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*Unverified author*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Sat, 19 Feb 2011 13:01:29 +0000
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2011/Feb/19/t1298121263c51dj0j7gibufyl.htm/, Retrieved Sat, 19 Feb 2011 14:14:36 +0100
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
521 103 2708 553 234 349 42 1146 836 93 341 58 783 492 110 440 46 3314 419 437 367 64 3096 601 367 537 55 1847 459 192 423 46 2001 56 176 470 98 3428 701 273 380 126 3363 3567 171 453 49 1405 321 217 452 52 7120 730 394 429 89 1198 1260 249 351 70 4474 1078 621 462 47 1490 363 192 492 110 4757 1523 295 363 48 1238 692 157 372 63 2703 700 136 490 88 4057 647 346 347 28 1143 872 104 329 32 810 508 138 442 41 5211 464 694 337 51 4417 637 504 485 59 2779 542 306 402 31 2713 97 218 446 98 5791 751 340 383 112 5152 3749 241 426 34 2041 451 367 426 50 13207 1176 556 407 66 1506 1687 309 391 65 6619 1278 792 418 38 2168 378 301 465 91 7846 1588 468 336 37 1495 868 197 349 51 3659 850 194 503 118 8476 75 etc...
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time7 seconds
R Server'George Udny Yule' @ 216.218.223.82


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
Cons[t] = + 372.191566591711 + 0.944504163917124Inc[t] + 0.0011644936945463Price[t] -0.0317530980421622Rds[t] + 0.0279306889646903Elec[t] + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)372.19156659171117.75558720.961900
Inc0.9445041639171240.2533013.72880.0005260.000263
Price0.00116449369454630.0022240.52350.6031450.301572
Rds-0.03175309804216220.009677-3.28140.0019760.000988
Elec0.02793068896469030.0445030.62760.5333630.266681


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.602502948652427
R-squared0.36300980313487
Adjusted R-squared0.307619351233554
F-TEST (value)6.55365303358804
F-TEST (DF numerator)4
F-TEST (DF denominator)46
p-value0.000292300025725667
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation46.4093977458369
Sum Squared Residuals99076.2811600395


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
1521461.60526240042959.3947375995712
2349389.247215360649-40.2472153606493
3341415.334458211106-74.3344582111065
4440418.39905323352921.6009467664708
5367427.412056487425-60.4120564874245
6537417.078135740848119.921864259152
7423421.1065377821111.89346221788934
8470454.11101540029915.888984599701
9380386.628130636598-6.6281306365976
10453415.97659929829237.0234007017083
11452417.42190810188134.5780918981189
12429424.5933386454854.40666135451462
13351426.631921012932-75.631921012932
14462412.15467559260649.8453244073941
15492441.50610605392250.4938939460776
16363401.381383975862-38.3813839758618
17372416.414360444533-44.4143604445332
18490449.15204788369740.8479521163035
19347375.18478963382-28.1847896338196
20329391.082801001351-62.0828010013507
21442421.63487460452620.365125395474
22337419.355191385642-82.3551913856423
23485422.49005192430962.5099480756908
24402407.639306750659-5.6393067506591
25446457.146415259038-11.1464152590381
26383371.66443594515611.335564054844
27426402.61135542848923.3886445715112
28426412.98406277822613.0159372217744
29407391.3456754071915.6543245928101
30391422.832767372678-31.8327673726778
31418407.01181346877310.9881865312271
32465429.92570578010135.0742942198986
33336386.819795355439-50.8197953554388
34349403.050581703142-54.0505817031417
35503482.7700453927620.2299546072401
36384327.44781535078256.552184649218
37334391.668118986771-57.6681189867714
38463423.36185417492639.6381458250737
39399426.396826340799-27.3968263407994
40523434.51572440490388.4842755950968
41395420.234011102258-25.2340111022579
42489488.7157632236480.28423677635202
43392408.279825236058-16.2798252360583
44443403.6009736910139.3990263089904
45463467.504777356167-4.50477735616743
46434406.55560549763727.4443945023626
47421441.818814383636-20.8188143836361
48434412.52250069963221.4774993003678
49484549.818087712125-65.8180877121253
50367389.691212537649-22.6912125376488
51380395.164213848495-15.1642138484949


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
80.9896613781737930.02067724365241370.0103386218262069
90.9777838322348370.0444323355303250.0222161677651625
100.973146311691550.05370737661690130.0268536883084506
110.9526936037237550.09461279255249050.0473063962762453
120.917427201410290.1651455971794210.0825727985897104
130.9297663443093970.1404673113812050.0702336556906027
140.9291386052167570.1417227895664860.0708613947832432
150.914038152452540.1719236950949190.0859618475474594
160.8899708653359680.2200582693280650.110029134664032
170.9060376433680280.1879247132639440.0939623566319721
180.8877175960078150.2245648079843710.112282403992185
190.8433662850166390.3132674299667220.156633714983361
200.8456658961694320.3086682076611350.154334103830568
210.8178685302412110.3642629395175780.182131469758789
220.9106491697358850.1787016605282310.0893508302641155
230.943572666976430.1128546660471410.0564273330235703
240.9131910028316180.1736179943367630.0868089971683816
250.9009822856179890.1980354287640230.0990177143820115
260.8656932347402340.2686135305195320.134306765259766
270.8413195813297150.317360837340570.158680418670285
280.7803249287121810.4393501425756390.219675071287819
290.7284298070477280.5431403859045440.271570192952272
300.7088430688125920.5823138623748160.291156931187408
310.6364229193064150.727154161387170.363577080693585
320.5847277247102840.8305445505794320.415272275289716
330.5782755504734820.8434488990530350.421724449526517
340.6082166758112320.7835666483775360.391783324188768
350.5841594267508270.8316811464983450.415840573249173
360.6003823822035580.7992352355928850.399617617796442
370.6762266846077440.6475466307845130.323773315392256
380.6310830929326160.7378338141347680.368916907067384
390.569503705670320.860992588659360.43049629432968
400.8759091323957720.2481817352084560.124090867604228
410.853918519492310.292162961015380.14608148050769
420.795248642492860.409502715014280.20475135750714
430.6765882387166430.6468235225667150.323411761283357


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level00OK
5% type I error level20.0555555555555556NOK
10% type I error level40.111111111111111NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2011/Feb/19/t1298121263c51dj0j7gibufyl/9kdsn1298120480.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2011/Feb/19/t1298121263c51dj0j7gibufyl/9kdsn1298120480.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Do not include Seasonal Dummies ; par3 = No Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Do not include Seasonal Dummies ; par3 = No Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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