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ws7 Crime

*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Tue, 23 Nov 2010 15:19:28 +0000
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290526055pj18hzb2jub05qi.htm/, Retrieved Tue, 23 Nov 2010 16:27:51 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290526055pj18hzb2jub05qi.htm/},
    year = {2010},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2010},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
184 74 11 31 20 213 72 11 43 18 347 70 18 16 16 565 71 11 25 19 327 72 9 29 24 260 68 8 32 15 325 68 12 24 14 102 62 13 28 11 38 69 7 25 12 226 66 9 58 15 137 60 13 21 9 369 81 4 77 36 109 66 9 37 12 809 67 11 37 16 29 65 12 35 11 245 64 10 42 14 118 64 12 21 10 148 62 7 81 27 387 59 15 31 16 98 56 15 50 15 608 46 22 24 8 218 54 14 27 13 254 54 20 22 11 697 45 26 18 8 827 57 12 23 11 693 57 9 60 18 448 61 19 14 12 942 52 17 31 10 1017 44 21 24 9 216 43 18 23 8 673 48 19 22 10 989 57 14 25 12 630 47 19 25 9 404 50 19 21 9 692 48 16 32 11 1517 49 13 31 14 879 72 13 13 22 631 59 14 21 13 1375 49 9 46 13 1139 54 13 27 12 3545 62 22 18 15 706 47 17 39 11 451 45 34 15 10 433 48 26 23 12 601 69 23 7 12 1024 42 23 23 11 457 49 18 30 12 1441 57 15 35 13 1022 72 22 15 16 1244 67 26 18 16
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time6 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
Crimerate[t] = + 1395.25905402689 -22.0239243392042`25+HSgraduate`[t] + 11.3564365152109`Dropouts16-19`[t] -13.0018979457832`CollegeStudents18-24`[t] + 52.8071869293045`25+CollegeGrads`[t] + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)1395.259054026891026.9460181.35860.181030.090515
`25+HSgraduate`-22.023924339204214.248002-1.54580.1291680.064584
`Dropouts16-19`11.356436515210921.1028390.53810.5931270.296564
`CollegeStudents18-24`-13.00189794578329.404988-1.38240.1736580.086829
`25+CollegeGrads`52.807186929304528.7522151.83660.0728750.036438


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.387809301531643
R-squared0.150396054354461
Adjusted R-squared0.0748757036304126
F-TEST (value)1.99146392876285
F-TEST (DF numerator)4
F-TEST (DF denominator)45
p-value0.112003982595635
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation551.841741660512
Sum Squared Residuals13703818.8527508


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
1184543.494356859904-359.494356859904
2213325.905056330308-112.905056330308
3347694.884831292732-347.884831292732
4565634.770330622917-69.7703306229168
5327802.06187611668-475.061876116680
6260364.530760757196-104.530760757196
7325461.164503455000-136.164503455000
8102394.23533343439-292.23533343439
938263.742124735350-225.742124735350
1022681.885699360451144.114300639549
11137423.682093874672-286.682093874672
12369556.659516241847-187.659516241847
13109196.503995433985-87.5039954339852
14809408.421691842421400.578308157579
1529225.793838281084-196.793838281084
16245292.513164757297-47.5131647572974
17118377.037146931949-259.037146931949
18148481.911114085486-333.911114085486
19387708.050220291597-321.050220291597
2098474.278745410024-376.278745410024
21608742.412082493774-134.412082493774
22218700.399436467627-482.399436467627
23254727.933171429199-473.933171429199
24697887.873140568521-190.873140568521
25827558.008008344116268.991991655884
26693412.518783309636280.481216690364
27448719.231635035129-271.231635035129
28942568.087442120621373.912557879379
291017827.910681586276189.089318413724
30216776.060007396327-560.060007396327
31673795.913094019909-122.913094019909
32989607.524272412276381.475727587724
33630726.124137592459-96.1241375924588
34404712.059956357979-308.059956357979
35692684.6319919457487.36800805425159
361517799.962216794608717.037783205392
37879949.903615451446-70.9036154514464
38631668.291202446305-37.2912024463051
391375506.700814617712868.299185382288
401139636.235813023111502.764186976889
413545837.6909892463382707.30901075366
42706626.99906717968179.0009328203192
434511123.34470038617-672.344700386167
44433968.02062553921-535.020625539211
45601679.479272002822-78.4792720028218
4610241013.2876750995010.7123249005013
47457764.131923457837-307.131923457837
481441541.668916398959899.331083601041
491022709.26462662095312.735373379049
501244825.804300540465418.195699459535


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
80.02359927888810260.04719855777620510.976400721111897
90.0108353616803890.0216707233607780.98916463831961
100.003084017056648720.006168034113297440.996915982943351
110.0007305534985232770.001461106997046550.999269446501477
120.0001852466805271090.0003704933610542180.999814753319473
133.70348016458373e-057.40696032916746e-050.999962965198354
140.001068663126377410.002137326252754820.998931336873623
150.0004573275673211230.0009146551346422460.999542672432679
160.0001421066412829600.0002842132825659210.999857893358717
175.29282624427728e-050.0001058565248855460.999947071737557
183.12630951783484e-056.25261903566969e-050.999968736904822
191.15185336732675e-052.30370673465350e-050.999988481466327
206.65435070634497e-061.33087014126899e-050.999993345649294
214.24253734655200e-068.48507469310399e-060.999995757462653
221.97423567481337e-063.94847134962674e-060.999998025764325
239.317249313127e-071.8634498626254e-060.999999068275069
244.01861598763344e-078.03723197526689e-070.9999995981384
252.28966121671521e-064.57932243343042e-060.999997710338783
266.91088999824635e-061.38217799964927e-050.999993089110002
272.51679391435658e-065.03358782871317e-060.999997483206086
285.5137934224229e-061.10275868448458e-050.999994486206578
294.68568667059819e-069.37137334119638e-060.99999531431333
305.43244389242611e-061.08648877848522e-050.999994567556107
311.87138506344722e-063.74277012689444e-060.999998128614937
322.9610561616965e-065.922112323393e-060.999997038943838
339.49798478653584e-071.89959695730717e-060.999999050201521
343.34355683850764e-076.68711367701528e-070.999999665644316
351.09660379377435e-072.19320758754870e-070.99999989033962
366.65310942433421e-071.33062188486684e-060.999999334689058
375.25495056954094e-061.05099011390819e-050.99999474504943
385.56385739546331e-061.11277147909266e-050.999994436142605
395.66393268194933e-061.13278653638987e-050.999994336067318
403.03525818234719e-066.07051636469439e-060.999996964741818
410.7556588694353750.488682261129250.244341130564625
420.6135466634613660.7729066730772690.386453336538634


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level310.885714285714286NOK
5% type I error level330.942857142857143NOK
10% type I error level330.942857142857143NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290526055pj18hzb2jub05qi/10btgl1290525561.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290526055pj18hzb2jub05qi/10btgl1290525561.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290526055pj18hzb2jub05qi/14sk91290525561.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290526055pj18hzb2jub05qi/14sk91290525561.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290526055pj18hzb2jub05qi/2xjjc1290525561.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290526055pj18hzb2jub05qi/2xjjc1290525561.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290526055pj18hzb2jub05qi/3xjjc1290525561.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290526055pj18hzb2jub05qi/3xjjc1290525561.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290526055pj18hzb2jub05qi/4xjjc1290525561.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290526055pj18hzb2jub05qi/4xjjc1290525561.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290526055pj18hzb2jub05qi/58bif1290525561.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290526055pj18hzb2jub05qi/58bif1290525561.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290526055pj18hzb2jub05qi/68bif1290525561.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290526055pj18hzb2jub05qi/68bif1290525561.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290526055pj18hzb2jub05qi/7i2hi1290525561.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290526055pj18hzb2jub05qi/7i2hi1290525561.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290526055pj18hzb2jub05qi/8i2hi1290525561.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290526055pj18hzb2jub05qi/8i2hi1290525561.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290526055pj18hzb2jub05qi/9btgl1290525561.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Nov/23/t1290526055pj18hzb2jub05qi/9btgl1290525561.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Do not include Seasonal Dummies ; par3 = No Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Do not include Seasonal Dummies ; par3 = No Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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