| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.0694418538538814 |
| beta | 0.0955451383637313 |
| gamma | 0.274997599946921 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 15028 | 14321.6838979972 | 706.316102002787 |
| 14 | 17977 | 17069.4160535447 | 907.583946455306 |
| 15 | 20008 | 19050.8439326332 | 957.156067366803 |
| 16 | 21354 | 20594.1425361458 | 759.85746385418 |
| 17 | 19498 | 19004.128834788 | 493.871165211971 |
| 18 | 22125 | 21757.4644496887 | 367.535550311321 |
| 19 | 25817 | 24290.9120299625 | 1526.0879700375 |
| 20 | 28779 | 25468.2839246746 | 3310.71607532535 |
| 21 | 20960 | 23042.1510861182 | -2082.15108611822 |
| 22 | 22254 | 24523.2293633099 | -2269.2293633099 |
| 23 | 27392 | 28844.5021876792 | -1452.50218767915 |
| 24 | 29945 | 31899.8676637324 | -1954.86766373242 |
| 25 | 16933 | 16195.4241625049 | 737.575837495142 |
| 26 | 17892 | 19314.2164644429 | -1422.21646444291 |
| 27 | 20533 | 21332.8072665367 | -799.807266536678 |
| 28 | 23569 | 22812.419292281 | 756.580707718975 |
| 29 | 22417 | 20958.6530235091 | 1458.34697649086 |
| 30 | 22084 | 23985.8132815679 | -1901.81328156789 |
| 31 | 26580 | 26864.8774314884 | -284.877431488352 |
| 32 | 27454 | 28432.6130081043 | -978.613008104294 |
| 33 | 24081 | 23975.6887334772 | 105.311266522775 |
| 34 | 23451 | 25609.0416780825 | -2158.04167808247 |
| 35 | 28991 | 30404.3283513062 | -1413.3283513062 |
| 36 | 31386 | 33461.1532316215 | -2075.15323162147 |
| 37 | 16896 | 17419.810174207 | -523.810174207032 |
| 38 | 20045 | 19987.1231805566 | 57.876819443376 |
| 39 | 23471 | 22355.3364171955 | 1115.66358280452 |
| 40 | 21747 | 24450.3230768301 | -2703.32307683013 |
| 41 | 25621 | 22387.3043916071 | 3233.69560839292 |
| 42 | 23859 | 24738.742002527 | -879.742002527011 |
| 43 | 25500 | 28245.7536118687 | -2745.75361186865 |
| 44 | 30998 | 29465.5579652672 | 1532.44203473282 |
| 45 | 24475 | 25204.5483869939 | -729.548386993894 |
| 46 | 23145 | 26197.9138248614 | -3052.91382486144 |
| 47 | 29701 | 31277.8847142151 | -1576.88471421506 |
| 48 | 34365 | 34202.1348333372 | 162.865166662828 |
| 49 | 17556 | 18008.2840409601 | -452.284040960138 |
| 50 | 22077 | 20811.9801558956 | 1265.01984410444 |
| 51 | 25702 | 23622.3753212673 | 2079.62467873271 |
| 52 | 22214 | 24825.2539082843 | -2611.25390828432 |
| 53 | 26886 | 24240.3822731766 | 2645.6177268234 |
| 54 | 23191 | 25513.7939720525 | -2322.7939720525 |
| 55 | 27831 | 28509.5071560244 | -678.5071560244 |
| 56 | 35406 | 31036.4157428826 | 4369.58425711737 |
| 57 | 23195 | 26154.496343106 | -2959.49634310599 |
| 58 | 25110 | 26383.7491860897 | -1273.74918608966 |
| 59 | 30009 | 32191.5348743202 | -2182.53487432016 |
| 60 | 36242 | 35640.0309609682 | 601.969039031806 |
| 61 | 18450 | 18627.017577872 | -177.017577872048 |
| 62 | 21845 | 22015.8478416554 | -170.847841655421 |
| 63 | 26488 | 25017.0207643422 | 1470.97923565783 |
| 64 | 22394 | 24940.6931600334 | -2546.69316003338 |
| 65 | 28057 | 25704.2622033736 | 2352.73779662641 |
| 66 | 25451 | 25647.0675347378 | -196.067534737773 |
| 67 | 24872 | 29319.6100640472 | -4447.61006404716 |
| 68 | 33424 | 32916.938012254 | 507.061987745998 |
| 69 | 24052 | 25720.7217749869 | -1668.72177498689 |
| 70 | 28449 | 26433.7917039138 | 2015.20829608625 |
| 71 | 33533 | 32331.2583985411 | 1201.74160145888 |
| 72 | 37351 | 36839.8832867459 | 511.116713254072 |
| 73 | 19969 | 19112.5405429888 | 856.459457011177 |
| 74 | 21701 | 22683.3965436547 | -982.396543654671 |
| 75 | 26249 | 26141.2192762621 | 107.780723737924 |
| 76 | 24493 | 24890.2002096102 | -397.200209610186 |
| 77 | 24603 | 27118.6424433366 | -2515.64244333658 |
| 78 | 26485 | 26022.1427589437 | 462.857241056325 |
| 79 | 30723 | 28656.1571694956 | 2066.84283050439 |
| 80 | 34569 | 34157.4229120796 | 411.577087920385 |
| 81 | 26689 | 26144.2061451959 | 544.793854804131 |
| 82 | 26157 | 28046.0223252544 | -1889.02232525437 |
| 83 | 32064 | 33630.5021480142 | -1566.50214801419 |
| 84 | 38870 | 37851.1122695871 | 1018.88773041295 |
| 85 | 21337 | 19799.2153593638 | 1537.7846406362 |
| 86 | 19419 | 23019.9230621463 | -3600.92306214629 |
| 87 | 23166 | 26616.3935327637 | -3450.39353276375 |
| 88 | 28286 | 24930.6460252191 | 3355.35397478092 |
| 89 | 24570 | 26876.3395178581 | -2306.33951785808 |
| 90 | 24001 | 26530.51676962 | -2529.51676962 |
| 91 | 33151 | 29337.8447916895 | 3813.15520831049 |
| 92 | 24878 | 34540.161023167 | -9662.16102316701 |
| 93 | 26804 | 25877.5979925023 | 926.402007497702 |
| 94 | 28967 | 27079.8748818755 | 1887.12511812446 |
| 95 | 33311 | 32890.1166771892 | 420.883322810798 |
| 96 | 40226 | 37812.6064325416 | 2413.39356745841 |
| 97 | 20504 | 20053.1493755979 | 450.85062440205 |
| 98 | 23060 | 21813.5804382607 | 1246.41956173927 |
| 99 | 23562 | 25774.3256813748 | -2212.32568137482 |
| 100 | 27562 | 25905.0192368224 | 1656.98076317764 |
| 101 | 23940 | 26263.6975520913 | -2323.69755209127 |
| 102 | 24584 | 25838.5323099926 | -1254.53230999264 |
| 103 | 34303 | 30346.0875320326 | 3956.91246796743 |
| 104 | 25517 | 32052.1394602351 | -6535.13946023508 |
| 105 | 23494 | 26286.2661739538 | -2792.26617395383 |
| 106 | 29095 | 27447.7536369825 | 1647.24636301752 |
| 107 | 32903 | 32813.0713678031 | 89.9286321968684 |
| 108 | 34379 | 38150.9680680047 | -3771.96806800469 |
| 109 | 16991 | 19758.4569672235 | -2767.45696722354 |
| 110 | 21109 | 21370.734664652 | -261.734664651962 |
| 111 | 23740 | 24135.5985914489 | -395.598591448877 |
| 112 | 25552 | 25253.8254327628 | 298.174567237234 |
| 113 | 21752 | 24445.4639142612 | -2693.46391426115 |
| 114 | 20294 | 24178.5015986717 | -3884.50159867166 |
| 115 | 29009 | 29342.9348101488 | -333.934810148752 |
| 116 | 25500 | 27983.8777426644 | -2483.87774266444 |
| 117 | 24166 | 23648.7372295099 | 517.26277049015 |
| 118 | 26960 | 25908.3883305819 | 1051.61166941807 |
| 119 | 31222 | 30365.2567014461 | 856.743298553884 |
| 120 | 38641 | 34310.4905813879 | 4330.50941861207 |
| 121 | 14672 | 17809.3649304867 | -3137.36493048673 |
| 122 | 17543 | 19821.1469914741 | -2278.14699147414 |
| 123 | 25453 | 22127.732246221 | 3325.26775377896 |
| 124 | 32683 | 23538.7101707589 | 9144.28982924112 |
| 125 | 22449 | 22655.5325845493 | -206.532584549277 |
| 126 | 22316 | 22283.7459971534 | 32.2540028465628 |
| 127 | 27595 | 28516.2649897776 | -921.264989777639 |
| 128 | 25451 | 26667.099981965 | -1216.09998196495 |
| 129 | 25421 | 23316.8806862367 | 2104.11931376332 |
| 130 | 25288 | 25860.9884555389 | -572.98845553894 |
| 131 | 32568 | 30156.9450286538 | 2411.05497134623 |
| 132 | 35110 | 35137.5427455489 | -27.5427455488971 |
| 133 | 16052 | 16751.0333770975 | -699.033377097487 |
| 134 | 22146 | 19190.1297599036 | 2955.87024009641 |
| 135 | 21198 | 23460.954716575 | -2262.95471657499 |
| 136 | 19543 | 26002.1866122241 | -6459.18661222411 |
| 137 | 22084 | 21756.9413852293 | 327.058614770725 |
| 138 | 23816 | 21470.451934825 | 2345.54806517496 |
| 139 | 29961 | 27431.6991197466 | 2529.30088025342 |
| 140 | 26773 | 25798.3488840879 | 974.65111591213 |
| 141 | 26635 | 23508.6205286486 | 3126.37947135138 |
| 142 | 26972 | 25452.685384427 | 1519.31461557297 |
| 143 | 30207 | 30688.9221083319 | -481.922108331928 |
| 144 | 38687 | 34849.288334656 | 3837.71166534397 |
| 145 | 16974 | 16598.4923302349 | 375.507669765077 |
| 146 | 21697 | 20108.9694257825 | 1588.03057421751 |
| 147 | 24179 | 22998.3744156818 | 1180.62558431819 |
| 148 | 23757 | 24772.5356251825 | -1015.53562518251 |
| 149 | 25013 | 22670.9589960656 | 2342.04100393441 |
| 150 | 24019 | 23159.1013325659 | 859.898667434092 |
| 151 | 30345 | 29448.94161429 | 896.058385710039 |
| 152 | 24488 | 27314.5296019602 | -2826.52960196018 |
| 153 | 25156 | 25312.0172500213 | -156.017250021254 |
| 154 | 25650 | 26713.8727180966 | -1063.87271809665 |
| 155 | 30923 | 31428.21764374 | -505.217643740001 |
| 156 | 37240 | 36888.5310577561 | 351.468942243853 |
| 157 | 17466 | 17085.1903514527 | 380.809648547252 |
| 158 | 19463 | 21009.6602130812 | -1546.66021308122 |
| 159 | 24352 | 23607.1702664655 | 744.82973353445 |
| 160 | 26805 | 24793.5059875465 | 2011.49401245346 |
| 161 | 25236 | 23744.6005542153 | 1491.39944578473 |
| 162 | 24735 | 23797.7173186204 | 937.282681379598 |
| 163 | 29356 | 30221.1128114769 | -865.112811476898 |
| 164 | 31234 | 26957.4529359636 | 4276.54706403644 |
| 165 | 22724 | 26134.9080071044 | -3410.90800710437 |
| 166 | 28496 | 27126.8289212359 | 1369.17107876414 |
| 167 | 32857 | 32354.7527072292 | 502.247292770757 |
| 168 | 37198 | 38367.5698422472 | -1169.56984224721 |
| 169 | 13652 | 17800.497034701 | -4148.49703470101 |
| 170 | 22784 | 20965.8167701009 | 1818.18322989905 |
| 171 | 23565 | 24491.8262396236 | -926.826239623639 |
| 172 | 26323 | 25922.5372462624 | 400.462753737571 |
| 173 | 23779 | 24594.0510975169 | -815.051097516913 |
| 174 | 27549 | 24320.134246367 | 3228.86575363305 |
| 175 | 29660 | 30540.1221802575 | -880.122180257495 |
| 176 | 23356 | 28536.6697519588 | -5180.66975195879 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 177 | 25038.0503507829 | 23551.1135971437 | 26524.9871044221 |
| 178 | 27444.6256847735 | 25909.6583620647 | 28979.5930074824 |
| 179 | 32268.8796002749 | 30651.78474641 | 33885.9744541398 |
| 180 | 37697.6282845322 | 35959.1722287595 | 39436.0843403049 |
| 181 | 16563.0346178376 | 15008.5402486784 | 18117.5289869967 |
| 182 | 21567.3290637588 | 19888.6601931806 | 23245.9979343371 |
| 183 | 24243.4586828578 | 22440.6395001189 | 26046.2778655967 |
| 184 | 26065.186779798 | 24133.3170990294 | 27997.0564605666 |
| 185 | 24378.2952323893 | 22419.1685512163 | 26337.4219135622 |
| 186 | 25176.5563048759 | 23099.7588896119 | 27253.3537201399 |
| 187 | 30040.6754939748 | 27638.7122096642 | 32442.6387782855 |
| 188 | 26969.9958327345 | 25139.639086212 | 28800.3525792569 |
