| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 1 |
| gamma | 0 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 37702 | 41487.9961256583 | -3785.99612565827 |
| 14 | 30364 | 26985.9661303211 | 3378.03386967886 |
| 15 | 32609 | 32727.9358210002 | -118.935821000206 |
| 16 | 30212 | 30145.8777182379 | 66.1222817621128 |
| 17 | 29965 | 29887.9020499618 | 77.0979500382091 |
| 18 | 28352 | 28391.3748481016 | -39.3748481016046 |
| 19 | 25814 | 22414.0196224931 | 3399.9803775069 |
| 20 | 22414 | 26784.6171673481 | -4370.61716734807 |
| 21 | 20506 | 21340.5520439118 | -834.552043911786 |
| 22 | 28806 | 23717.1159273104 | 5088.88407268965 |
| 23 | 22228 | 25561.4177256393 | -3333.41772563932 |
| 24 | 13971 | 12837.671960038 | 1133.32803996199 |
| 25 | 36845 | 40601.5340145322 | -3756.53401453224 |
| 26 | 35338 | 27298.9372480281 | 8039.06275197186 |
| 27 | 35022 | 44169.1342060279 | -9147.13420602795 |
| 28 | 34777 | 29660.5384748421 | 5116.4615251579 |
| 29 | 26887 | 36705.4820559147 | -9818.4820559147 |
| 30 | 23970 | 18314.5307848454 | 5655.46921515461 |
| 31 | 22780 | 17792.0531868026 | 4987.94681319737 |
| 32 | 17351 | 24394.9811555839 | -7043.98115558389 |
| 33 | 21382 | 13941.302066818 | 7440.69793318201 |
| 34 | 24561 | 32526.7733061008 | -7965.77330610083 |
| 35 | 17409 | 17693.0108338551 | -284.01083385514 |
| 36 | 11514 | 9048.62009766836 | 2465.37990233164 |
| 37 | 31514 | 35051.2864794491 | -3537.28647944907 |
| 38 | 27071 | 24344.484559837 | 2726.51544016304 |
| 39 | 29462 | 30993.2773260638 | -1531.27732606379 |
| 40 | 26105 | 27597.7751894846 | -1492.7751894846 |
| 41 | 22397 | 24647.8615532109 | -2250.86155321087 |
| 42 | 23843 | 17930.7867942609 | 5912.21320573911 |
| 43 | 21705 | 20938.1454020331 | 766.854597966936 |
| 44 | 18089 | 22518.2329109566 | -4429.23291095655 |
| 45 | 20764 | 16418.6787760518 | 4345.3212239482 |
| 46 | 25316 | 29981.5307429842 | -4665.5307429842 |
| 47 | 17704 | 19578.8057375386 | -1874.80573753865 |
| 48 | 15548 | 9031.5631155527 | 6516.4368844473 |
| 49 | 28029 | 57475.3424653159 | -29446.3424653159 |
| 50 | 29383 | 9524.39222229387 | 19858.6077777061 |
| 51 | 36438 | 38979.699162503 | -2541.69916250305 |
| 52 | 32034 | 38213.6173641055 | -6179.61736410549 |
| 53 | 22679 | 29985.4261796034 | -7306.42617960342 |
| 54 | 24319 | 12927.1553973278 | 11391.8446026722 |
| 55 | 18004 | 21479.2311892206 | -3475.23118922059 |
| 56 | 17537 | 15397.1394332197 | 2139.8605667803 |
| 57 | 20366 | 18719.161823632 | 1646.83817636797 |
| 58 | 22782 | 29672.6780384295 | -6890.67803842952 |
| 59 | 19169 | 15850.8961244703 | 3318.10387552967 |
| 60 | 13807 | 12106.8166832106 | 1700.18331678943 |
| 61 | 29743 | 45014.8164697156 | -15271.8164697156 |
| 62 | 25591 | 16257.9261430452 | 9333.07385695475 |
| 63 | 29096 | 29340.4209292218 | -244.420929221818 |
| 64 | 26482 | 28394.0018115126 | -1912.00181151256 |
| 65 | 22405 | 25728.3604886563 | -3323.36048865629 |
| 66 | 27044 | 17593.8675474604 | 9450.13245253962 |
| 67 | 17970 | 25984.3096810551 | -8014.30968105509 |
| 68 | 18730 | 13365.9769347333 | 5364.02306526672 |
| 69 | 19684 | 21153.1133629432 | -1469.11336294321 |
| 70 | 19785 | 26373.6035376064 | -6588.60353760635 |
| 71 | 18479 | 11664.1606321177 | 6814.83936788228 |
| 72 | 10698 | 12765.8235286875 | -2067.82352868753 |
| 73 | 31956 | 28541.1294322283 | 3414.87056777168 |
| 74 | 29506 | 26919.6386551179 | 2586.36134488209 |
| 75 | 34506 | 35849.4789327642 | -1343.47893276417 |
| 76 | 27165 | 34513.3508750869 | -7348.35087508686 |
| 77 | 26736 | 22126.4181600186 | 4609.58183998139 |
| 78 | 23691 | 25137.1476304567 | -1446.14763045668 |
| 79 | 18157 | 17464.253448161 | 692.746551839035 |
| 80 | 17328 | 16131.0595314059 | 1196.94046859407 |
| 81 | 18205 | 18157.193264769 | 47.8067352310027 |
| 82 | 20995 | 24385.0774564696 | -3390.07745646963 |
| 83 | 17382 | 15200.5198051526 | 2181.48019484744 |
| 84 | 9367 | 10808.7908846448 | -1441.79088464483 |
| 85 | 31124 | 22889.4206634265 | 8234.5793365735 |
| 86 | 26551 | 28623.8134118605 | -2072.81341186048 |
| 87 | 30651 | 30211.7736790038 | 439.22632099616 |
| 88 | 25859 | 30317.5117468502 | -4458.51174685019 |
| 89 | 25100 | 23072.9965897536 | 2027.00341024635 |
| 90 | 25778 | 23266.3268667986 | 2511.67313320136 |
| 91 | 20418 | 21977.5195299962 | -1559.51952999621 |
| 92 | 18688 | 18763.4129777217 | -75.4129777216986 |
| 93 | 20424 | 18811.5758631851 | 1612.42413681493 |
| 94 | 24776 | 28331.3280990513 | -3555.32809905126 |
| 95 | 19814 | 19052.9011431531 | 761.098856846937 |
| 96 | 12738 | 11896.906659231 | 841.093340768961 |
| 97 | 31566 | 37808.6848699408 | -6242.68486994076 |
| 98 | 30111 | 21631.0465134341 | 8479.95348656592 |
| 99 | 30019 | 37488.1358370153 | -7469.1358370153 |
| 100 | 31934 | 25601.573248766 | 6332.426751234 |
| 101 | 25826 | 35663.8163727304 | -9837.81637273038 |
| 102 | 26835 | 18965.0591992382 | 7869.94080076176 |
| 103 | 20205 | 23104.6686210557 | -2899.6686210557 |
| 104 | 17789 | 17609.655864695 | 179.344135304989 |
| 105 | 20520 | 17197.4400112226 | 3322.55998877743 |
| 106 | 22518 | 29742.4407326765 | -7224.44073267652 |
| 107 | 15572 | 15256.8323835081 | 315.167616491928 |
| 108 | 11509 | 7817.87427377746 | 3691.12572622254 |
| 109 | 25447 | 38233.1770809934 | -12786.1770809934 |
| 110 | 24090 | 14603.7967177617 | 9486.2032822383 |
| 111 | 27786 | 29825.2075899902 | -2039.20758999023 |
| 112 | 26195 | 27463.0014345558 | -1268.00143455579 |
| 113 | 20516 | 26360.0760125685 | -5844.07601256846 |
| 114 | 22759 | 14293.6318910283 | 8465.3681089717 |
| 115 | 19028 | 20629.239528044 | -1601.23952804403 |
| 116 | 16971 | 18399.4112133541 | -1428.41121335415 |
| 117 | 20036 | 16635.198977721 | 3400.80102227902 |
| 118 | 22485 | 29556.8562177491 | -7071.85621774909 |
| 119 | 18730 | 15712.1207918091 | 3017.87920819086 |
| 120 | 14538 | 11716.5270212753 | 2821.47297872474 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 49938.8861707181 | 37811.3720798114 | 62066.4002616249 |
| 122 | 47050.4085011136 | 24092.0787898346 | 70008.7382123925 |
| 123 | 58046.0567468415 | 15420.1830365067 | 100671.930457176 |
| 124 | 60632.5866213685 | 1707.4597081531 | 119557.713534584 |
| 125 | 66753.6356380269 | -13344.3217216522 | 146851.592997706 |
| 126 | 69477.4872993832 | -29128.3404435172 | 168083.315042284 |
| 127 | 59902.5221855174 | -38063.2768795174 | 157868.321250552 |
| 128 | 59492.040879766 | -50808.9184176144 | 169793.000177146 |
| 129 | 64584.5287470717 | -69499.3606420824 | 198668.418136226 |
| 130 | 89074.7858480441 | -115565.007657598 | 293714.579353686 |
| 131 | 77805.1252187176 | -117880.470648379 | 273490.721085814 |
| 132 | 50847.8472650804 | -87718.127610297 | 189413.822140458 |
