| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.365777387991567 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 93 | 94.5619658119659 | -1.56196581196586 |
| 14 | 94 | 95.2432564147553 | -1.24325641475525 |
| 15 | 90 | 90.9161237083847 | -0.916123708384688 |
| 16 | 91 | 91.3753154155436 | -0.375315415543625 |
| 17 | 104 | 103.615655900796 | 0.384344099204498 |
| 18 | 103 | 102.217195992448 | 0.782804007551817 |
| 19 | 88 | 91.9644837085955 | -3.96448370859551 |
| 20 | 79 | 80.3086542572194 | -1.30865425721936 |
| 21 | 82 | 80.6659338321853 | 1.33406616781467 |
| 22 | 88 | 80.9898607814122 | 7.01013921858778 |
| 23 | 93 | 84.5566335718669 | 8.4433664281331 |
| 24 | 89 | 89.9393151340941 | -0.939315134094144 |
| 25 | 94 | 93.8993899050004 | 0.100610094999595 |
| 26 | 96 | 95.3909458867479 | 0.609054113252128 |
| 27 | 94 | 91.9488214465689 | 2.05117855343114 |
| 28 | 92 | 93.8363780725177 | -1.83637807251775 |
| 29 | 113 | 106.024088117090 | 6.97591188290978 |
| 30 | 122 | 107.289386939289 | 14.7106130607113 |
| 31 | 107 | 99.1203150560555 | 7.87968494394453 |
| 32 | 98 | 93.4812017690377 | 4.51879823096229 |
| 33 | 103 | 97.6461047445488 | 5.35389525545118 |
| 34 | 110 | 103.040288153836 | 6.9597118461641 |
| 35 | 113 | 107.497600856162 | 5.50239914383845 |
| 36 | 110 | 105.853834278932 | 4.1461657210683 |
| 37 | 123 | 112.333607048810 | 10.6663929511903 |
| 38 | 124 | 118.012354179097 | 5.98764582090315 |
| 39 | 118 | 117.452224894107 | 0.547775105892953 |
| 40 | 117 | 116.324294216278 | 0.675705783722094 |
| 41 | 139 | 135.019821285508 | 3.9801787144915 |
| 42 | 146 | 140.094871038333 | 5.9051289616668 |
| 43 | 134 | 124.372623108693 | 9.62737689130746 |
| 44 | 121 | 117.241225667423 | 3.75877433257693 |
| 45 | 123 | 121.657766502723 | 1.34223349727658 |
| 46 | 122 | 126.603019945168 | -4.60301994516817 |
| 47 | 127 | 125.906686146231 | 1.09331385376878 |
| 48 | 122 | 121.790021964285 | 0.209978035714784 |
| 49 | 139 | 130.965301828747 | 8.03469817125347 |
| 50 | 136 | 132.714067290540 | 3.28593270946033 |
| 51 | 127 | 127.715623426682 | -0.715623426681802 |
| 52 | 123 | 126.206706662264 | -3.2067066622639 |
| 53 | 140 | 145.577906501360 | -5.57790650135954 |
| 54 | 146 | 148.377671783479 | -2.37767178347923 |
| 55 | 138 | 131.986496436504 | 6.01350356349587 |
| 56 | 120 | 119.811225405218 | 0.188774594782117 |
| 57 | 122 | 121.389316220708 | 0.610683779292174 |
| 58 | 115 | 122.296371150803 | -7.29637115080284 |
| 59 | 115 | 124.227614083759 | -9.22761408375862 |
| 60 | 102 | 115.775556289368 | -13.7755562893678 |
| 61 | 119 | 124.797858381330 | -5.79785838133036 |
| 62 | 114 | 118.47521300308 | -4.47521300307987 |
| 63 | 108 | 108.100040147905 | -0.100040147904664 |
| 64 | 102 | 105.236388510888 | -3.23638851088785 |
| 65 | 121 | 123.092862845378 | -2.09286284537787 |
| 66 | 109 | 129.197039514833 | -20.1970395148332 |
| 67 | 102 | 111.609815529802 | -9.60981552980158 |
| 68 | 95 | 90.0257128280314 | 4.9742871719686 |
| 69 | 98 | 93.6218202792357 | 4.37817972076428 |
| 70 | 92 | 90.8921070030122 | 1.10789299698779 |
| 71 | 94 | 94.672601786576 | -0.672601786575981 |
| 72 | 90 | 86.4653662595795 | 3.53463374042047 |
| 73 | 113 | 106.878980851325 | 6.12101914867459 |
| 74 | 111 | 105.754842970346 | 5.24515702965358 |
| 75 | 103 | 101.709995232254 | 1.29000476774644 |
| 76 | 90 | 97.365647542735 | -7.36564754273498 |
| 77 | 108 | 114.436982128694 | -6.43698212869378 |
| 78 | 99 | 107.47009997801 | -8.47009997800993 |
| 79 | 95 | 100.886982155598 | -5.88698215559765 |
| 80 | 91 | 89.9141754306875 | 1.08582456931245 |
| 81 | 85 | 91.709906363049 | -6.70990636304892 |
| 82 | 72 | 82.8503321332926 | -10.8503321332926 |
| 83 | 90 | 81.127548511388 | 8.87245148861194 |
| 84 | 90 | 79.0800015448966 | 10.9199984551034 |
| 85 | 114 | 103.835359660628 | 10.1646403393723 |
| 86 | 115 | 103.634795415925 | 11.3652045840753 |
| 87 | 104 | 99.3200756882346 | 4.67992431176539 |
| 88 | 93 | 90.7260734980385 | 2.27392650196151 |
| 89 | 101 | 111.912326903993 | -10.9123269039928 |
| 90 | 90 | 102.019015518124 | -12.0190155181241 |
| 91 | 79 | 95.776056371702 | -16.7760563717020 |
| 92 | 75 | 85.2425842164814 | -10.2425842164814 |
| 93 | 71 | 77.9504105386372 | -6.95041053863723 |
| 94 | 61 | 66.3769136729022 | -5.37691367290218 |
| 95 | 84 | 79.1648181035855 | 4.8351818964145 |
| 96 | 87 | 76.9391297963404 | 10.0608702036596 |
| 97 | 107 | 100.901173027148 | 6.0988269728521 |
| 98 | 99 | 99.9748511803374 | -0.97485118033741 |
| 99 | 93 | 86.9064621711573 | 6.09353782884267 |
| 100 | 74 | 77.3035896254469 | -3.30358962544692 |
| 101 | 87 | 88.0866936731075 | -1.08669367310749 |
| 102 | 71 | 81.0854898022608 | -10.0854898022608 |
| 103 | 67 | 72.5327477662147 | -5.53274776621473 |
| 104 | 61 | 70.2554994408607 | -9.25549944086075 |
| 105 | 63 | 65.4123500431171 | -2.41235004311707 |
| 106 | 52 | 56.4967203841547 | -4.49672038415467 |
| 107 | 80 | 76.0833215429755 | 3.91667845702447 |
| 108 | 84 | 76.835915134572 | 7.16408486542801 |
| 109 | 102 | 97.2255623840558 | 4.77443761594418 |
| 110 | 93 | 91.3285222227689 | 1.67147777723112 |
| 111 | 87 | 83.7110326475485 | 3.28896735245145 |
| 112 | 72 | 67.1224409191098 | 4.87755908089021 |
| 113 | 83 | 82.3040297127886 | 0.695970287211424 |
| 114 | 72 | 70.247644023051 | 1.75235597694895 |
| 115 | 66 | 68.912370241473 | -2.91237024147304 |
| 116 | 64 | 65.2325434717181 | -1.23254347171812 |
| 117 | 64 | 67.6640900377397 | -3.66409003773971 |
| 118 | 47 | 56.9686473910139 | -9.96864739101389 |
| 119 | 77 | 79.8897091709066 | -2.88970917090664 |
| 120 | 79 | 80.212258648891 | -1.21225864889095 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 96.0224605264407 | 83.440745007033 | 108.604176045848 |
| 122 | 86.4110717509991 | 73.0140961739883 | 99.80804732801 |
| 123 | 79.2080418636299 | 65.042649394279 | 93.3734343329808 |
| 124 | 62.4239410432473 | 47.5297229365301 | 77.3181591499646 |
| 125 | 73.1693708494714 | 57.5803643958778 | 88.758377303065 |
| 126 | 61.5283986573916 | 45.2742757524206 | 77.7825215623626 |
| 127 | 56.593677837182 | 39.7006052744532 | 73.4867503999108 |
| 128 | 55.0445143688531 | 37.5357939755936 | 72.5532347621126 |
| 129 | 56.3847556522234 | 38.2813118083284 | 74.4881994961185 |
| 130 | 43.0310614567175 | 24.3518198177006 | 61.7103030957343 |
| 131 | 74.088051729307 | 54.850238511363 | 93.325864947251 |
| 132 | 76.5314685314685 | 56.7508505783251 | 96.3120864846119 |
