| ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection | |||||||
| Iteration | ar1 | ar2 | ar3 | ma1 | sar1 | sar2 | sma1 |
| Estimates ( 1 ) | 1.5803 | -0.4597 | -0.14 | -0.4857 | -0.1899 | -0.1295 | -0.5144 |
| (p-val) | (0 ) | (0.0996 ) | (0.1051 ) | (0.0193 ) | (0.1049 ) | (0.1429 ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 2 ) | 1.5227 | -0.3747 | -0.1689 | -0.4366 | -0.0675 | 0 | -0.6341 |
| (p-val) | (0 ) | (0.2188 ) | (0.0552 ) | (0.0671 ) | (0.395 ) | (NA ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 3 ) | 1.5169 | -0.3651 | -0.1732 | -0.4333 | 0 | 0 | -0.6704 |
| (p-val) | (0 ) | (0.2047 ) | (0.0404 ) | (0.0539 ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 4 ) | 1.2234 | 0 | -0.2521 | -0.1268 | 0 | 0 | -1.4762 |
| (p-val) | (0 ) | (NA ) | (0 ) | (0.0993 ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 5 ) | 1.1736 | 0 | -0.2043 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.6847 |
| (p-val) | (0 ) | (NA ) | (0 ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 6 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 7 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 8 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 9 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 10 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 11 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 12 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 13 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimated ARIMA Residuals |
| Value |
| 0.220445564160776 |
| 9.77276362087239 |
| 2.65881741658598 |
| 5.37702371779084 |
| 9.35486834204682 |
| 37.1848686140585 |
| 2.05202925897162 |
| 19.5431243744385 |
| -12.4030802273215 |
| -6.22214474740261 |
| 37.1897503258625 |
| -20.9835143866943 |
| 0.273155523503156 |
| 23.4775722041247 |
| -15.3881026053931 |
| -17.0239595235642 |
| -17.7748540039828 |
| -7.90861111310891 |
| 6.07131617054369 |
| -18.5836107084496 |
| -16.3812715088681 |
| 20.4091283553636 |
| -16.0331973888232 |
| 19.8743636233528 |
| -1.67307900874192 |
| -44.0557610055126 |
| -24.18568172097 |
| 16.112805760038 |
| 5.52562833541788 |
| 0.392499849758441 |
| -2.06242560043495 |
| -8.71463482844095 |
| 12.4003099780513 |
| 16.970588699044 |
| -1.29409473297927 |
| -0.106363690278519 |
| -24.0512734633956 |
| -11.5048852349291 |
| -1.30423596262574 |
| -3.4237490876011 |
| 14.6758590135037 |
| 7.46595129648291 |
| -13.528712322418 |
| 0.108583794563991 |
| 15.4261368548384 |
| -9.50832226694175 |
| -8.73450247446301 |
| -3.3658672140446 |
| -3.20034207442553 |
| 1.55275299883996 |
| -21.3816331373525 |
| 10.1322149672125 |
| 18.6842204500702 |
| -10.9386948692351 |
| -13.9286716433072 |
| -2.33217496427245 |
| 9.30545513949093 |
| 14.5513802892442 |
| 5.64016785249831 |
| 13.2452328186425 |
| 18.2914240233465 |
| 34.0326273019411 |
| 15.3956927938448 |
| 6.9606838212028 |
| -4.97241506901707 |
| -3.86670218370455 |
| -14.9653558534753 |
| 5.16914558713952 |
| 12.843415262573 |
| 4.58063902448694 |
| -21.543681955515 |
| 1.09610268901072 |
| -4.94459270945884 |
| -2.20811656812797 |
| -11.029990590171 |
| -2.81816343614585 |
| 12.5037348054085 |
| -16.544017792077 |
| 2.31653087327587 |
| -10.1936167253401 |
| 11.4018148857769 |
| -6.79033987285435 |
| 13.8512751598516 |
| 2.61918354141497 |
| -1.46174335839373 |
| -19.2873349301315 |
| -1.94855543249523 |
| 17.6558126777302 |
| -13.2302025349665 |
| 22.739376516806 |
| 12.7569766049658 |
| -15.0776156240649 |
| -22.8102721107646 |
| -2.2667202754561 |
| 7.47386374347814 |
| 20.6047230877434 |
| -0.934909232299263 |
| -11.7370010713429 |
| -12.1521619737029 |
| -6.32486236786484 |
| 8.11658503716214 |
| 13.2075875434867 |
| 14.034122149444 |
| -16.5115807187649 |
| -3.3610915202745 |
| 9.86747831963229 |
| 10.3711997798259 |
| 20.4007531165533 |
| 5.87678975376519 |
| 28.78904184428 |
| 38.7717615800669 |
| 2.87819761983675 |
| -0.367979459608665 |
| -10.2459516950077 |
| 6.55752882427988 |
| 9.45012163995842 |
| -8.04679778627576 |
| -25.4395218020686 |
| -0.356117089278556 |
| -13.4954062554202 |
| 22.401693936487 |
| -2.71824562617096 |
| -11.3681565241785 |
| -13.6640974068048 |
| -29.5690308472782 |
| 5.06110763124969 |
| 18.3009546169202 |
| 0.886586115198192 |
| 6.52338490980986 |
| 5.60265209996857 |
| 13.5175341678162 |
| 4.00243167965461 |
| -22.6051783385565 |
| -8.03049418711603 |
| -19.709435270469 |
| 38.0964960375161 |
| -9.14860171555994 |
| -9.53078965379023 |
| 30.6278053339755 |
| -9.83808970475643 |
| 5.53658366080296 |
| -11.4056205759096 |
| 22.7784333522557 |
| 7.7178645351086 |
| 24.2273432657049 |
| 8.52583838049114 |
| 13.0646271182651 |
| -15.8722163007425 |
| -8.34330404075553 |
| 4.84258537818521 |
| 13.98468915858 |
| -7.26287428807862 |
| -14.1488875582179 |
| -2.21766619379582 |
| -2.98044324759511 |
| -13.4341300346537 |
| -0.581034148983013 |
| -3.62573257451642 |
| -13.0746581561481 |
| 1.83762206008782 |
| 5.54470025814351 |
| 20.8241723196851 |
| -21.6123909337795 |
| -12.3689920100369 |
| 30.4965543067553 |
| -4.76862468570779 |
| -16.3920207782879 |
| 16.4282256145473 |
| -8.26333456474523 |
| 9.49794120987905 |
| 14.8412902308251 |
| -24.727497352542 |
| -0.489951386160874 |
| 9.23529602200855 |
| 9.71659784097864 |
| -9.76618854565301 |
| -11.2361665454918 |
| 6.67378939372547 |
| 5.05875308340238 |
| 7.37417630449214 |
| -14.8606325118605 |
| -1.71207067674077 |
| -7.39786670911114 |
| 0.710690702336643 |
| 7.03018330459082 |
| -14.8897803288287 |
| 28.2442407054676 |
| -29.7666360232531 |
| 6.98074807201072 |
| 7.46237703278201 |
| -0.181397745945011 |
| -19.283831112923 |
| 2.38088345683003 |
| -10.606849211694 |
| 12.8099177668268 |
| -15.4138762599699 |
| 13.5205974906288 |
| -7.08862569218617 |
| 9.72689269254281 |
| -10.9931755594518 |
| -5.23239583861232 |
| 0.567070888939303 |
| -3.2117453067308 |
| -8.65073529793351 |
| -11.4326716226869 |
| -12.9419611964837 |
| -13.6422865872329 |
| 16.1899644838636 |
| 7.77063826290688 |
| 11.498605455884 |
| -0.0628819830758158 |
| -8.44214867873527 |
| -2.75462857735059 |
| -1.91303286071167 |
| 2.62575322506801 |
| -11.8376915888936 |
| 2.98385895887047 |
| -7.13883747511586 |
| -2.18754927244302 |
| 1.1067051806253 |
| 1.07463288122661 |
| -8.68486245828754 |
| 27.4564413183675 |
| 7.13759740759832 |
| -14.2532618546502 |
| 14.2757886699805 |
| 7.65519440366796 |
| -23.6198333974829 |
| -16.3876510399247 |
| -9.16882355039164 |
| 17.5246641896958 |
| -6.13109992754179 |
| -11.243870452617 |
| -1.73688560600426 |
| 30.5811390236858 |
| 2.30914323982138 |
| -21.4705549914077 |
| 2.52989916303358 |
| -2.3401007021944 |
| -5.37913099330464 |
| -8.03158205031301 |
| -1.82330787459655 |
| -1.32296792279216 |
| 6.85358371755521 |
| 8.91825025719926 |
| -9.79486284579074 |
| 1.60484018060113 |
| 16.2885787738485 |
| -3.20687068341479 |
| 14.9645204544947 |
| -7.23753073927889 |
| -20.9586459203402 |
| 1.41168500520332 |
| 23.9204316797845 |
| 19.5787536607454 |
| 5.41768306655436 |
| 1.91326812743988 |
| -2.55430606643703 |
| 15.2503444816354 |
| 14.0442076095883 |
| -1.88354333503873 |
| 10.5047743364166 |
| 3.39536520481959 |
| 20.8183843924356 |
| 7.05907645190057 |
| 10.7432847754434 |
| -9.80491069056017 |
| -3.83696014210787 |
| -7.50555799797556 |
| -0.92383868270159 |
| 6.97370639202535 |
| 16.100878516372 |
| 5.82261179441952 |
| -10.5375433534965 |
| -10.2812782518324 |
| 15.1877703847817 |
| 1.03759526830433 |
| 9.46066995795527 |
| -7.58018322974426 |
| 3.48553270966322 |
| -6.86130893484683 |
| -4.99930895524326 |
| 4.66119838320106 |
| 5.61895079052083 |
| 1.61199094162315 |
| -3.9497423496325 |
| -0.932841265397569 |
| -21.3342561553982 |
| -0.138917284999249 |
| 0.282063099277865 |
| 10.2819327586919 |
| -6.20563894601413 |
| 3.91305104175523 |
| -5.56093954855683 |
| -3.18043677938583 |
| -0.148124231104112 |
| -1.05088696153356 |
| 7.55320095451344 |
| -17.0119613397085 |
| 16.7540155947612 |
| 8.91727479464968 |
| 16.6238904897129 |
| -2.15160990665985 |
| -14.337467368939 |
| -4.48215043958624 |
| 13.2130885342663 |
| 11.6633799521187 |
| 7.74515197465697 |
| -6.80508378428908 |
| 27.5900484064192 |
| 4.28724604325376 |
| 29.1061462964127 |
| 29.7357753728637 |
| 81.2952056504411 |
| -12.9624317329623 |
| 5.31805683908131 |
| -7.25368182399262 |
| 6.57693395445942 |
| -3.14020139234629 |
| -0.569306516362782 |
| 0.0950116985754814 |
| -2.04869656602737 |
| 7.40354113198303 |
| -9.29946476522267 |
| 1.7344738229502 |
| -0.346437795798894 |
| -7.60254835997401 |
| -11.2724732538636 |
| -0.784417648597373 |
| -12.0131118805596 |
| 28.9376548456039 |
| 20.6046329984519 |
| 7.23995113037861 |
| -18.6935935703278 |
| 5.29148977750933 |
| 12.1968244170342 |
| -5.39971978261116 |
| -15.8346326331352 |
| 22.7155726583777 |
| -11.2567962091538 |
| -30.9409764523665 |
| 5.62610780950759 |
| 20.8739631916375 |
| -17.7239783863983 |
| 12.7092942192789 |
| -8.19972314633813 |
| 0.643548776150282 |
| -1.77944073451709 |
| -30.2792778205887 |
| 5.66665433575145 |
| -9.31841784025785 |
| 10.3187255854837 |
| -5.28385045975626 |
| 8.31773330738201 |
| -22.512890767483 |
| 27.6434951889195 |
| -12.485463427997 |
| -2.37738602870608 |
| -6.2637576788762 |
| -1.66527239800187 |
| 17.4211529039477 |
