| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.158806071446012 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 9081 | 9700 | -619 |
| 3 | 9084 | 9601.69904177492 | -517.699041774918 |
| 4 | 9743 | 9519.48529075928 | 223.514709240721 |
| 5 | 8587 | 9554.9807836442 | -967.980783644196 |
| 6 | 9731 | 9401.25955815843 | 329.740441841572 |
| 7 | 9563 | 9453.62434232416 | 109.375657675839 |
| 8 | 9998 | 9470.99386083148 | 527.006139168516 |
| 9 | 9437 | 9554.68563542077 | -117.685635420767 |
| 10 | 10038 | 9535.99644199397 | 502.003558006032 |
| 11 | 9918 | 9615.71765489283 | 302.282345107174 |
| 12 | 9252 | 9663.72192658678 | -411.721926586784 |
| 13 | 9737 | 9598.33798489735 | 138.662015102645 |
| 14 | 9035 | 9620.35835477459 | -585.358354774593 |
| 15 | 9133 | 9527.39989406474 | -394.39989406474 |
| 16 | 9487 | 9464.7667963096 | 22.2332036904045 |
| 17 | 8700 | 9468.29756404333 | -768.297564043327 |
| 18 | 9627 | 9346.28724619607 | 280.712753803935 |
| 19 | 8947 | 9390.86613583246 | -443.866135832459 |
| 20 | 9283 | 9320.37749855298 | -37.3774985529835 |
| 21 | 8829 | 9314.44172484731 | -485.441724847306 |
| 22 | 9947 | 9237.35063160833 | 709.649368391671 |
| 23 | 9628 | 9350.04725990675 | 277.952740093246 |
| 24 | 9318 | 9394.18784260862 | -76.1878426086168 |
| 25 | 9605 | 9382.088750632 | 222.911249368004 |
| 26 | 8640 | 9417.48841042525 | -777.488410425251 |
| 27 | 9214 | 9294.01853037081 | -80.0185303708113 |
| 28 | 9567 | 9281.31110191974 | 285.688898080261 |
| 29 | 8547 | 9326.6802334796 | -779.680233479605 |
| 30 | 9185 | 9202.8622786166 | -17.8622786165997 |
| 31 | 9470 | 9200.02564032242 | 269.974359677577 |
| 32 | 9123 | 9242.89920777397 | -119.899207773971 |
| 33 | 9278 | 9223.8584856179 | 54.1415143821014 |
| 34 | 10170 | 9232.45648681906 | 937.543513180943 |
| 35 | 9434 | 9381.34408895702 | 52.6559110429844 |
| 36 | 9655 | 9389.70616732816 | 265.293832671838 |
| 37 | 9429 | 9431.83643867363 | -2.83643867363207 |
| 38 | 8739 | 9431.38599499097 | -692.385994990975 |
| 39 | 9552 | 9321.43089520222 | 230.56910479778 |
| 40 | 9687 | 9358.04666893198 | 328.95333106802 |
| 41 | 9019 | 9410.28645512797 | -391.286455127971 |
| 42 | 9672 | 9348.14779037906 | 323.852209620938 |
| 43 | 9206 | 9399.57748751807 | -193.577487518074 |
| 44 | 9069 | 9368.83620720494 | -299.836207204939 |
| 45 | 9788 | 9321.22039706145 | 466.77960293855 |
| 46 | 10312 | 9395.34783203525 | 916.65216796475 |
| 47 | 10105 | 9540.9177617122 | 564.082238287798 |
| 48 | 9863 | 9630.49744594716 | 232.502554052839 |
| 49 | 9656 | 9667.42026315746 | -11.4202631574572 |
| 50 | 9295 | 9665.60665603054 | -370.606656030543 |
| 51 | 9946 | 9606.75206893459 | 339.247931065411 |
| 52 | 9701 | 9660.62670011327 | 40.3732998867254 |
| 53 | 9049 | 9667.0382252596 | -618.038225259597 |
| 54 | 10190 | 9568.89000270266 | 621.109997297344 |
| 55 | 9706 | 9667.52604130929 | 38.4739586907108 |
| 56 | 9765 | 9673.63593954194 | 91.3640604580632 |
| 57 | 9893 | 9688.14510705464 | 204.854892945363 |
| 58 | 9994 | 9720.67730781978 | 273.322692180216 |
| 59 | 10433 | 9764.08261080197 | 668.917389198028 |
| 60 | 10073 | 9870.31075350243 | 202.689246497566 |
| 61 | 10112 | 9902.49903646306 | 209.500963536935 |
| 62 | 9266 | 9935.76906144652 | -669.769061446519 |
| 63 | 9820 | 9829.40566802211 | -9.4056680221147 |
| 64 | 10097 | 9827.9119908342 | 269.088009165802 |
| 65 | 9115 | 9870.64480044305 | -755.644800443048 |
| 66 | 10411 | 9750.64381827608 | 660.356181723919 |
| 67 | 9678 | 9855.51238925075 | -177.512389250745 |
| 68 | 10408 | 9827.32234408084 | 580.67765591916 |
| 69 | 10153 | 9919.53748139384 | 233.462518606158 |
| 70 | 10368 | 9956.61274680358 | 411.387253196423 |
| 71 | 10581 | 10021.9435403267 | 559.056459673333 |
| 72 | 10597 | 10110.7251004039 | 486.274899596096 |
| 73 | 10680 | 10187.9485068516 | 492.051493148436 |
| 74 | 9738 | 10266.0892714276 | -528.089271427612 |
| 75 | 9556 | 10182.2254888594 | -626.225488859407 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 76 | 10082.7770791343 | 9200.11000863413 | 10965.4441496344 |
| 77 | 10082.7770791343 | 9189.0491583456 | 10976.504999923 |
| 78 | 10082.7770791343 | 9178.12353470458 | 10987.430623564 |
| 79 | 10082.7770791343 | 9167.32829602232 | 10998.2258622463 |
| 80 | 10082.7770791343 | 9156.6588828153 | 11008.8952754533 |
| 81 | 10082.7770791343 | 9146.1109953002 | 11019.4431629684 |
| 82 | 10082.7770791343 | 9135.68057314504 | 11029.8735851235 |
| 83 | 10082.7770791343 | 9125.36377720612 | 11040.1903810625 |
| 84 | 10082.7770791343 | 9115.15697301777 | 11050.3971852508 |
| 85 | 10082.7770791343 | 9105.05671583356 | 11060.497442435 |
| 86 | 10082.7770791343 | 9095.05973704453 | 11070.494421224 |
| 87 | 10082.7770791343 | 9085.16293182241 | 11080.3912264462 |
