0.1729	0.9254	0.6091	0.6091
60	7.9	8.3781	7.3175	9.5924	0.2202	0.8631	0.6131	0.6732
61	7.6	8.2981	7.2326	9.5206	0.1315	0.7384	0.6246	0.6246

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
50	0.0302	-0.0716	0.006	0.39	0.0325	0.1803
51	0.0436	-0.0774	0.0065	0.4395	0.0366	0.1914
52	0.0541	-0.1128	0.0094	0.9594	0.0799	0.2828
53	0.0547	-0.0346	0.0029	0.0842	0.007	0.0838
54	0.0552	-0.0395	0.0033	0.1081	0.009	0.0949
55	0.0556	-0.0537	0.0045	0.191	0.0159	0.1262
56	0.061	-0.0319	0.0027	0.0662	0.0055	0.0743
57	0.0662	-0.0553	0.0046	0.198	0.0165	0.1285
58	0.0712	-0.0882	0.0073	0.5119	0.0427	0.2065
59	0.0727	-0.0685	0.0057	0.3208	0.0267	0.1635
60	0.074	-0.0571	0.0048	0.2286	0.019	0.138
61	0.0752	-0.0841	0.007	0.4874	0.0406	0.2015