| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.489424633285978 |
| beta | 0.0033405842979422 |
| gamma | 0.580456908917259 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 97.2 | 98.5406902105951 | -1.34069021059513 |
| 14 | 86.6 | 87.0283710321231 | -0.428371032123081 |
| 15 | 88.4 | 88.5362752897322 | -0.136275289732211 |
| 16 | 81.4 | 81.5279709764879 | -0.127970976487887 |
| 17 | 86.9 | 86.9768580107083 | -0.0768580107083352 |
| 18 | 84.9 | 84.9172526075208 | -0.0172526075207884 |
| 19 | 83.7 | 81.7316600558183 | 1.96833994418172 |
| 20 | 86.8 | 85.122193113331 | 1.67780688666898 |
| 21 | 88.3 | 90.7055617471191 | -2.40556174711909 |
| 22 | 92.5 | 95.0023707788639 | -2.50237077886389 |
| 23 | 94.7 | 93.791134005805 | 0.908865994194954 |
| 24 | 94.5 | 95.3449473329827 | -0.844947332982741 |
| 25 | 98.7 | 94.5360181861916 | 4.16398181380839 |
| 26 | 88.6 | 86.0891697143036 | 2.5108302856964 |
| 27 | 95.2 | 89.1448991896064 | 6.05510081039355 |
| 28 | 91.3 | 84.9039850041152 | 6.39601499588476 |
| 29 | 91.7 | 94.0522684529454 | -2.35226845294537 |
| 30 | 89.3 | 90.7950480007364 | -1.49504800073643 |
| 31 | 88.7 | 87.3418744326108 | 1.35812556738922 |
| 32 | 91.2 | 90.5063775379996 | 0.693622462000405 |
| 33 | 88.6 | 94.5984373121041 | -5.99843731210412 |
| 34 | 94.6 | 97.2946367118852 | -2.69463671188525 |
| 35 | 96 | 97.0532611437824 | -1.05326114378244 |
| 36 | 94.3 | 97.1555740886016 | -2.8555740886016 |
| 37 | 102 | 96.8452416516365 | 5.15475834836347 |
| 38 | 93.4 | 88.2204491353145 | 5.17955086468547 |
| 39 | 96.7 | 93.6811056387192 | 3.01889436128079 |
| 40 | 93.7 | 87.9029672822638 | 5.79703271773622 |
| 41 | 91.6 | 94.1970342377097 | -2.59703423770972 |
| 42 | 89.6 | 91.0647203059072 | -1.46472030590719 |
| 43 | 92.9 | 88.4623839901286 | 4.43761600987143 |
| 44 | 94.1 | 93.0106267175961 | 1.08937328240394 |
| 45 | 92 | 95.3205816450594 | -3.32058164505938 |
| 46 | 97.5 | 100.601334845667 | -3.10133484566715 |
| 47 | 92.7 | 100.735520114048 | -8.03552011404807 |
| 48 | 100.7 | 96.8831750013738 | 3.81682499862617 |
| 49 | 105.9 | 102.338455486052 | 3.5615445139485 |
| 50 | 95.3 | 92.5646576569912 | 2.73534234300882 |
| 51 | 99.8 | 96.2278847716693 | 3.57211522833073 |
| 52 | 91.3 | 91.3738249263312 | -0.0738249263312127 |
| 53 | 90.8 | 92.2844395287589 | -1.48443952875891 |
| 54 | 87.1 | 90.0408769686152 | -2.94087696861524 |
| 55 | 91.4 | 88.4349726380668 | 2.9650273619332 |
| 56 | 86.1 | 91.2326418068929 | -5.13264180689295 |
| 57 | 87.1 | 89.1298090634055 | -2.02980906340548 |
| 58 | 92.6 | 94.7323667350736 | -2.1323667350736 |
| 59 | 96.6 | 93.7616994282245 | 2.83830057177545 |
| 60 | 105.3 | 98.7595999290551 | 6.5404000709449 |
| 61 | 102.4 | 105.543588219864 | -3.1435882198643 |
| 62 | 98.2 | 92.3589184717204 | 5.84108152827956 |
| 63 | 98.6 | 97.7926567578437 | 0.807343242156293 |
| 64 | 92.6 | 90.5719437162236 | 2.02805628377644 |
| 65 | 87.9 | 92.0972753288122 | -4.19727532881222 |
| 66 | 84.1 | 88.1032829640416 | -4.0032829640416 |
| 67 | 86.7 | 87.682445241045 | -0.982445241044985 |
| 68 | 84.4 | 86.1366700164529 | -1.73667001645288 |
| 69 | 86 | 86.5753722568462 | -0.575372256846165 |
| 70 | 90.4 | 92.7582436940753 | -2.35824369407534 |
| 71 | 92.9 | 93.1121559226043 | -0.212155922604296 |
| 72 | 105.8 | 97.499615893682 | 8.30038410631799 |
| 73 | 106 | 102.240219860145 | 3.75978013985491 |
| 74 | 99.1 | 94.96643434821 | 4.13356565179001 |
| 75 | 99.9 | 98.0776684722104 | 1.82233152778956 |
| 76 | 88.1 | 91.67621937329 | -3.57621937328996 |
| 77 | 87.8 | 88.6126873188204 | -0.812687318820409 |
| 78 | 87.1 | 86.3203616377228 | 0.779638362277154 |
| 79 | 85.9 | 89.1974776731827 | -3.29747767318271 |
| 80 | 86.5 | 86.2879740137896 | 0.212025986210449 |
| 81 | 84.1 | 88.0681023259726 | -3.96810232597265 |
| 82 | 92.1 | 92.0586815483962 | 0.0413184516037575 |
| 83 | 93.3 | 94.2618624101664 | -0.961862410166418 |
| 84 | 98.9 | 100.779911384024 | -1.87991138402366 |
| 85 | 103 | 99.1861146369218 | 3.81388536307821 |
| 86 | 98.4 | 92.3670190714391 | 6.03298092856092 |
| 87 | 100.7 | 95.6982202029161 | 5.00177979708393 |
| 88 | 92.3 | 89.3535616205105 | 2.94643837948945 |
| 89 | 89 | 90.3031568368486 | -1.30315683684856 |
| 90 | 88.9 | 88.2266611570047 | 0.673338842995264 |
| 91 | 85.5 | 89.8614009634956 | -4.36140096349557 |
| 92 | 90.1 | 87.4777939877356 | 2.62220601226441 |
| 93 | 87 | 89.198651312998 | -2.198651312998 |
| 94 | 97.1 | 95.5309731003175 | 1.56902689968253 |
| 95 | 101.5 | 98.2949105915815 | 3.20508940841846 |
| 96 | 103 | 107.069802110009 | -4.06980211000864 |
| 97 | 106.1 | 106.16234995582 | -0.0623499558202241 |
| 98 | 96.1 | 97.7582967070002 | -1.65829670700016 |
| 99 | 94.2 | 96.9865602010526 | -2.78656020105264 |
| 100 | 89.1 | 86.5735135764572 | 2.52648642354278 |
| 101 | 85.2 | 86.1165909518759 | -0.916590951875918 |
| 102 | 86.5 | 84.8369906228253 | 1.66300937717472 |
| 103 | 88 | 85.4305289075196 | 2.56947109248041 |
| 104 | 88.4 | 88.5084187977972 | -0.108418797797199 |
| 105 | 87.9 | 87.4676915429366 | 0.432308457063371 |
| 106 | 95.7 | 96.2266593398136 | -0.526659339813634 |
| 107 | 94.8 | 98.4157473340678 | -3.61574733406781 |
| 108 | 105.2 | 101.451114448942 | 3.74888555105822 |
| 109 | 108.7 | 105.547680055504 | 3.1523199444965 |
| 110 | 96.1 | 98.1672562870916 | -2.06725628709165 |
| 111 | 98.3 | 96.8549645214162 | 1.44503547858383 |
| 112 | 88.6 | 89.8749736633895 | -1.27497366338952 |
| 113 | 90.8 | 86.5217600897632 | 4.27823991023678 |
| 114 | 88.1 | 88.5608882070516 | -0.460888207051568 |
| 115 | 91.9 | 88.3877032019552 | 3.51229679804476 |
| 116 | 98.5 | 91.1809104863387 | 7.31908951366132 |
| 117 | 98.6 | 93.9085559041114 | 4.69144409588861 |
| 118 | 100.3 | 105.303581723062 | -5.00358172306214 |
| 119 | 98.7 | 104.514343245628 | -5.81434324562805 |
| 120 | 110.7 | 109.115649776566 | 1.58435022343396 |
| 121 | 115.4 | 112.101613294094 | 3.2983867059059 |
| 122 | 105.4 | 102.714514454159 | 2.68548554584102 |
| 123 | 108 | 104.861497199068 | 3.13850280093205 |
| 124 | 94.5 | 97.210762337359 | -2.710762337359 |
| 125 | 96.5 | 94.7176397098472 | 1.78236029015279 |
| 126 | 91 | 94.0658222963437 | -3.06582229634371 |
| 127 | 94.1 | 93.8582017457566 | 0.241798254243392 |
| 128 | 96.4 | 96.1786606899244 | 0.221339310075621 |
| 129 | 93.1 | 94.6321919255452 | -1.53219192554516 |
| 130 | 97.5 | 99.8243824732456 | -2.32438247324562 |
| 131 | 102.5 | 100.013662564907 | 2.48633743509293 |
| 132 | 105.7 | 111.000747568092 | -5.30074756809171 |
| 133 | 109.1 | 111.058535138485 | -1.95853513848537 |
| 134 | 97.2 | 99.3412155788951 | -2.14121557889509 |
| 135 | 100.3 | 99.1634807018348 | 1.13651929816521 |
| 136 | 91.3 | 89.5384193694128 | 1.76158063058723 |
| 137 | 94.3 | 90.5369335553444 | 3.76306644465562 |
| 138 | 89.5 | 89.5070904910066 | -0.00709049100660764 |
| 139 | 89.3 | 91.7174477303793 | -2.41744773037932 |
| 140 | 93.4 | 92.636685726067 | 0.763314273933005 |
| 141 | 91.9 | 90.8975196855747 | 1.0024803144253 |
| 142 | 92.9 | 96.9576581225063 | -4.05765812250627 |
| 143 | 93.7 | 97.6213435727307 | -3.92134357273069 |
| 144 | 100.1 | 102.646515690114 | -2.54651569011358 |
| 145 | 105.5 | 104.832776028833 | 0.66722397116682 |
| 146 | 110.5 | 94.7572607474029 | 15.7427392525971 |
| 147 | 89.5 | 104.418030315439 | -14.9180303154393 |
| 148 | 90.4 | 87.4016053486749 | 2.99839465132507 |
| 149 | 89.9 | 89.5550898080633 | 0.344910191936748 |
| 150 | 84.6 | 85.8839785608697 | -1.28397856086968 |
| 151 | 86.2 | 86.6602311803804 | -0.460231180380404 |
| 152 | 83.4 | 89.3531804863035 | -5.95318048630348 |
| 153 | 82.9 | 84.5202135669407 | -1.62021356694072 |
| 154 | 81.8 | 87.3893132973817 | -5.58931329738166 |
| 155 | 87.6 | 87.0244694959531 | 0.57553050404691 |
| 156 | 94.6 | 94.0567382921006 | 0.543261707899376 |
| 157 | 99.6 | 98.4067038275956 | 1.19329617240435 |
| 158 | 96.7 | 93.0631915504645 | 3.63680844953555 |
| 159 | 99.8 | 88.1924673267344 | 11.6075326732656 |
| 160 | 83.8 | 89.4065786031964 | -5.60657860319644 |
| 161 | 82.4 | 86.5560772138836 | -4.15607721388355 |
| 162 | 86.8 | 80.4338063900168 | 6.36619360998323 |
| 163 | 91 | 85.1704720606739 | 5.82952793932607 |
| 164 | 85.3 | 89.2909970753235 | -3.99099707532349 |
| 165 | 83.6 | 86.6941693216046 | -3.09416932160464 |
| 166 | 94 | 87.6819966589716 | 6.3180033410284 |
| 167 | 100.3 | 95.4082436513437 | 4.89175634865634 |
| 168 | 107.1 | 105.396398730664 | 1.70360126933639 |
| 169 | 100.7 | 111.099503936517 | -10.399503936517 |
| 170 | 95.5 | 100.469951476688 | -4.96995147668768 |
| 171 | 92.9 | 93.4551866696006 | -0.555186669600559 |
| 172 | 79.2 | 83.9579893130804 | -4.75798931308039 |
| 173 | 82 | 81.8998427669347 | 0.100157233065289 |
| 174 | 79.3 | 80.92308798005 | -1.62308798005 |
| 175 | 81.5 | 81.4269752283051 | 0.0730247716948753 |
| 176 | 76 | 79.9160971122756 | -3.91609711227555 |
| 177 | 73.1 | 77.610780569764 | -4.51078056976397 |
| 178 | 80.4 | 80.0432345126747 | 0.356765487325262 |
| 179 | 82.1 | 83.7816924238721 | -1.68169242387206 |
| 180 | 90.5 | 88.4443385672939 | 2.05566143270615 |
| 181 | 98.1 | 90.3329776127262 | 7.76702238727376 |
| 182 | 89.5 | 90.4740019218478 | -0.974001921847787 |
| 183 | 86.5 | 86.9219460673339 | -0.421946067333892 |
| 184 | 77 | 76.8956583978674 | 0.104341602132649 |
| 185 | 74.7 | 78.5763317880713 | -3.87633178807133 |
| 186 | 73.4 | 75.2179137283244 | -1.81791372832437 |
| 187 | 72.5 | 75.9879845580986 | -3.48798455809862 |
| 188 | 69.3 | 71.7391658464558 | -2.43916584645582 |
| 189 | 75.2 | 69.9653515874872 | 5.23464841251283 |
| 190 | 83.5 | 78.4802459055271 | 5.01975409447287 |
| 191 | 90.5 | 83.9227967175886 | 6.57720328241136 |
| 192 | 92.2 | 94.1332344389086 | -1.93323443890864 |
| 193 | 110.5 | 95.7771784714274 | 14.7228215285726 |
| 194 | 101.8 | 96.3404400927643 | 5.45955990723566 |
| 195 | 107.4 | 95.8465321147993 | 11.5534678852007 |
| 196 | 95.5 | 90.2410644983006 | 5.25893550169937 |
| 197 | 84.5 | 93.4036385161438 | -8.90363851614376 |
| 198 | 81.1 | 88.1045493395617 | -7.00454933956166 |
| 199 | 86.2 | 86.0447435845842 | 0.155256415415792 |
| 200 | 91.5 | 83.5506255984387 | 7.94937440156129 |
| 201 | 84.7 | 89.591441475169 | -4.89144147516897 |
| 202 | 92.2 | 94.150957443425 | -1.950957443425 |
| 203 | 99.2 | 97.0706130958503 | 2.1293869041497 |
| 204 | 104.5 | 103.076133999277 | 1.42386600072253 |
| 205 | 113 | 111.924896666138 | 1.07510333386209 |
| 206 | 100.4 | 102.595018792916 | -2.19501879291558 |
| 207 | 101 | 99.9634118063143 | 1.03658819368574 |
| 208 | 84.8 | 87.8482452934544 | -3.04824529345437 |
| 209 | 86.5 | 82.9087616598429 | 3.5912383401571 |
| 210 | 91.7 | 84.2088281328799 | 7.49117186712014 |
| 211 | 94.8 | 91.614928376471 | 3.18507162352897 |
| 212 | 95 | 92.8118949207452 | 2.18810507925477 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 213 | 92.1296732972403 | 85.7940954672563 | 98.4652511272244 |
| 214 | 100.562932745995 | 92.892435333149 | 108.233430158842 |
| 215 | 106.114207156893 | 97.2489843732066 | 114.97942994058 |
| 216 | 111.255860230273 | 101.256538639547 | 121.255181820999 |
| 217 | 119.883221397953 | 108.552457877397 | 131.21398491851 |
| 218 | 108.397414945544 | 97.1869919210837 | 119.607837970005 |
| 219 | 107.785634538691 | 95.9163938833138 | 119.654875194068 |
| 220 | 93.0015120458906 | 81.7143802400945 | 104.288643851687 |
| 221 | 91.4006058011972 | 79.5588912189527 | 103.242320383442 |
| 222 | 92.0721720747176 | 79.48619697896 | 104.658147170475 |
| 223 | 94.5838438768808 | 81.0758561147179 | 108.091831639044 |
| 224 | 93.9196730481715 | -18.5478532963533 | 206.387199392696 |
