| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.92520928828322 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 88.9 | 97.7 | -8.8 |
| 3 | 96.5 | 89.5581582631077 | 6.94184173689234 |
| 4 | 89.5 | 95.9808147158726 | -6.48081471587258 |
| 5 | 85.4 | 89.9847047451047 | -4.58470474510469 |
| 6 | 84.3 | 85.7428933308977 | -1.44289333089769 |
| 7 | 83.7 | 84.4079150191492 | -0.70791501914924 |
| 8 | 86.2 | 83.7529454681172 | 2.44705453188283 |
| 9 | 90.7 | 86.0169830499507 | 4.68301695004929 |
| 10 | 95.7 | 90.3497538293241 | 5.35024617067593 |
| 11 | 95.6 | 95.2998512810352 | 0.30014871896482 |
| 12 | 97 | 95.5775516636877 | 1.42244833631226 |
| 13 | 97.2 | 96.8936140765469 | 0.306385923453149 |
| 14 | 86.6 | 97.1770851787249 | -10.5770851787249 |
| 15 | 88.4 | 87.3910677284058 | 1.00893227159416 |
| 16 | 81.4 | 88.3245412373334 | -6.92454123733344 |
| 17 | 86.9 | 81.9178913674524 | 4.98210863254764 |
| 18 | 84.9 | 86.5273845495214 | -1.62738454952144 |
| 19 | 83.7 | 85.0217132486956 | -1.3217132486956 |
| 20 | 86.8 | 83.7988518745555 | 3.00114812544454 |
| 21 | 88.3 | 86.5755419957305 | 1.72445800426948 |
| 22 | 92.5 | 88.171026558535 | 4.32897344146501 |
| 23 | 94.7 | 92.1762329953098 | 2.52376700469021 |
| 24 | 94.5 | 94.5112456695119 | -0.0112456695118937 |
| 25 | 98.7 | 94.5008410716265 | 4.19915892837348 |
| 26 | 88.6 | 98.3859419151351 | -9.78594191513508 |
| 27 | 95.2 | 89.331897560652 | 5.86810243934798 |
| 28 | 91.3 | 94.7611204421342 | -3.46112044213419 |
| 29 | 91.7 | 91.5588596612047 | 0.141140338795296 |
| 30 | 89.3 | 91.6894440136096 | -2.38944401360956 |
| 31 | 88.7 | 89.4787082183853 | -0.778708218385248 |
| 32 | 91.2 | 88.7582401418727 | 2.44175985812727 |
| 33 | 88.6 | 91.0173790423692 | -2.41737904236921 |
| 34 | 94.6 | 88.780797499068 | 5.81920250093197 |
| 35 | 96 | 94.1647777033312 | 1.83522229666877 |
| 36 | 94.3 | 95.8627424182736 | -1.56274241827363 |
| 37 | 102 | 94.4168786176927 | 7.58312138230733 |
| 38 | 93.4 | 101.432852954782 | -8.03285295478248 |
| 39 | 96.7 | 94.0007827896044 | 2.69921721039557 |
| 40 | 93.7 | 96.4981236237563 | -2.79812362375634 |
| 41 | 91.6 | 93.9092736572923 | -2.30927365729229 |
| 42 | 89.6 | 91.7727122203777 | -2.1727122203777 |
| 43 | 92.9 | 89.7624986933178 | 3.13750130668222 |
| 44 | 94.1 | 92.6653440442609 | 1.43465595573909 |
| 45 | 92 | 93.9927010600016 | -1.99270106000155 |
| 46 | 97.5 | 92.1490355305163 | 5.3509644694837 |
| 47 | 92.7 | 97.0997975589561 | -4.39979755895611 |
| 48 | 100.7 | 93.0290639908441 | 7.67093600915592 |
| 49 | 105.9 | 100.126285236341 | 5.77371476365865 |
| 50 | 95.3 | 105.468179763576 | -10.1681797635763 |
| 51 | 99.8 | 96.060485401382 | 3.73951459861797 |
| 52 | 91.3 | 99.5203190416941 | -8.22031904169407 |
| 53 | 90.8 | 91.9148035116673 | -1.1148035116673 |
| 54 | 87.1 | 90.883376948062 | -3.78337694806197 |
| 55 | 91.4 | 87.3829614546384 | 4.0170385453616 |
| 56 | 86.1 | 91.0995628281987 | -4.99956282819868 |
| 57 | 87.1 | 86.4739208621937 | 0.626079137806272 |
| 58 | 92.6 | 87.0531750956924 | 5.54682490430756 |
| 59 | 96.6 | 92.1851490176385 | 4.41485098236153 |
| 60 | 105.3 | 96.2698101529056 | 9.03018984709435 |
| 61 | 102.4 | 104.624625674398 | -2.22462567439817 |
| 62 | 98.2 | 102.566381337492 | -4.36638133749166 |
| 63 | 98.6 | 98.5265647678579 | 0.073435232142117 |
| 64 | 92.6 | 98.594507726723 | -5.994507726723 |
| 65 | 87.9 | 93.0483334992733 | -5.14833349927333 |
| 66 | 84.1 | 88.285047526566 | -4.18504752656601 |
| 67 | 86.7 | 84.4130026830804 | 2.2869973169196 |
| 68 | 84.4 | 86.5289538429732 | -2.12895384297322 |
| 69 | 86 | 84.5592259731282 | 1.44077402687185 |
| 70 | 90.4 | 85.8922434851072 | 4.5077565148928 |
| 71 | 92.9 | 90.0628616820052 | 2.83713831799479 |
| 72 | 105.8 | 92.6878084059582 | 13.1121915940418 |
| 73 | 106 | 104.819329858515 | 1.18067014148517 |
| 74 | 99.1 | 105.911696839816 | -6.81169683981557 |
| 75 | 99.9 | 99.6094516546488 | 0.290548345351255 |
| 76 | 88.1 | 99.8782696824631 | -11.7782696824631 |
| 77 | 87.8 | 88.9809051723436 | -1.18090517234357 |
| 78 | 87.1 | 87.8883207383096 | -0.788320738309608 |
| 79 | 85.9 | 87.1589590690793 | -1.25895906907927 |
| 80 | 86.5 | 85.9941584447987 | 0.505841555201258 |
| 81 | 84.1 | 86.4621677500706 | -2.36216775007058 |
| 82 | 92.1 | 84.2766682072222 | 7.82333179277781 |
| 83 | 93.3 | 91.5148874472216 | 1.78511255277837 |
| 84 | 98.9 | 93.1664901616831 | 5.73350983831686 |
| 85 | 103 | 98.4711867185571 | 4.52881328144288 |
| 86 | 98.4 | 102.661286831448 | -4.26128683144847 |
| 87 | 100.7 | 98.7187046749534 | 1.98129532504662 |
| 88 | 92.3 | 100.551817512519 | -8.25181751251864 |
| 89 | 89 | 92.9171593047183 | -3.91715930471827 |
| 90 | 88.9 | 89.2929671323079 | -0.392967132307874 |
| 91 | 85.5 | 88.9293902915066 | -3.42939029150661 |
| 92 | 90.1 | 85.7564865406564 | 4.34351345934361 |
| 93 | 87 | 89.7751455370243 | -2.77514553702427 |
| 94 | 97.1 | 87.2075551098317 | 9.89244489016831 |
| 95 | 101.5 | 96.3601370060453 | 5.13986299395471 |
| 96 | 103 | 101.115585988555 | 1.88441401144462 |
| 97 | 106.1 | 102.859063334915 | 3.240936665085 |
| 98 | 96.1 | 105.857608040189 | -9.75760804018928 |
| 99 | 94.2 | 96.8297784499791 | -2.62977844997913 |
| 100 | 89.1 | 94.3966830019314 | -5.2966830019314 |
| 101 | 85.2 | 89.4961426914526 | -4.29614269145262 |
| 102 | 86.5 | 85.5213115695306 | 0.978688430469418 |
| 103 | 88 | 86.4268031957362 | 1.57319680426379 |
| 104 | 88.4 | 87.8823394913386 | 0.51766050866145 |
| 105 | 87.9 | 88.3612838021295 | -0.461283802129543 |
| 106 | 95.7 | 87.9344997438647 | 7.76550025613531 |
| 107 | 94.8 | 95.1192127090068 | -0.31921270900682 |
| 108 | 105.2 | 94.8238741456957 | 10.3761258543043 |
| 109 | 108.7 | 104.423962162494 | 4.27603783750631 |
| 110 | 96.1 | 108.380192086805 | -12.280192086805 |
| 111 | 98.3 | 97.0184443061909 | 1.28155569380908 |
| 112 | 88.6 | 98.2041515375553 | -9.60415153755532 |
| 113 | 90.8 | 89.3183013289296 | 1.48169867107042 |
| 114 | 88.1 | 90.6891827018408 | -2.58918270184084 |
| 115 | 91.9 | 88.2936468170354 | 3.60635318296457 |
| 116 | 98.5 | 91.630278278744 | 6.86972172125598 |
| 117 | 98.6 | 97.9862086231711 | 0.613791376828942 |
| 118 | 100.3 | 98.5540941060813 | 1.74590589391867 |
| 119 | 98.7 | 100.169422455603 | -1.46942245560329 |
| 120 | 110.7 | 98.8098991512672 | 11.8901008487328 |
| 121 | 115.4 | 109.810730895139 | 5.58926910486102 |
| 122 | 105.4 | 114.981974585671 | -9.58197458567084 |
| 123 | 108 | 106.116642698914 | 1.88335730108558 |
| 124 | 94.5 | 107.859142367035 | -13.3591423670348 |
| 125 | 96.5 | 95.4991397655563 | 1.00086023444368 |
| 126 | 91 | 96.4251449507369 | -5.42514495073694 |
| 127 | 94.1 | 91.4057504520323 | 2.69424954796769 |
| 128 | 96.4 | 93.8984951587649 | 2.50150484123513 |
| 129 | 93.1 | 96.2129106725611 | -3.11291067256107 |
| 130 | 97.5 | 93.3328168047116 | 4.1671831952884 |
| 131 | 102.5 | 97.1883334029702 | 5.31166659702983 |
| 132 | 105.7 | 102.102736674806 | 3.59726332519411 |
| 133 | 109.1 | 105.430958115676 | 3.66904188432393 |
| 134 | 97.2 | 108.825589746153 | -11.6255897461527 |
| 135 | 100.3 | 98.0694861312421 | 2.23051386875794 |
| 136 | 91.3 | 100.133178280261 | -8.83317828026144 |
| 137 | 94.3 | 91.9606396903019 | 2.33936030969805 |
| 138 | 89.5 | 94.1250375774757 | -4.62503757747568 |
| 139 | 89.3 | 89.8459098521363 | -0.545909852136262 |
| 140 | 93.4 | 89.3408289863745 | 4.05917101362553 |
| 141 | 91.9 | 93.0964117109108 | -1.19641171091082 |
| 142 | 92.9 | 91.9894804833653 | 0.910519516634693 |
| 143 | 93.7 | 92.8319015973189 | 0.868098402681127 |
| 144 | 100.1 | 93.6350743026233 | 6.46492569737671 |
| 145 | 105.5 | 99.6164836058971 | 5.88351639410291 |
| 146 | 110.5 | 105.059967621488 | 5.4400323785123 |
| 147 | 89.5 | 110.093136106649 | -20.5931361066487 |
| 148 | 90.4 | 91.0401753058968 | -0.640175305896776 |
| 149 | 89.9 | 90.4478791667515 | -0.547879166751528 |
| 150 | 84.6 | 89.9409762728161 | -5.34097627281615 |
| 151 | 86.2 | 84.9994554167064 | 1.20054458329365 |
| 152 | 83.4 | 86.1102104161677 | -2.71021041616774 |
| 153 | 82.9 | 83.6026985659274 | -0.70269856592742 |
| 154 | 81.8 | 82.9525553258681 | -1.15255532586809 |
| 155 | 87.6 | 81.8862004331146 | 5.71379956688537 |
| 156 | 94.6 | 87.1726608637856 | 7.42733913621439 |
| 157 | 99.6 | 94.0445040198406 | 5.55549598015938 |
| 158 | 96.7 | 99.1845005017042 | -2.48450050170416 |
| 159 | 99.8 | 96.8858175607832 | 2.91418243921684 |
| 160 | 83.8 | 99.5820462212984 | -15.7820462212984 |
| 161 | 82.4 | 84.980350469238 | -2.58035046923801 |
| 162 | 86.8 | 82.592986248073 | 4.20701375192695 |
| 163 | 91 | 86.4853544472911 | 4.5146455527089 |
| 164 | 85.3 | 90.6623464459639 | -5.36234644596391 |
| 165 | 83.6 | 85.7010537071656 | -2.10105370716559 |
| 166 | 94 | 83.7571393021141 | 10.2428606978859 |
| 167 | 100.3 | 93.2339291583893 | 7.06607084161071 |
| 168 | 107.1 | 99.7715235327147 | 7.32847646728526 |
| 169 | 100.7 | 106.551898029212 | -5.85189802921207 |
| 170 | 95.5 | 101.137667618499 | -5.6376676184988 |
| 171 | 92.9 | 95.9216451736102 | -3.02164517361015 |
| 172 | 79.2 | 93.1259909930899 | -13.9259909930899 |
| 173 | 82 | 80.2415347777347 | 1.75846522226533 |
| 174 | 79.3 | 81.8684831344976 | -2.56848313449758 |
| 175 | 81.5 | 79.4920986816616 | 2.00790131833838 |
| 176 | 76 | 81.3498276313444 | -5.34982763134441 |
| 177 | 73.1 | 76.4001174161103 | -3.30011741611035 |
| 178 | 80.4 | 73.3468181302998 | 7.05318186970018 |
| 179 | 82.1 | 79.8724875080972 | 2.22751249190276 |
| 180 | 90.5 | 81.9334027553726 | 8.56659724462743 |
| 181 | 98.1 | 89.8592980950833 | 8.24070190491669 |
| 182 | 89.5 | 97.4836720394854 | -7.98367203948544 |
| 183 | 86.5 | 90.0971045139465 | -3.59710451394646 |
| 184 | 77 | 86.7690300067177 | -9.7690300067177 |
| 185 | 74.7 | 77.730632706985 | -3.03063270698499 |
| 186 | 73.4 | 74.9266631771076 | -1.52666317710755 |
| 187 | 72.5 | 73.5141802255677 | -1.01418022556769 |
| 188 | 69.3 | 72.5758512608793 | -3.27585126087929 |
| 189 | 75.2 | 69.5450032472795 | 5.65499675272054 |
| 190 | 83.5 | 74.777058768108 | 8.72294123189204 |
| 191 | 90.5 | 82.8476050170031 | 7.65239498299685 |
| 192 | 92.2 | 89.9276719328838 | 2.27232806711625 |
| 193 | 110.5 | 92.0300509666064 | 18.4699490333936 |
| 194 | 101.8 | 109.11861936642 | -7.31861936641984 |
| 195 | 107.4 | 102.347364751199 | 5.05263524880127 |
| 196 | 95.5 | 107.022109813697 | -11.5221098136969 |
| 197 | 84.5 | 96.3617467934453 | -11.8617467934453 |
| 198 | 81.1 | 85.387148484886 | -4.28714848488602 |
| 199 | 86.2 | 81.4206388864201 | 4.77936111357987 |
| 200 | 91.5 | 85.8425481807639 | 5.65745181923614 |
| 201 | 84.7 | 91.0768751519359 | -6.37687515193593 |
| 202 | 92.2 | 85.1769310311423 | 7.02306896885766 |
| 203 | 99.2 | 91.6747396733831 | 7.5252603266169 |
| 204 | 104.5 | 98.6371804243183 | 5.86281957568173 |
| 205 | 113 | 104.061515551268 | 8.9384844487323 |
| 206 | 100.4 | 112.33148438641 | -11.9314843864099 |
| 207 | 101 | 101.292364209097 | -0.292364209097258 |
| 208 | 84.8 | 101.021866127279 | -16.2218661272789 |
| 209 | 86.5 | 86.0132449130335 | 0.486755086966483 |
| 210 | 91.7 | 86.463595240614 | 5.23640475938599 |
| 211 | 94.8 | 91.3083655612084 | 3.49163443879161 |
| 212 | 95 | 94.538858175268 | 0.461141824732039 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 213 | 94.9655108747259 | 83.3489510096735 | 106.582070739778 |
| 214 | 94.9655108747259 | 79.1396278505966 | 110.791393898855 |
| 215 | 94.9655108747259 | 75.8350983363487 | 114.095923413103 |
| 216 | 94.9655108747259 | 73.0227035273609 | 116.908318222091 |
| 217 | 94.9655108747259 | 70.5319089159755 | 119.399112833476 |
| 218 | 94.9655108747259 | 68.2725339880291 | 121.658487761423 |
| 219 | 94.9655108747259 | 66.1900156492948 | 123.741006100157 |
| 220 | 94.9655108747259 | 64.2483619858091 | 125.682659763643 |
| 221 | 94.9655108747259 | 62.4223495922235 | 127.508672157228 |
| 222 | 94.9655108747259 | 60.693489389934 | 129.237532359518 |
| 223 | 94.9655108747259 | 59.0477497105176 | 130.883272038934 |
| 224 | 94.9655108747259 | 57.4741828448442 | 132.456838904608 |
