| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.321801128930699 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.276650463253827 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 74.8 | 72.2597582313881 | 2.54024176861186 |
| 14 | 73.7 | 71.9420968639171 | 1.75790313608289 |
| 15 | 80.5 | 79.4304563687884 | 1.06954363121163 |
| 16 | 71.8 | 71.3836804899522 | 0.416319510047799 |
| 17 | 76.9 | 76.8613080496572 | 0.0386919503427805 |
| 18 | 79.9 | 80.406869718591 | -0.506869718591034 |
| 19 | 65.9 | 63.7077368167648 | 2.19226318323525 |
| 20 | 69.5 | 69.8866103723082 | -0.386610372308212 |
| 21 | 75.1 | 80.5553462243118 | -5.4553462243118 |
| 22 | 79.6 | 79.0239289164895 | 0.57607108351047 |
| 23 | 75.2 | 79.4208410484278 | -4.22084104842776 |
| 24 | 68 | 71.8710491005532 | -3.87104910055324 |
| 25 | 72.8 | 74.6574630825778 | -1.85746308257784 |
| 26 | 71.5 | 72.7643871885966 | -1.26438718859661 |
| 27 | 78.5 | 79.1075009259692 | -0.607500925969205 |
| 28 | 76.8 | 70.5153469767467 | 6.28465302325334 |
| 29 | 75.3 | 77.8758992051904 | -2.57589920519045 |
| 30 | 76.7 | 80.4842453296233 | -3.78424532962327 |
| 31 | 69.7 | 63.4116491700521 | 6.28835082994792 |
| 32 | 67.8 | 70.4690975880861 | -2.66909758808613 |
| 33 | 77.5 | 79.4186608677199 | -1.91866086771994 |
| 34 | 82.5 | 80.1704646911659 | 2.32953530883407 |
| 35 | 75.3 | 80.1973947207719 | -4.89739472077191 |
| 36 | 70.9 | 72.3704268988984 | -1.47042689889841 |
| 37 | 76 | 76.4217323965443 | -0.421732396544286 |
| 38 | 73.7 | 75.0489111319648 | -1.34891113196478 |
| 39 | 79.7 | 81.7143926807232 | -2.0143926807232 |
| 40 | 77.8 | 73.7159568629805 | 4.08404313701945 |
| 41 | 73.3 | 78.7606626278109 | -5.46066262781095 |
| 42 | 78.3 | 80.2196275973534 | -1.91962759735337 |
| 43 | 71.9 | 65.4106666589292 | 6.48933334107085 |
| 44 | 67 | 70.8867970414368 | -3.88679704143684 |
| 45 | 82 | 79.6559268074932 | 2.34407319250677 |
| 46 | 83.7 | 82.6188500753172 | 1.08114992468285 |
| 47 | 74.8 | 80.822134062906 | -6.02213406290605 |
| 48 | 80 | 73.184772674434 | 6.81522732556597 |
| 49 | 74.3 | 80.3308889000785 | -6.03088890007849 |
| 50 | 76.8 | 76.9287149467444 | -0.128714946744438 |
| 51 | 89 | 84.0848812817198 | 4.9151187182802 |
| 52 | 81.9 | 79.0452737333214 | 2.85472626667858 |
| 53 | 76.8 | 81.9690215078899 | -5.16902150788991 |
| 54 | 88.9 | 84.3863349287693 | 4.5136650712307 |
| 55 | 75.8 | 72.1124937841311 | 3.68750621586889 |
| 56 | 75.5 | 74.8044503814216 | 0.695549618578355 |
| 57 | 89.1 | 87.1792066018202 | 1.92079339817981 |
| 58 | 88 | 89.9102675371918 | -1.91026753719184 |
| 59 | 85.9 | 85.5099910623423 | 0.390008937657754 |
| 60 | 89.3 | 81.940944597619 | 7.35905540238102 |
| 61 | 82.9 | 87.0452765738319 | -4.14527657383185 |
| 62 | 81.2 | 85.286395853808 | -4.08639585380796 |
| 63 | 90.5 | 92.8199389316713 | -2.31993893167132 |
| 64 | 86.4 | 84.5963083084833 | 1.80369169151669 |
| 65 | 81.8 | 85.6669063124844 | -3.86690631248445 |
| 66 | 91.3 | 90.6624456784941 | 0.637554321505903 |
| 67 | 73.4 | 76.2920279052961 | -2.89202790529605 |
| 68 | 76.6 | 76.3174372081717 | 0.28256279182834 |
| 69 | 91 | 88.9872654923048 | 2.01273450769523 |
| 70 | 87 | 91.0446858420326 | -4.04468584203262 |
| 71 | 89.7 | 86.3558968466352 | 3.3441031533648 |
| 72 | 90.7 | 84.9515990197416 | 5.74840098025838 |
| 73 | 86.5 | 87.3705559081709 | -0.870555908170914 |
| 74 | 86.6 | 86.6463178212057 | -0.0463178212057471 |
| 75 | 98.8 | 96.1725255033835 | 2.62747449661654 |
| 76 | 84.4 | 89.9012203763562 | -5.50122037635623 |
| 77 | 91.4 | 87.5195722761118 | 3.88042772388822 |
| 78 | 95.7 | 96.2630833502516 | -0.563083350251603 |
| 79 | 78.5 | 79.9689975498091 | -1.46899754980909 |
| 80 | 81.7 | 81.1281263802567 | 0.571873619743329 |
| 81 | 94.3 | 95.0115487715278 | -0.711548771527845 |
| 82 | 98.5 | 95.0421018242061 | 3.45789817579393 |
| 83 | 95.4 | 93.9598561907283 | 1.44014380927173 |
| 84 | 91.7 | 92.2012556894387 | -0.501255689438651 |
| 85 | 92.8 | 91.3209239781273 | 1.47907602187269 |
| 86 | 90.5 | 91.4749250845366 | -0.974925084536636 |
| 87 | 102.2 | 101.708669726991 | 0.491330273008927 |
| 88 | 91.8 | 92.8039912934286 | -1.00399129342857 |
| 89 | 95 | 93.6715573261672 | 1.32844267383278 |
| 90 | 102 | 101.086143205901 | 0.913856794099374 |
| 91 | 88.9 | 84.1640113805659 | 4.73598861943414 |
| 92 | 89.6 | 87.8451003107746 | 1.7548996892254 |
| 93 | 97.9 | 102.996768587943 | -5.09676858794268 |
| 94 | 108.6 | 102.441936708599 | 6.15806329140136 |
| 95 | 100.8 | 101.621988263344 | -0.821988263343997 |
| 96 | 95.1 | 98.5681655555134 | -3.46816555551337 |
| 97 | 101 | 97.0647037089542 | 3.93529629104579 |
| 98 | 100.9 | 97.4751138765502 | 3.4248861234498 |
| 99 | 102.5 | 110.276569381762 | -7.77656938176209 |
| 100 | 105.4 | 97.8804008614394 | 7.51959913856057 |
| 101 | 98.4 | 102.04271401173 | -3.64271401172951 |
| 102 | 105.3 | 108.234881419576 | -2.93488141957566 |
| 103 | 96.5 | 89.8272555195831 | 6.67274448041685 |
| 104 | 88.1 | 93.652827897004 | -5.55282789700404 |
| 105 | 107.9 | 105.609096947931 | 2.29090305206947 |
| 106 | 107 | 109.690573991661 | -2.69057399166084 |
| 107 | 92.5 | 104.577325099438 | -12.0773250994379 |
| 108 | 95.7 | 97.4157467104505 | -1.71574671045046 |
| 109 | 85.2 | 97.8562208919612 | -12.6562208919612 |
| 110 | 85.5 | 92.8912764602071 | -7.39127646020708 |
| 111 | 94.7 | 99.2653090924408 | -4.56530909244078 |
| 112 | 86.2 | 91.3277799705165 | -5.1277799705165 |
| 113 | 88.8 | 89.3954235634477 | -0.59542356344771 |
| 114 | 93.4 | 95.9095296710546 | -2.50952967105457 |
| 115 | 83.4 | 81.1521996831517 | 2.24780031684833 |
| 116 | 82.9 | 81.3496382116131 | 1.55036178838687 |
| 117 | 96.7 | 95.5878168038854 | 1.11218319611463 |
| 118 | 96.2 | 98.1394312870046 | -1.93943128700457 |
| 119 | 92.8 | 92.0570397181661 | 0.74296028183393 |
| 120 | 92.8 | 91.0645275102806 | 1.73547248971941 |
| 121 | 90 | 90.5337569356724 | -0.533756935672358 |
| 122 | 95.4 | 90.4238414639707 | 4.97615853602932 |
| 123 | 108.3 | 101.586318410879 | 6.71368158912129 |
| 124 | 96.3 | 96.6716100996651 | -0.371610099665062 |
| 125 | 95 | 97.1440227157699 | -2.14402271576991 |
| 126 | 109 | 103.294722433683 | 5.70527756631682 |
| 127 | 92 | 90.5906062761643 | 1.40939372383568 |
| 128 | 92.3 | 90.2871693374493 | 2.0128306625507 |
| 129 | 107 | 106.020165546456 | 0.979834453543674 |
| 130 | 105.5 | 108.092311644979 | -2.59231164497925 |
| 131 | 105.4 | 101.756196009753 | 3.64380399024654 |
| 132 | 103.9 | 101.72913645181 | 2.17086354818993 |
| 133 | 99.2 | 100.706985850444 | -1.50698585044353 |
| 134 | 102.2 | 101.388450108441 | 0.811549891559281 |
| 135 | 121.5 | 112.402447522034 | 9.09755247796572 |
| 136 | 102.3 | 106.070207701463 | -3.77020770146291 |
| 137 | 110 | 105.110277270835 | 4.88972272916452 |
| 138 | 105.9 | 115.861365136686 | -9.96136513668642 |
| 139 | 91.9 | 96.3590938722319 | -4.45909387223186 |
| 140 | 100 | 94.2414575104677 | 5.75854248953232 |
| 141 | 111.7 | 111.748973045527 | -0.04897304552685 |
| 142 | 104.9 | 112.853676834864 | -7.9536768348642 |
| 143 | 103.3 | 105.80144838464 | -2.50144838464037 |
| 144 | 101.8 | 103.494005996269 | -1.69400599626906 |
| 145 | 100.8 | 100.533726306117 | 0.266273693882866 |
| 146 | 104.2 | 102.229363000413 | 1.9706369995869 |
| 147 | 116.5 | 115.252183440271 | 1.24781655972859 |
| 148 | 97.9 | 104.112927296363 | -6.21292729636288 |
| 149 | 100.7 | 103.947552259074 | -3.24755225907421 |
| 150 | 107 | 108.977358863402 | -1.97735886340165 |
| 151 | 96.3 | 93.4072609101028 | 2.89273908989716 |
| 152 | 96 | 95.5541998516682 | 0.445800148331784 |
| 153 | 104.5 | 110.045749954327 | -5.54574995432706 |
| 154 | 107.4 | 107.885756471235 | -0.485756471234552 |
| 155 | 102.4 | 104.293267489394 | -1.89326748939419 |
| 156 | 94.9 | 102.344635733429 | -7.44463573342875 |
| 157 | 98.8 | 97.9625713865179 | 0.837428613482132 |
| 158 | 96.8 | 100.119917222178 | -3.31991722217774 |
| 159 | 108.2 | 110.820703371386 | -2.62070337138552 |
| 160 | 103.8 | 97.6898016235412 | 6.11019837645884 |
| 161 | 102.3 | 102.013471623904 | 0.286528376096314 |
| 162 | 107.2 | 108.405693789236 | -1.20569378923631 |
| 163 | 102 | 93.9860000965464 | 8.01399990345364 |
| 164 | 92.6 | 97.3303399703737 | -4.73033997037368 |
| 165 | 105.2 | 109.018501398613 | -3.81850139861285 |
| 166 | 113 | 108.364985868926 | 4.63501413107439 |
| 167 | 105.6 | 106.071756489203 | -0.471756489203372 |
| 168 | 101.6 | 103.437695373852 | -1.83769537385177 |
| 169 | 101.7 | 102.382020024792 | -0.682020024791797 |
| 170 | 102.7 | 103.294759927299 | -0.594759927299464 |
| 171 | 109 | 115.549513957087 | -6.5495139570874 |
| 172 | 105.5 | 102.373639296387 | 3.1263607036134 |
| 173 | 103.3 | 104.669192781787 | -1.36919278178738 |
| 174 | 108.6 | 110.363420286935 | -1.76342028693544 |
| 175 | 98.2 | 97.2193073036322 | 0.980692696367839 |
| 176 | 90 | 95.9054651885119 | -5.90546518851187 |
| 177 | 112.4 | 107.252358239747 | 5.14764176025294 |
| 178 | 111.9 | 111.089936222882 | 0.810063777118032 |
| 179 | 102.1 | 106.579126276948 | -4.47912627694826 |
| 180 | 102.4 | 102.417082485854 | -0.0170824858535497 |
| 181 | 101.7 | 102.164309828896 | -0.464309828895509 |
| 182 | 98.7 | 103.163108460079 | -4.46310846007908 |
| 183 | 114 | 112.898025069404 | 1.10197493059596 |
| 184 | 105.1 | 103.905627953132 | 1.19437204686805 |
| 185 | 98.3 | 104.735374846909 | -6.43537484690923 |
| 186 | 110 | 108.651344401377 | 1.34865559862278 |
| 187 | 96.5 | 97.0657683709676 | -0.565768370967646 |
| 188 | 92.2 | 93.9673029387061 | -1.76730293870605 |
| 189 | 112 | 108.785961766721 | 3.21403823327877 |
| 190 | 111.4 | 111.186591661473 | 0.21340833852669 |
| 191 | 107.5 | 105.493343007125 | 2.00665699287515 |
| 192 | 103.4 | 104.217251679716 | -0.817251679715582 |
| 193 | 103.5 | 103.613604906598 | -0.113604906598084 |
| 194 | 107.4 | 103.964759268081 | 3.43524073191894 |
| 195 | 117.6 | 117.777700122962 | -0.177700122962221 |
| 196 | 110.2 | 108.028537264062 | 2.17146273593804 |
| 197 | 104.3 | 107.664378779958 | -3.36437877995823 |
| 198 | 115.9 | 114.38846770418 | 1.51153229582015 |
| 199 | 98.9 | 101.855156274713 | -2.95515627471347 |
| 200 | 101.9 | 97.6149531762783 | 4.28504682372171 |
| 201 | 113.5 | 116.329483670179 | -2.82948367017948 |
| 202 | 109.5 | 116.244493095327 | -6.74449309532717 |
| 203 | 110 | 108.503429895638 | 1.49657010436187 |
| 204 | 114.2 | 106.469427696599 | 7.73057230340058 |
| 205 | 106.9 | 108.72385333273 | -1.82385333272967 |
| 206 | 109.2 | 109.21721637609 | -0.0172163760903885 |
| 207 | 124.2 | 121.628549248567 | 2.57145075143319 |
| 208 | 104.7 | 112.815253987566 | -8.11525398756594 |
| 209 | 111.9 | 108.072269842239 | 3.827730157761 |
| 210 | 119 | 118.290570656767 | 0.709429343233097 |
| 211 | 102.9 | 104.243343392505 | -1.34334339250466 |
| 212 | 106.3 | 101.792845700734 | 4.50715429926646 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 213 | 119.781374588661 | 115.942007572758 | 123.620741604565 |
| 214 | 119.837977456834 | 115.299465486801 | 124.376489426867 |
| 215 | 115.542915051163 | 110.483495691985 | 120.602334410341 |
| 216 | 114.067811638109 | 108.502601491968 | 119.633021784251 |
| 217 | 111.963310380404 | 105.96861525876 | 117.958005502049 |
| 218 | 113.426248961122 | 106.915562216296 | 119.936935705947 |
| 219 | 126.811281316606 | 119.298719909494 | 134.323842723717 |
| 220 | 114.752145573045 | 107.437495749829 | 122.06679539626 |
| 221 | 114.842761632459 | 107.146624859548 | 122.538898405369 |
| 222 | 123.598381394363 | 115.066576549984 | 132.130186238741 |
| 223 | 108.314056873657 | 100.339582494334 | 116.288531252979 |
| 224 | 107.326462333798 | 93.589648455474 | 121.063276212122 |
