| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.969230394189115 |
| beta | 0.0812149495565841 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 96.5 | 80.1 | 16.4 |
| 4 | 89.5 | 88.486320824895 | 1.01367917510497 |
| 5 | 85.4 | 82.039544619044 | 3.36045538095601 |
| 6 | 84.3 | 78.1318568378744 | 6.16814316212563 |
| 7 | 83.7 | 77.4309969337861 | 6.26900306621386 |
| 8 | 86.2 | 77.3213643444391 | 8.87863565556094 |
| 9 | 90.7 | 80.4399576410663 | 10.2600423589337 |
| 10 | 95.7 | 85.7050817707614 | 9.99491822923856 |
| 11 | 95.6 | 91.499999494796 | 4.10000050520404 |
| 12 | 97 | 91.9041194192681 | 5.09588058073189 |
| 13 | 97.2 | 93.6746039053333 | 3.52539609466673 |
| 14 | 86.6 | 94.2004321643325 | -7.60043216433247 |
| 15 | 88.4 | 83.3444939143818 | 5.05550608561818 |
| 16 | 81.4 | 85.1530248880286 | -3.75302488802862 |
| 17 | 86.9 | 78.1286368158841 | 8.77136318411593 |
| 18 | 84.9 | 83.9337129349925 | 0.966287065007535 |
| 19 | 83.7 | 82.2499343007651 | 1.4500656992349 |
| 20 | 86.8 | 81.1491919909516 | 5.65080800904845 |
| 21 | 88.3 | 84.56474579549 | 3.73525420451003 |
| 22 | 92.5 | 86.4177108918611 | 6.08228910813894 |
| 23 | 94.7 | 91.0242670077252 | 3.67573299227477 |
| 24 | 94.5 | 93.5876547800702 | 0.91234521992979 |
| 25 | 98.7 | 93.5444992966454 | 5.1555007033546 |
| 26 | 88.6 | 98.0197594558779 | -9.41975945587787 |
| 27 | 95.2 | 87.6267487031035 | 7.57325129689652 |
| 28 | 91.3 | 94.300016491405 | -3.00001649140505 |
| 29 | 91.7 | 90.4892024825283 | 1.21079751747173 |
| 30 | 89.3 | 90.8549465297786 | -1.55494652977863 |
| 31 | 88.7 | 88.4176482166225 | 0.28235178337755 |
| 32 | 91.2 | 87.7833408740647 | 3.41665912593534 |
| 33 | 88.6 | 90.4558452041081 | -1.85584520410814 |
| 34 | 94.6 | 87.8719933773977 | 6.72800662260228 |
| 35 | 96 | 94.1374733933252 | 1.86252660667482 |
| 36 | 94.3 | 95.8337929353463 | -1.53379293534627 |
| 37 | 102 | 94.1175623078862 | 7.88243769211381 |
| 38 | 93.4 | 102.148302549495 | -8.74830254949485 |
| 39 | 96.7 | 93.3713925088204 | 3.3286074911796 |
| 40 | 93.7 | 96.5618054066518 | -2.86180540665177 |
| 41 | 91.6 | 93.5270121038809 | -1.9270121038809 |
| 42 | 89.6 | 91.2465622023482 | -1.64656220234818 |
| 43 | 92.9 | 89.1083220831049 | 3.79167791689515 |
| 44 | 94.1 | 92.5394552880339 | 1.56054471196613 |
| 45 | 92 | 93.9309462110204 | -1.93094621102044 |
| 46 | 97.5 | 91.7863816531532 | 5.71361834684681 |
| 47 | 92.7 | 97.5009145830339 | -4.8009145830339 |
| 48 | 100.7 | 92.6465338359067 | 8.05346616409329 |
| 49 | 105.9 | 100.8849462304 | 5.01505376960023 |
| 50 | 95.3 | 106.573201942424 | -11.2732019424244 |
| 51 | 99.8 | 95.587003813293 | 4.21299618670697 |
| 52 | 91.3 | 99.9421297989573 | -8.64212979895734 |
| 53 | 90.8 | 91.1574030899071 | -0.357403089907137 |
| 54 | 87.1 | 90.3743519740611 | -3.27435197406112 |
| 55 | 91.4 | 86.5063614593544 | 4.8936385406456 |
| 56 | 86.1 | 90.9402432504374 | -4.84024325043737 |
| 57 | 87.1 | 85.5587463802056 | 1.54125361979435 |
| 58 | 92.6 | 86.48371155322 | 6.11628844678 |
| 59 | 96.6 | 92.3243892815537 | 4.27561071844629 |
| 60 | 105.3 | 96.7175851726148 | 8.58241482738522 |
| 61 | 102.4 | 105.960639852599 | -3.56063985259902 |
| 62 | 98.2 | 103.153997540447 | -4.95399754044747 |
| 63 | 98.6 | 98.6069117488867 | -0.00691174888673629 |
| 64 | 92.6 | 98.8541478039592 | -6.25414780395917 |
| 65 | 87.9 | 92.554071311425 | -4.65407131142504 |
| 66 | 84.1 | 87.4384877224289 | -3.33848772242887 |
| 67 | 86.7 | 83.3352153425287 | 3.36478465747129 |
| 68 | 84.4 | 85.9938206746866 | -1.59382067468663 |
| 69 | 86 | 83.7209358217688 | 2.2790641782312 |
| 70 | 90.4 | 85.3811674918154 | 5.01883250818457 |
| 71 | 92.9 | 90.0919283078221 | 2.80807169217795 |
| 72 | 105.8 | 92.8809927111784 | 12.9190072888216 |
| 73 | 106 | 106.48681575488 | -0.486815754879984 |
| 74 | 99.1 | 107.060987457726 | -7.96098745772564 |
| 75 | 99.9 | 99.7643077053858 | 0.135692294614188 |
| 76 | 88.1 | 100.325857215363 | -12.2258572153629 |
| 77 | 87.8 | 87.943846674107 | -0.143846674106953 |
| 78 | 87.1 | 87.2607649378997 | -0.1607649378997 |
| 79 | 85.9 | 86.5486307337461 | -0.648630733746103 |
| 80 | 86.5 | 85.3125845567097 | 1.18741544329026 |
| 81 | 84.1 | 85.9495587307436 | -1.84955873074365 |
| 82 | 92.1 | 83.4974153683766 | 8.60258463162342 |
| 83 | 93.3 | 91.8529680682202 | 1.44703193177983 |
| 84 | 98.9 | 93.3870461661831 | 5.51295383381691 |
| 85 | 103 | 99.2958970126011 | 3.70410298739887 |
| 86 | 98.4 | 103.743126801882 | -5.3431268018815 |
| 87 | 100.7 | 99.0009169398102 | 1.69908306018979 |
| 88 | 92.3 | 101.217975936359 | -8.9179759363586 |
| 89 | 89 | 92.4426712843928 | -3.4426712843928 |
| 90 | 88.9 | 88.7032050140912 | 0.196794985908809 |
| 91 | 85.5 | 88.5067109852251 | -3.00671098522514 |
| 92 | 90.1 | 84.9686053465547 | 5.13139465344527 |
| 93 | 87 | 89.722121893091 | -2.72212189309104 |
| 94 | 97.1 | 86.6494969611279 | 10.4505030388721 |
| 95 | 101.5 | 97.1668022563189 | 4.33319774368111 |
| 96 | 103 | 102.096121311951 | 0.903878688049289 |
| 97 | 106.1 | 103.772789820107 | 2.32721017989316 |
| 98 | 96.1 | 107.012183142036 | -10.9121831420364 |
| 99 | 94.2 | 96.5605906740052 | -2.36059067400518 |
| 100 | 89.1 | 94.2116452949432 | -5.11164529494323 |
| 101 | 85.2 | 88.7939259025641 | -3.59392590256405 |
| 102 | 86.5 | 84.564326812506 | 1.93567318749396 |
| 103 | 88 | 85.8465516741412 | 2.15344832585882 |
| 104 | 88.4 | 87.5093616521697 | 0.890638347830318 |
| 105 | 87.9 | 88.0183253034337 | -0.118325303433721 |
| 106 | 95.7 | 87.5400566229627 | 8.15994337703727 |
| 107 | 94.8 | 95.7276556419289 | -0.927655641928922 |
| 108 | 105.2 | 95.0342561422514 | 10.1657438577486 |
| 109 | 108.7 | 105.893123281376 | 2.80687671862428 |
| 110 | 96.1 | 109.840498823432 | -13.7404988234316 |
| 111 | 98.3 | 96.6680579740313 | 1.63194202596871 |
| 112 | 88.6 | 98.5235139732992 | -9.92351397329918 |
| 113 | 90.8 | 88.397931497526 | 2.40206850247397 |
| 114 | 88.1 | 90.4077594017673 | -2.30775940176733 |
| 115 | 91.9 | 87.6710213663499 | 4.22897863365014 |
| 116 | 98.5 | 91.6027767855728 | 6.8972232144272 |
| 117 | 98.6 | 98.663597757421 | -0.0635977574210074 |
| 118 | 100.3 | 98.9727733139261 | 1.32722668607387 |
| 119 | 98.7 | 100.734452166647 | -2.03445216664716 |
| 120 | 110.7 | 99.0777457679965 | 11.6222542320035 |
| 121 | 115.4 | 111.572391631352 | 3.82760836864844 |
| 122 | 105.4 | 116.813523823059 | -11.4135238230585 |
| 123 | 108 | 106.384060539156 | 1.61593946084376 |
| 124 | 94.5 | 108.710349376661 | -14.2103493766607 |
| 125 | 96.5 | 94.5787362185984 | 1.92126378140165 |
| 126 | 91 | 96.2336070357846 | -5.23360703578457 |
| 127 | 94.1 | 90.5417909917315 | 3.55820900826848 |
| 128 | 96.4 | 93.6513582493525 | 2.74864175064752 |
| 129 | 93.1 | 96.1926303921193 | -3.09263039211929 |
| 130 | 97.5 | 92.8289245469468 | 4.67107545305323 |
| 131 | 102.5 | 97.3577267424839 | 5.14227325751607 |
| 132 | 105.7 | 102.748007341039 | 2.95199265896115 |
| 133 | 109.1 | 106.247770458649 | 2.85222954135072 |
| 134 | 97.2 | 109.875356224107 | -12.6753562241066 |
| 135 | 100.3 | 97.4553806075335 | 2.84461939246646 |
| 136 | 91.3 | 100.30175412881 | -9.00175412880991 |
| 137 | 94.3 | 90.9576803161939 | 3.34231968380607 |
| 138 | 89.5 | 93.8409520589972 | -4.3409520589972 |
| 139 | 89.3 | 88.9356609301216 | 0.364339069878383 |
| 140 | 93.4 | 88.6195602902009 | 4.78043970979913 |
| 141 | 91.9 | 92.9599756948827 | -1.05997569488265 |
| 142 | 92.9 | 91.556245930431 | 1.34375406956904 |
| 143 | 93.7 | 92.5880590551815 | 1.11194094481851 |
| 144 | 100.1 | 93.4827193943653 | 6.61728060563473 |
| 145 | 105.5 | 100.234208107238 | 5.26579189276156 |
| 146 | 110.5 | 106.090294944041 | 4.40970505595924 |
| 147 | 89.5 | 111.463750731031 | -21.9637507310306 |
| 148 | 90.4 | 89.5463530202342 | 0.853646979765784 |
| 149 | 89.9 | 89.8114663606301 | 0.0885336393699134 |
| 150 | 84.6 | 89.3419776102565 | -4.74197761025647 |
| 151 | 86.2 | 83.8173410392134 | 2.38265896078661 |
| 152 | 83.4 | 85.3856721573506 | -1.98567215735062 |
| 153 | 82.9 | 82.5637798191888 | 0.336220180811225 |
| 154 | 81.8 | 82.0188020141449 | -0.218802014144885 |
| 155 | 87.6 | 80.9186566094856 | 6.68134339051439 |
| 156 | 94.6 | 87.0322704654571 | 7.56772953454291 |
| 157 | 99.6 | 94.6006980928816 | 4.99930190711838 |
| 158 | 96.7 | 100.073252635318 | -3.37325263531756 |
| 159 | 99.8 | 97.1653438919644 | 2.63465610803557 |
| 160 | 83.8 | 100.287872491989 | -16.4878724919889 |
| 161 | 82.4 | 83.5784058280594 | -1.17840582805937 |
| 162 | 86.8 | 81.6145801833341 | 5.18541981666587 |
| 163 | 91 | 86.2269432704992 | 4.77305672950078 |
| 164 | 85.3 | 90.8153474420764 | -5.51534744207638 |
| 165 | 83.6 | 84.9977715069953 | -1.39777150699535 |
| 166 | 94 | 83.0610483400246 | 10.9389516599754 |
| 167 | 100.3 | 93.9425227234942 | 6.35747727650578 |
| 168 | 107.1 | 100.883928050173 | 6.21607194982731 |
| 169 | 100.7 | 108.177583340849 | -7.47758334084895 |
| 170 | 95.5 | 101.610326284145 | -6.11032628414469 |
| 171 | 92.9 | 95.8872758945161 | -2.98727589451613 |
| 172 | 79.2 | 92.9560344630378 | -13.7560344630378 |
| 173 | 82 | 78.5045649438603 | 3.49543505613973 |
| 174 | 79.3 | 81.0488906844916 | -1.74889068449158 |
| 175 | 81.5 | 78.3725908453992 | 3.12740915460081 |
| 176 | 76 | 80.6687261529573 | -4.66872615295728 |
| 177 | 73.1 | 75.041106726695 | -1.94110672669503 |
| 178 | 80.4 | 71.9043827997598 | 8.49561720024022 |
| 179 | 82.1 | 79.5519899014843 | 2.54801009851568 |
| 180 | 90.5 | 81.6355645842525 | 8.86443541574745 |
| 181 | 98.1 | 90.5389835437775 | 7.56101645622253 |
| 182 | 89.5 | 98.7742621843842 | -9.27426218438421 |
| 183 | 86.5 | 89.9622442722768 | -3.46224427227681 |
| 184 | 77 | 86.5108767604226 | -9.51087676042256 |
| 185 | 74.7 | 76.4483326457893 | -1.7483326457893 |
| 186 | 73.4 | 73.7718604749901 | -0.371860474990086 |
| 187 | 72.5 | 72.4002356006382 | 0.0997643993617885 |
| 188 | 69.3 | 71.4935769433818 | -2.19357694338181 |
| 189 | 75.2 | 68.1914725551369 | 7.00852744486312 |
| 190 | 83.5 | 74.3600106598186 | 9.13998934018143 |
| 191 | 90.5 | 83.3138897962156 | 7.18611020378437 |
| 192 | 92.2 | 90.9396717204035 | 1.26032827959652 |
| 193 | 110.5 | 92.9212136921296 | 17.5787863078704 |
| 194 | 101.8 | 112.102832871501 | -10.3028328715009 |
| 195 | 107.4 | 103.449741535714 | 3.95025846428648 |
| 196 | 95.5 | 108.922128069411 | -13.4221280694114 |
| 197 | 84.5 | 96.5001333545143 | -12.0001333545143 |
| 198 | 81.1 | 84.5117766696648 | -3.41177666966485 |
| 199 | 86.2 | 80.5789549158605 | 5.62104508413945 |
| 200 | 91.5 | 85.8434847223356 | 5.65651527766438 |
| 201 | 84.7 | 91.5876515613298 | -6.8876515613298 |
| 202 | 92.2 | 84.6314622666079 | 7.56853773339213 |
| 203 | 99.2 | 92.2824160183329 | 6.91758398166708 |
| 204 | 104.5 | 99.846970132585 | 4.653029867415 |
| 205 | 113 | 105.582917457767 | 7.41708254223255 |
| 206 | 100.4 | 114.581711697914 | -14.1817116979142 |
| 207 | 101 | 101.529970499083 | -0.529970499083134 |
| 208 | 84.8 | 101.668194647243 | -16.8681946472434 |
| 209 | 86.5 | 84.6431185950226 | 1.85688140497736 |
| 210 | 91.7 | 85.9131216582841 | 5.78687834171589 |
| 211 | 94.8 | 91.4477171032031 | 3.35228289679685 |
| 212 | 95 | 94.8865069377198 | 0.113493062280199 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 213 | 95.1950969438471 | 82.8080297473932 | 107.582164140301 |
| 214 | 95.3936860244829 | 77.4508507664047 | 113.336521282561 |
| 215 | 95.5922751051187 | 72.8608768721904 | 118.323673338047 |
| 216 | 95.7908641857545 | 68.5942779168233 | 122.987450454686 |
| 217 | 95.9894532663903 | 64.4829406117901 | 127.49596592099 |
| 218 | 96.1880423470261 | 60.4440070975638 | 131.932077596488 |
| 219 | 96.3866314276618 | 56.4306188783346 | 136.342643976989 |
| 220 | 96.5852205082976 | 52.4139348827501 | 140.756506133845 |
| 221 | 96.7838095889334 | 48.3751724855451 | 145.192446692322 |
| 222 | 96.9823986695692 | 44.301610507269 | 149.663186831869 |
| 223 | 97.180987750205 | 40.1843927223252 | 154.177582778085 |
| 224 | 97.3795768308407 | 36.0172362488671 | 158.741917412814 |
