| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.786721671208237 |
| beta | 0.155737227444934 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 180144 | 192256.77590812 | -12112.7759081197 |
| 14 | 173666 | 174646.428106397 | -980.428106396546 |
| 15 | 165688 | 164180.807371187 | 1507.19262881341 |
| 16 | 161570 | 159602.165810082 | 1967.83418991757 |
| 17 | 156145 | 154188.606970164 | 1956.39302983636 |
| 18 | 153730 | 152119.123018617 | 1610.87698138296 |
| 19 | 182698 | 179952.348401522 | 2745.65159847814 |
| 20 | 200765 | 200442.561219332 | 322.438780667988 |
| 21 | 176512 | 176164.427462602 | 347.572537397995 |
| 22 | 166618 | 164082.693874569 | 2535.30612543056 |
| 23 | 158644 | 157564.603112553 | 1079.39688744652 |
| 24 | 159585 | 162699.575040562 | -3114.57504056211 |
| 25 | 163095 | 157033.520593308 | 6061.47940669156 |
| 26 | 159044 | 158060.686855116 | 983.313144883898 |
| 27 | 155511 | 151876.285741275 | 3634.71425872456 |
| 28 | 153745 | 151536.070533916 | 2208.92946608434 |
| 29 | 150569 | 148805.699979993 | 1763.30002000669 |
| 30 | 150605 | 148982.909933439 | 1622.09006656095 |
| 31 | 179612 | 179540.649021074 | 71.3509789262025 |
| 32 | 194690 | 199556.1218355 | -4866.12183550018 |
| 33 | 189917 | 172711.692459615 | 17205.3075403846 |
| 34 | 184128 | 177934.638374221 | 6193.36162577895 |
| 35 | 175335 | 178007.834878522 | -2672.83487852153 |
| 36 | 179566 | 182860.560671384 | -3294.56067138413 |
| 37 | 181140 | 182552.108246818 | -1412.10824681763 |
| 38 | 177876 | 179243.047588606 | -1367.04758860619 |
| 39 | 175041 | 174113.551861834 | 927.448138166044 |
| 40 | 169292 | 173346.18218413 | -4054.18218412981 |
| 41 | 166070 | 166832.87427879 | -762.874278790143 |
| 42 | 166972 | 165922.491006595 | 1049.50899340509 |
| 43 | 206348 | 196558.795284389 | 9789.20471561147 |
| 44 | 215706 | 225216.873886494 | -9510.87388649434 |
| 45 | 202108 | 200907.006969103 | 1200.99303089728 |
| 46 | 195411 | 190710.856136706 | 4700.14386329436 |
| 47 | 193111 | 187055.840220638 | 6055.1597793616 |
| 48 | 195198 | 199049.339913743 | -3851.339913743 |
| 49 | 198770 | 199042.997871197 | -272.997871196945 |
| 50 | 194163 | 197117.93077686 | -2954.93077686024 |
| 51 | 190420 | 191512.249043427 | -1092.2490434272 |
| 52 | 189733 | 188129.678889893 | 1603.32111010668 |
| 53 | 186029 | 187498.596717085 | -1469.59671708496 |
| 54 | 191531 | 187061.553357131 | 4469.44664286866 |
| 55 | 232571 | 223314.193184279 | 9256.80681572098 |
| 56 | 243477 | 248433.712722975 | -4956.712722975 |
| 57 | 227247 | 231545.874832781 | -4298.87483278071 |
| 58 | 217859 | 218649.860480711 | -790.860480711417 |
| 59 | 208679 | 211171.888635607 | -2492.88863560685 |
| 60 | 213188 | 213488.229628962 | -300.229628961562 |
| 61 | 216234 | 216634.512356744 | -400.51235674409 |
| 62 | 213586 | 213617.211916038 | -31.211916037777 |
| 63 | 209465 | 210647.255498068 | -1182.25549806794 |
| 64 | 204045 | 207696.056936062 | -3651.05693606203 |
| 65 | 200237 | 201559.353700861 | -1322.35370086058 |
| 66 | 203666 | 201806.358136103 | 1859.64186389704 |
| 67 | 241476 | 236008.629329493 | 5467.37067050653 |
| 68 | 260307 | 253632.97407016 | 6674.02592983964 |
| 69 | 243324 | 245978.10496673 | -2654.1049667302 |
| 70 | 244460 | 235268.282471266 | 9191.71752873395 |
| 71 | 233575 | 236647.931624635 | -3072.93162463498 |
| 72 | 237217 | 240271.63520002 | -3054.63520001969 |
| 73 | 235243 | 242188.152693052 | -6945.15269305155 |
| 74 | 230354 | 234257.517648547 | -3903.51764854742 |
| 75 | 227184 | 227677.911670693 | -493.911670693051 |
| 76 | 221678 | 224508.313359514 | -2830.31335951379 |
| 77 | 217142 | 219381.134929034 | -2239.13492903442 |
| 78 | 219452 | 219340.378779068 | 111.621220931673 |
| 79 | 256446 | 252477.564273766 | 3968.4357262344 |
| 80 | 265845 | 268537.035194253 | -2692.03519425297 |
| 81 | 248624 | 249733.664875924 | -1109.66487592363 |
| 82 | 241114 | 241164.041968422 | -50.0419684220105 |
| 83 | 229245 | 229923.595156386 | -678.595156385709 |
| 84 | 231805 | 232994.61627415 | -1189.61627415035 |
| 85 | 219277 | 233336.866000631 | -14059.8660006305 |
| 86 | 219313 | 217374.18329822 | 1938.81670178048 |
| 87 | 212610 | 213750.413699219 | -1140.41369921915 |
| 88 | 214771 | 207127.034028596 | 7643.96597140448 |
| 89 | 211142 | 209202.751430528 | 1939.24856947243 |
| 90 | 211457 | 212298.996501291 | -841.996501291404 |
| 91 | 240048 | 244740.097239514 | -4692.09723951353 |
| 92 | 240636 | 250736.072567315 | -10100.0725673146 |
| 93 | 230580 | 223704.945028586 | 6875.05497141436 |
| 94 | 208795 | 219884.192553616 | -11089.1925536162 |
| 95 | 197922 | 196713.536485743 | 1208.46351425743 |
| 96 | 194596 | 198279.950262188 | -3683.95026218813 |
| 97 | 194581 | 190729.090050536 | 3851.90994946379 |
| 98 | 185686 | 191278.927945051 | -5592.92794505064 |
| 99 | 178106 | 179159.001172259 | -1053.00117225942 |
| 100 | 172608 | 172574.581266998 | 33.4187330016284 |
| 101 | 167302 | 164610.437912255 | 2691.56208774468 |
| 102 | 168053 | 164961.754155404 | 3091.2458445956 |
| 103 | 202300 | 197414.376094765 | 4885.62390523526 |
| 104 | 202388 | 208703.725659619 | -6315.72565961938 |
| 105 | 182516 | 187645.695259936 | -5129.6952599361 |
| 106 | 173476 | 168453.759284006 | 5022.24071599363 |
| 107 | 166444 | 160459.741451464 | 5984.25854853578 |
| 108 | 171297 | 165203.67108995 | 6093.32891004978 |
| 109 | 169701 | 168613.71455601 | 1087.28544399026 |
| 110 | 164182 | 166297.126878907 | -2115.12687890694 |
| 111 | 161914 | 159630.579876355 | 2283.42012364493 |
| 112 | 159612 | 158060.539554747 | 1551.46044525341 |
| 113 | 151001 | 154201.424991105 | -3200.42499110513 |
| 114 | 158114 | 151624.562134491 | 6489.43786550936 |
| 115 | 186530 | 189171.601050891 | -2641.60105089133 |
| 116 | 187069 | 193266.148679687 | -6197.14867968677 |
| 117 | 174330 | 173684.922388921 | 645.077611079323 |
| 118 | 169362 | 163039.411629569 | 6322.58837043142 |
| 119 | 166827 | 158271.002348831 | 8555.99765116919 |
| 120 | 178037 | 167373.950770154 | 10663.0492298462 |
| 121 | 186413 | 176183.815808529 | 10229.1841914707 |
| 122 | 189226 | 184368.839357322 | 4857.16064267812 |
| 123 | 191563 | 188972.400892042 | 2590.59910795817 |
| 124 | 188906 | 192372.294027718 | -3466.29402771773 |
| 125 | 186005 | 187821.724755116 | -1816.72475511601 |
| 126 | 195309 | 192839.215792406 | 2469.78420759359 |
| 127 | 223532 | 229223.087110724 | -5691.08711072433 |
| 128 | 226899 | 233733.221800341 | -6834.22180034057 |
| 129 | 214126 | 218605.044575766 | -4479.04457576631 |
| 130 | 206903 | 208006.298620989 | -1103.29862098902 |
| 131 | 204442 | 199829.420257715 | 4612.57974228458 |
| 132 | 220375 | 207753.529268726 | 12621.4707312738 |
| 133 | 214320 | 219725.686840236 | -5405.68684023627 |
| 134 | 212588 | 214263.16287187 | -1675.16287187024 |
| 135 | 205816 | 212242.323659019 | -6426.32365901885 |
| 136 | 202196 | 205149.9623062 | -2953.96230619974 |
| 137 | 195722 | 199310.402816274 | -3588.40281627362 |
| 138 | 198563 | 201587.356456262 | -3024.35645626215 |
| 139 | 229139 | 228974.239624869 | 164.760375131242 |
| 140 | 229527 | 235630.868228266 | -6103.86822826631 |
| 141 | 211868 | 219452.446170659 | -7584.44617065854 |
| 142 | 203555 | 204622.969306613 | -1067.96930661306 |
| 143 | 195770 | 195189.669246083 | 580.330753916613 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 144 | 198652.31584729 | 188946.127403192 | 208358.504291388 |
| 145 | 192306.353232713 | 179187.823603671 | 205424.882861755 |
| 146 | 188010.82132942 | 171506.694169197 | 204514.948489644 |
| 147 | 182618.374637975 | 162670.69897198 | 202566.05030397 |
| 148 | 178433.511095258 | 154949.581220176 | 201917.440970341 |
| 149 | 172255.700582945 | 145126.928102198 | 199384.473063691 |
| 150 | 175388.800333859 | 144499.251040227 | 206278.34962749 |
| 151 | 204118.502515161 | 169349.186596989 | 238887.818433332 |
| 152 | 207571.683921239 | 168802.856144804 | 246340.511697675 |
| 153 | 194890.525319255 | 152002.965606995 | 237778.085031515 |
| 154 | 187357.973538446 | 140233.710876374 | 234482.236200517 |
| 155 | 179187.517956523 | 127710.236010429 | 230664.799902617 |
