| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.909335006287375 |
| beta | 0.0820112173986116 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 269285 | 267036.963587938 | 2248.03641206183 |
| 14 | 269829 | 269956.087441595 | -127.087441595097 |
| 15 | 270911 | 271170.191826702 | -259.19182670163 |
| 16 | 266844 | 267062.253623455 | -218.253623455414 |
| 17 | 271244 | 271674.78701356 | -430.787013560126 |
| 18 | 269907 | 270275.071238274 | -368.071238273929 |
| 19 | 271296 | 272914.495646938 | -1618.49564693752 |
| 20 | 270157 | 270694.894581584 | -537.894581584318 |
| 21 | 271322 | 268996.716820131 | 2325.28317986906 |
| 22 | 267179 | 268383.934385677 | -1204.93438567704 |
| 23 | 264101 | 267978.393974333 | -3877.39397433336 |
| 24 | 265518 | 260308.99111018 | 5209.00888982008 |
| 25 | 269419 | 271628.582124246 | -2209.58212424570 |
| 26 | 268714 | 270038.900248436 | -1324.90024843649 |
| 27 | 272482 | 269817.627795619 | 2664.37220438116 |
| 28 | 268351 | 268240.110135488 | 110.889864511730 |
| 29 | 268175 | 273069.616157436 | -4894.61615743616 |
| 30 | 270674 | 267210.580163912 | 3463.41983608826 |
| 31 | 272764 | 273090.010729606 | -326.010729606496 |
| 32 | 272599 | 272101.221012437 | 497.77898756275 |
| 33 | 270333 | 271632.364748922 | -1299.36474892183 |
| 34 | 270846 | 267185.517699482 | 3660.48230051773 |
| 35 | 270491 | 271094.687152619 | -603.687152618659 |
| 36 | 269160 | 267511.707926336 | 1648.29207366367 |
| 37 | 274027 | 275102.447981403 | -1075.44798140280 |
| 38 | 273784 | 274824.034737523 | -1040.03473752266 |
| 39 | 276663 | 275462.551664384 | 1200.44833561569 |
| 40 | 274525 | 272360.730914948 | 2164.2690850519 |
| 41 | 271344 | 278947.796646886 | -7603.79664688563 |
| 42 | 271115 | 271430.998603056 | -315.99860305601 |
| 43 | 270798 | 273309.685809758 | -2511.68580975791 |
| 44 | 273911 | 270026.684724045 | 3884.31527595507 |
| 45 | 273985 | 272336.431310992 | 1648.56868900813 |
| 46 | 271917 | 271064.142755852 | 852.857244147512 |
| 47 | 273338 | 271909.167855247 | 1428.83214475308 |
| 48 | 270601 | 270373.748501195 | 227.251498804777 |
| 49 | 273547 | 276373.387849601 | -2826.38784960087 |
| 50 | 275363 | 274294.375559287 | 1068.62444071274 |
| 51 | 281229 | 277007.145761278 | 4221.85423872236 |
| 52 | 277793 | 276839.591703434 | 953.408296566282 |
| 53 | 279913 | 281538.258895376 | -1625.25889537612 |
| 54 | 282500 | 280645.135185097 | 1854.86481490283 |
| 55 | 280041 | 285071.065866953 | -5030.06586695346 |
| 56 | 282166 | 280569.156570317 | 1596.84342968272 |
| 57 | 290304 | 280881.215734922 | 9422.78426507779 |
| 58 | 283519 | 287335.198788099 | -3816.19878809917 |
| 59 | 287816 | 284532.050513842 | 3283.94948615762 |
| 60 | 285226 | 285085.409702811 | 140.590297188726 |
| 61 | 287595 | 291692.649041344 | -4097.64904134435 |
| 62 | 289741 | 289440.89696119 | 300.103038810194 |
| 63 | 289148 | 292368.828148631 | -3220.82814863132 |
| 64 | 288301 | 284980.202394883 | 3320.79760511749 |
| 65 | 290155 | 291869.663409974 | -1714.66340997408 |
| 66 | 289648 | 291381.338234087 | -1733.33823408716 |
| 67 | 288225 | 291839.019646254 | -3614.01964625437 |
| 68 | 289351 | 289230.559528781 | 120.440471219423 |
| 69 | 294735 | 288746.471936757 | 5988.5280632429 |
| 70 | 305333 | 290445.089464971 | 14887.9105350295 |
| 71 | 309030 | 306356.042143161 | 2673.95785683906 |
| 72 | 310215 | 306766.552391678 | 3448.44760832243 |
| 73 | 321935 | 317666.33408638 | 4268.66591362015 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 74 | 325422.61644011 | 318581.935284816 | 332263.297595403 |
| 75 | 329803.748539347 | 320181.520720576 | 339425.976358117 |
| 76 | 327380.366946838 | 315458.450049121 | 339302.283844554 |
| 77 | 332982.676776855 | 318675.494227277 | 347289.859326433 |
| 78 | 336076.143786297 | 319534.599115959 | 352617.688456635 |
| 79 | 340252.288218566 | 321450.873076376 | 359053.703360755 |
| 80 | 343784.157516855 | 322754.771464654 | 364813.543569056 |
| 81 | 346015.722146355 | 322825.365145904 | 369206.079146805 |
| 82 | 344266.049813088 | 319171.722529072 | 369360.377097103 |
| 83 | 346237.360765989 | 318977.958341959 | 373496.763190018 |
| 84 | 344379.765529816 | 315241.895051493 | 373517.63600814 |
| 85 | 353143.58931973 | 321962.433955165 | 384324.744684294 |
