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ws8dollarSTSM

*The author of this computation has been verified*

R Software Module: /rwasp_structuraltimeseries.wasp (opens new window with default values)

Title produced by software: Structural Time Series Models

Date of computation: Sun, 26 Dec 2010 01:49:17 +0000

Cite this page as follows:

Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/26/t1293328175f606ohdix0ifqhq.htm/, Retrieved Sun, 26 Dec 2010 02:49:42 +0100

BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:

@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/26/t1293328175f606ohdix0ifqhq.htm/},
    year = {2010},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2010},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}

Original text written by user:

IsPrivate?

No (this computation is public)

User-defined keywords:

Dataseries X:

» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «

1,3866 1,3582 1,3332 1,3595 1,3617 1,3684 1,3394 1,3262 1,3173 1,3085 1,327 1,3182 1,293 1,291 1,2984 1,2795 1,299 1,3174 1,326 1,3111 1,2816 1,276 1,2849 1,2818 1,2829 1,2796 1,3008 1,2967 1,2938 1,2833 1,2823 1,2765 1,2634 1,2596 1,2705 1,2591 1,2798 1,2763 1,2795 1,2782 1,2644 1,2596 1,2615 1,2555 1,2555 1,2658 1,2565 1,2783 1,2786 1,2782 1,2905 1,3042 1,2942 1,313 1,3671 1,3549 1,3558 1,3507 1,3494 1,3607 1,3295 1,3193 1,3308 1,3246 1,3392 1,3425 1,3496 1,3255 1,3231 1,3273 1,3276 1,3173 1,3196 1,3058 1,2966 1,2932 1,2947 1,305 1,3232 1,3125 1,2992 1,3266 1,3275 1,3223 1,3403 1,3322 1,3363 1,3425 1,3574 1,3683 1,3623 1,3563 1,3518 1,3494 1,3612 1,369 1,3771 1,3972 1,401 1,3908 1,3901 1,3856 1,4098 1,422 1,4238 1,4207 1,4095 1,4177 1,3866 1,3959 1,4102 1,3969 1,4004 1,385 1,389 1,384 1,392 1,3932 1,3858 1,3978 1,4029 1,394 1,4096 1,4058 1,4134 1,4096 1,4049 1,4009 1,3897 1,4019 etc...

Output produced by software:

Summary of computational transaction
Raw Input	view raw input (R code)
Raw Output	view raw output of R engine
Computing time	20 seconds
R Server	'George Udny Yule' @ 72.249.76.132

Structural Time Series Model
t	Observed	Level	Slope	Seasonal	Stand. Residuals
1	1.3866	1.3866	0	0	0
2	1.3582	1.36247025458446	-0.00426205076254279	-0.00426205076254279	-0.877795402768692
3	1.3332	1.33803523001952	-0.00477706615912711	-0.00477706615912711	-1.99765929483720
4	1.3595	1.36344897928734	-0.00403605923375977	-0.00403605923375977	2.98881000821551
5	1.3617	1.36557078533796	-0.00388854663471559	-0.00388854663471560	0.6094382744749
6	1.3684	1.35526032775080	-0.00328955035099736	0.0131582014039895	-0.735854801984011
7	1.3394	1.34329227153411	-0.00387567213725466	-0.00387567213725466	-0.713797253228522
8	1.3262	1.33020136794929	-0.00397479129673009	-0.00397479129673009	-0.906089618088793
9	1.3173	1.32134015410523	-0.00402605952370318	-0.00402605952370318	-0.480433207793260
10	1.3085	1.31258875090083	-0.00407512093107484	-0.00407512093107484	-0.46457103248009
11	1.327	1.31038714080809	-0.00415186359053520	0.0166074543621408	0.197665472250490
12	1.3182	1.32167195213616	-0.00350720331136087	-0.00350720331136087	1.37072189456981
13	1.293	1.29671520952994	-0.00365334503125398	-0.00365334503125398	-2.10499654163985
14	1.291	1.29463827998043	-0.00364282710353008	-0.00364282710353008	0.154701683958594
15	1.2984	1.30193873427000	-0.00357029984917174	-0.00357029984917174	1.07389651715325
16	1.2795	1.26844617722685	-0.00278503521097022	0.0111401408438809	-3.07621191525947
17	1.299	1.30064201831365	-0.00172770718134499	-0.00172770718134499	3.19952491631441
18	1.3174	1.31896987010451	-0.00162771592326884	-0.00162771592326884	1.96644429695242
19	1.326	1.32754835524741	-0.00157779488120277	-0.00157779488120277	1.00070536750275
20	1.3111	1.31278004412947	-0.00164199627307455	-0.00164199627307455	-1.29329854244131
21	1.2816	1.27770994191789	-0.000996621925422829	0.00398648770169132	-3.39329122159371
22	1.276	1.27698938152139	-0.000990083747205376	-0.000990083747205375	0.0256501072527789
23	1.2849	1.28582312894111	-0.000951464121409288	-0.00095146412140929	0.962729793638699
24	1.2818	1.28276566964065	-0.000959594910848687	-0.000959594910848686	-0.206384933216662
25	1.2829	1.28384586655946	-0.000951750327302593	-0.000951750327302594	0.199895616998206
26	1.2796	1.27621990978869	-0.00084983574577788	0.00339934298311152	-0.672412846535521
27	1.3008	1.30108226245390	-0.00034922643466043	-0.000349226434660428	2.41244467667308
28	1.2967	1.2970716679647	-0.000361107242647006	-0.000361107242647011	-0.358691770601852
29	1.2938	1.29417649774639	-0.000369188243366200	-0.000369188243366199	-0.248252419979523
30	1.2833	1.28373028707073	-0.000401219901328487	-0.000401219901328488	-0.987202238250044
31	1.2823	1.28082864880421	-0.0003696409952511	0.00147856398100440	-0.250657680777420
32	1.2765	1.27693717377075	-0.000427852581772093	-0.000427852581772091	-0.332637032734243
33	1.2634	1.26389906275565	-0.000462689864777541	-0.000462689864777545	-1.23509312728983
34	1.2596	1.26008147988794	-0.000471802687848798	-0.000471802687848797	-0.328588998214291
35	1.2705	1.27090860425485	-0.00044119605209232	-0.000441196052092322	1.10664917727005
36	1.2591	1.25791218770227	-0.000306007321482877	0.00122402928593151	-1.25415381703345
37	1.2798	1.27972908620167	1.1670916485963e-05	1.16709164859639e-05	2.09958613845475
38	1.2763	1.27630649476152	3.41104808520347e-06	3.41104808519826e-06	-0.336305000777815
39	1.2795	1.27947994578133	1.09102183870362e-05	1.09102183870367e-05	0.310429922725407
40	1.2782	1.27819588123256	7.85413074625096e-06	7.85413074624853e-06	-0.12681158840876
41	1.2644	1.26496647812993	0.000132073470031211	-0.000528293880124837	-1.31877797478806
42	1.2596	1.25955329981955	6.16827193635694e-05	6.168271936357e-05	-0.528198339687435
43	1.2615	1.26142922070334	6.55462709733778e-05	6.55462709733726e-05	0.177637910763502
44	1.2555	1.25546448264669	5.29117602432063e-05	5.29117602432071e-05	-0.590443531376425
45	1.2555	1.25544743629669	5.27654981017088e-05	5.27654981017066e-05	-0.00684979707124008
46	1.2658	1.26564437893267	-3.15898050021264e-05	0.000126359220008512	1.00854671612987
47	1.2565	1.25665781227061	-0.000133447076674124	-0.000133447076674123	-0.855426224447666
48	1.2783	1.27832889233046	-9.17859919140737e-05	-9.17859919140795e-05	2.13472309354242
49	1.2786	1.27868962984269	-9.09351514456957e-05	-9.09351514456943e-05	0.0443032315353506
50	1.2782	1.27829239348759	-9.15099585031454e-05	-9.1509958503147e-05	-0.0299876343884156
51	1.2905	1.28975557727688	-0.000177773046926373	0.000711092187705496	1.14689426147966
52	1.3042	1.3041872710223	-2.72464147453322e-05	-2.72464147453298e-05	1.39879086673225
53	1.2942	1.29427289531872	-4.4376485635226e-05	-4.43764856352316e-05	-0.967892811027577
54	1.313	1.31295841065478	-1.24372502270570e-05	-1.24372502270566e-05	1.83354608283951
55	1.3671	1.36686512122534	7.93483400273177e-05	7.93483400273154e-05	5.27835936497615
56	1.3549	1.35555871229108	0.000156467283362645	-0.000625869133450574	-1.12860857545066
57	1.3558	1.35564439387499	0.000155800716680424	0.000155800716680426	-0.00679026487425072
58	1.3507	1.35056758529088	0.000147507896090274	0.000147507896090268	-0.512205196524995
59	1.3494	1.34925896401312	0.000145236210558443	0.000145236210558445	-0.142536199497591
60	1.3607	1.36050545087360	0.000162527421146705	0.000162527421146703	1.08666744540983
61	1.3295	1.33097204476403	0.000346596133024533	-0.00138638453209813	-2.94030743594188
62	1.3193	1.31909314480747	0.000240594652140171	0.000240594652140172	-1.17461705922358
63	1.3308	1.33051084336463	0.000256916796473247	0.000256916796473241	1.09402817641540
64	1.3246	1.32437073248448	0.000247719832292766	0.00024771983229277	-0.62614817386631
65	1.3392	1.33889062317907	0.000268208539623104	0.000268208539623102	1.39697450472388
66	1.3425	1.34346207394768	0.000243621741877058	-0.000974486967508232	0.425677826921711
67	1.3496	1.34929598714973	0.000288533767905585	0.000288533767905587	0.537835024963705
68	1.3255	1.32531433308933	0.000255673272406586	0.000255673272406580	-2.37547112174467
69	1.3231	1.32285577433596	0.000252054907090339	0.000252054907090343	-0.265658252784332
70	1.3273	1.32703140410907	0.000257278279613602	0.000257278279613599	0.384023589609152
71	1.3276	1.32859759369995	0.000250342336680574	-0.00100136934672229	0.129373070709997
72	1.3173	1.31716949312232	0.000162935921156140	0.000162935921156140	-1.12487019240347
73	1.3196	1.31942837329047	0.000165581034704400	0.000165581034704395	0.205133603759511
74	1.3058	1.30569179627632	0.000148304717989234	0.000148304717989239	-1.36062695972767
75	1.2966	1.2964902692302	0.000136700508589653	0.000136700508589651	-0.915082635713463
76	1.2932	1.29381058422118	0.000150615041847879	-0.000602460167391513	-0.278177053721894
77	1.2947	1.29454368302602	0.000154695499891029	0.000154695499891029	0.056161442718547
78	1.305	1.30480421172607	0.000166638325944157	0.000166638325944151	0.989036132240963
79	1.3232	1.32296053394460	0.000187574516310395	0.000187574516310399	1.76061081608211
80	1.3125	1.31235609971543	0.000175030012928589	0.000175030012928588	-1.05618946286410
81	1.2992	1.30016469619925	0.000232256105179272	-0.000929024420717087	-1.22069575768214
82	1.3266	1.32612656553608	0.000401654268248783	0.000401654268248784	2.48296691264867
83	1.3275	1.32709607680218	0.000402285230740018	0.000402285230740013	0.0555730202344676
84	1.3223	1.32191991037894	0.000396180759889318	0.000396180759889322	-0.545931962051263
85	1.3403	1.33983413995684	0.000415328930466651	0.000415328930466649	1.71439275232751
86	1.3322	1.33398836473877	0.000442576048164632	-0.00177030419265852	-0.617702158754779
87	1.3363	1.33584469269454	0.000451355634532706	0.000451355634532707	0.136536803486105
88	1.3425	1.34202610845683	0.000457363332684459	0.000457363332684454	0.560752057907584
89	1.3574	1.35688621894157	0.000472236081424102	0.000472236081424106	1.40947340690877
90	1.3683	1.36778692558018	0.000482993312049121	0.000482993312049119	1.02054448353632
91	1.3623	1.36430848020361	0.000499263298567011	-0.00199705319426804	-0.390636252725747
92	1.3563	1.35587821448595	0.00044678788168832	0.000446787881688322	-0.86299212673999
93	1.3518	1.35137241304396	0.000441872585843583	0.000441872585843578	-0.484654349569028
94	1.3494	1.34896911565179	0.000439091292285683	0.000439091292285687	-0.278424781427190
95	1.3612	1.36071724369576	0.000450135182534559	0.000450135182534557	1.10668769109249
96	1.369	1.37062613747573	0.00041335545485295	-0.00165342181941180	0.932324730056167
97	1.3771	1.37663970706414	0.00044458839651402	0.000444588396514022	0.541568436001845
98	1.3972	1.39668042423729	0.000463051131757635	0.000463051131757629	1.91760603953391
99	1.401	1.40052406017554	0.000466188465249585	0.00046618846524959	0.330811674879887
100	1.3908	1.39037427606239	0.000456345907495432	0.000456345907495431	-1.03883983696036
101	1.3901	1.39190639403197	0.000452374289447685	-0.00180949715779074	0.105995029970727
102	1.3856	1.38520567163634	0.000414415451437549	0.000414415451437551	-0.692128209989575
103	1.4098	1.40929606117747	0.00043564590810634	0.000435645908106334	2.31679334973962
104	1.422	1.42151993802815	0.000446058597889972	0.000446058597889977	1.15352757305200
105	1.4238	1.42334873261418	0.000447278857687973	0.000447278857687972	0.135306432250653
106	1.4207	1.42251088737005	0.000451795089560024	-0.00180718035824010	-0.126578086411495
107	1.4095	1.40915689622053	0.00038192148854576	0.000381921488545764	-1.33651680056880
108	1.4177	1.41728909307802	0.000388551378477161	0.000388551378477154	0.758381625321298
109	1.3866	1.38632829433210	0.000362133468945359	0.000362133468945366	-3.06760279972299
110	1.3959	1.39550501922749	0.000369554913732681	0.00036955491373268	0.862526837323516
111	1.4102	1.41142481006551	0.00031741639084139	-0.00126966556336557	1.53113153141186
112	1.3969	1.39669770958268	0.00024463950065616	0.000244639500656165	-1.45711058066853
113	1.4004	1.40014350888738	0.000247257413142078	0.000247257413142071	0.313234811872771
114	1.385	1.38481023733327	0.000234705005905916	0.000234705005905924	-1.52456094436407
115	1.389	1.38875161926492	0.000237688752943480	0.000237688752943479	0.362699691841232
116	1.384	1.38501320965817	0.000250435097986255	-0.00100174039194503	-0.391387301019847
117	1.392	1.39170159892144	0.000280259792153733	0.000280259792153739	0.623800700858677
118	1.3932	1.39291631279565	0.000280991783370955	0.000280991783370949	0.0914351760326609
119	1.3858	1.38554697964097	0.000275087872466765	0.000275087872466773	-0.74857471736091
120	1.3978	1.39748228687315	0.000284078992599613	0.000284078992599612	1.14093752930533
121	1.4029	1.40394263217146	0.000265111982922943	-0.00106044793169178	0.607799364631067
122	1.394	1.39381042499883	0.000218901395599157	0.000218901395599163	-1.00783149114691
123	1.4096	1.40932547954926	0.000230398866364667	0.000230398866364661	1.49668645479789
124	1.4058	1.40558399941528	0.000227457549214135	0.000227457549214145	-0.388637367506178
125	1.4134	1.41314595871627	0.000232884765905047	0.000232884765905047	0.717660502036328
126	1.4096	1.41057271258072	0.000241154538401264	-0.000964618153605067	-0.276080688404334
127	1.4049	1.40470220201113	0.000215051640588898	0.000215051640588904	-0.592626852763936
128	1.4009	1.40070015913493	0.000212005033619294	0.000212005033619287	-0.412625181297082
129	1.3897	1.38952893240646	0.000203902756224914	0.000203902756224924	-1.11380181009036
130	1.4019	1.40165323437344	0.000212380992424637	0.000212380992424636	1.16636111421721
131	1.3901	1.39110252658769	0.000242869980419829	-0.000971479921679326	-1.05868579581016
132	1.399	1.39870607684353	0.000273126455460826	0.000273126455460833	0.71397522181953
133	1.3901	1.3898595211362	0.000266784511483880	0.000266784511483874	-0.892311209968935
134	1.3975	1.39720793632006	0.00027163657117612	0.00027163657117613	0.692898902457998
135	1.3991	1.39882356646747	0.000272556755405699	0.000272556755405698	0.131502403910836
136	1.4089	1.40984201507838	0.000243253032390119	-0.000973012129560484	1.05677362212245
137	1.413	1.4127387319408	0.000253765339592993	0.000253765339592999	0.257460879540090
138	1.409	1.40876127591631	0.000250929011949248	0.000250929011949241	-0.413996872799811
139	1.4217	1.42140513818131	0.000259114146235457	0.000259114146235467	1.21256599108314
140	1.4223	1.42203955558175	0.000259361848214558	0.000259361848214557	0.0367209162374243
141	1.4191	1.42016602772698	0.000264968825987316	-0.00105987530394927	-0.209712213527479
142	1.4229	1.42262046504159	0.000273339833389613	0.000273339833389618	0.212500650308686
143	1.4227	1.42242830407963	0.000273038654682852	0.000273038654682845	-0.0455456369160544
144	1.4269	1.42661318378914	0.000275532423620334	0.000275532423620344	0.382743228763951
145	1.4229	1.42263943177617	0.000272825373895761	0.000272825373895761	-0.415759355894414
146	1.4104	1.41163825238234	0.000301432995346053	-0.00120573198138422	-1.10829452592508
147	1.4053	1.40504356828133	0.000275957165936793	0.000275957165936798	-0.669485600881786
148	1.4138	1.41349534789968	0.000281068979649717	0.000281068979649710	0.799932194982358
149	1.4303	1.42996227109847	0.000291040463978099	0.000291040463978108	1.58364311400608
150	1.4384	1.43808155927350	0.000295859980433350	0.00029585998043335	0.765924867503619
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320	1.3468	1.34660912170504	0.000194605948509885	0.000194605948509883	-0.126418948309189
321	1.3396	1.34042603230946	0.000201908904732206	-0.000807635618928827	-0.625234172373198
322	1.334	1.33382904982716	0.000190396090367803	0.000190396090367807	-0.66274403287091
323	1.3296	1.32942417857097	0.000189076532845613	0.000189076532845607	-0.449531994543124
324	1.3384	1.33818377581151	0.000191502316832412	0.000191502316832417	0.838411136048035
325	1.3585	1.35824555915745	0.000197124541706392	0.00019712454170639	1.94381004346246
326	1.3583	1.35908375797145	0.000196401793261687	-0.000785607173046752	0.062845188651631
327	1.3615	1.36129447724975	0.000199760731894844	0.000199760731894848	0.196362402450946
328	1.3544	1.35422326860318	0.000197704596846922	0.000197704596846916	-0.711281004238256
329	1.3535	1.35330582291017	0.000197393767517625	0.000197393767517631	-0.109089336931936
330	1.3432	1.3430357166933	0.000194477061120052	0.00019447706112005	-1.02398089209605
331	1.3486	1.34933320011644	0.000187701113750428	-0.000750804455001713	0.598263794041148
332	1.3373	1.33716792917423	0.000167411339101670	0.000167411339101674	-1.20427003441461
333	1.3339	1.33374394845468	0.000166410960361526	0.00016641096036152	-0.35132642084946
334	1.3311	1.33094296328466	0.000165596240561694	0.000165596240561700	-0.290284284932591
335	1.3321	1.33193180313739	0.000165822196668453	0.000165822196668451	0.0805334589146627
336	1.329	1.32968083250582	0.000168465295356953	-0.000673861181427812	-0.236904862916246
337	1.3245	1.32435614103904	0.000159576206679163	0.000159576206679166	-0.535544750181502
338	1.3256	1.32543751189114	0.000159829180557790	0.000159829180557784	0.0901739926711867
339	1.3315	1.33132210901386	0.000161377755687691	0.000161377755687697	0.560021900867723
340	1.3238	1.32366329451463	0.000159263017773212	0.000159263017773210	-0.765005466959079
341	1.3089	1.30963909574262	0.000174545761830333	-0.000698183047321332	-1.39028190814787
342	1.2924	1.29230348317418	0.000146623551746911	0.000146623551746915	-1.70720067307167
343	1.2727	1.27261595233312	0.000141259539772949	0.000141259539772943	-1.94026012606146
344	1.2746	1.27445339562636	0.000141711690857310	0.000141711690857316	0.165927807373378
345	1.2969	1.29668867123032	0.00014759935315442	0.000147599353154418	2.16128499077888
346	1.2698	1.27057767091177	0.000175481764800080	-0.000701927059200318	-2.57382295973253
347	1.2686	1.26843479697705	0.000171837948286235	0.000171837948286236	-0.226044892224902
348	1.2587	1.25855982034483	0.000169159822696873	0.000169159822696867	-0.982819650751539
349	1.2492	1.24906126709722	0.000166619653666429	0.000166619653666436	-0.945734435858115
350	1.2349	1.23477885422532	0.000162824356997907	0.000162824356997904	-1.41346221769825
351	1.2428	1.24339154817385	0.000153980529563223	-0.000615922118252891	0.828216697364587
352	1.227	1.22691936907805	0.000128218818824691	0.000128218818824691	-1.6211609341763
353	1.2334	1.23325225318232	0.000129849378682738	0.000129849378682732	0.606964094259903
354	1.2497	1.24951942202445	0.000134029488905793	0.000134029488905799	1.57861434651947
355	1.236	1.23590917537041	0.000130470325579159	0.000130470325579158	-1.34451764612918
356	1.2223	1.22291391735066	0.000144013932435459	-0.000576055729741833	-1.28648469655792
357	1.2309	1.23072233645059	0.000155723871160221	0.000155723871160222	0.747363090244987
358	1.2255	1.22536161786777	0.000154294384386178	0.000154294384386172	-0.539638535696878
359	1.2384	1.23820585984689	0.000157535693254207	0.000157535693254212	1.24137701008692
360	1.2307	1.23056694416453	0.000155544887718481	0.00015554488771848	-0.762677317032662
361	1.2155	1.2162230144592	0.000170297555269765	-0.000681190221079057	-1.42108832052615
362	1.2218	1.22160692085317	0.000178153396554511	0.000178153396554512	0.508405354152472
363	1.2268	1.22660670628085	0.00017938565611054	0.000179385656110535	0.471668820958192
364	1.206	1.20588616563255	0.000174120709491724	0.000174120709491729	-2.04450353806683
365	1.1959	1.19575819039907	0.000171526245734283	0.000171526245734281	-1.00778685222726
366	1.1942	1.19489325497844	0.000172566317219097	-0.000690265268876386	-0.101580414708989
367	1.201	1.20080248226548	0.000181092877925648	0.000181092877925648	0.559433967059842
368	1.2045	1.20430847817687	0.000181931094630922	0.000181931094630918	0.325253030685485
369	1.2127	1.21249299663535	0.000183919707946232	0.000183919707946236	0.782839621809983
370	1.2249	1.22467848001025	0.000186901188878516	0.000186901188878515	1.17403270308663
371	1.2258	1.22653616977159	0.000185247304720528	-0.000740989218882113	0.16374441361025
372	1.2277	1.22751133249187	0.000186405644251152	0.000186405644251153	0.0770349365033932
373	1.2363	1.23608730779606	0.00018849237353556	0.000188492373535555	0.820694144055278
374	1.2372	1.23700921226956	0.000188672185486534	0.000188672185486539	0.0717446840963962
375	1.2391	1.23890598210792	0.000189090843015370	0.000189090843015368	0.167091493123496
376	1.2258	1.22664094084030	0.000201254116961178	-0.000805016467844713	-1.22052600380446
377	1.2271	1.22689850315404	0.000201335595924590	0.000201335595924591	0.00549156067694981
378	1.2262	1.22600210028001	0.000201066162055811	0.000201066162055806	-0.107384063923799
379	1.2294	1.22918959688479	0.00020178868424478	0.000201788684244785	0.292141572310250
380	1.2339	1.23368478846016	0.000202827115047614	0.000202827115047613	0.4199935203017
381	1.2198	1.22070018602940	0.000215536609170714	-0.000862146436682857	-1.29235728138027
382	1.2271	1.22685895439575	0.000224024329906190	0.000224024329906191	0.579646761201954
383	1.2328	1.23255885392341	0.000225350836637084	0.000225350836637079	0.535665668135395
384	1.2548	1.25450680282260	0.000230537816403926	0.000230537816403931	2.12496628743246
385	1.2531	1.25287527785286	0.000230093312469313	0.000230093312469313	-0.182152269373297
386	1.2579	1.25878239757433	0.000224693287769294	-0.000898773151077176	0.556330049830079
387	1.2567	1.25648608144144	0.000221139336992607	0.000221139336992608	-0.24588462178198
388	1.266	1.26575061233247	0.000223301874460673	0.000223301874460667	0.884648902552635
389	1.2637	1.26348446579123	0.000222715083167105	0.000222715083167110	-0.243524548398439
390	1.2572	1.25699821802459	0.000221134141842375	0.000221134141842375	-0.656288795908197
391	1.2569	1.25778080824947	0.000220606947169930	-0.00088242778867972	0.0550195249660512
392	1.2703	1.27002820341867	0.000237345858801321	0.000237345858801323	1.17306560621078
393	1.2828	1.28252439909885	0.000240240070595874	0.000240240070595868	1.19919190073939
394	1.3	1.29970694665038	0.000244182851881524	0.000244182851881528	1.65733967993647
395	1.2957	1.29546978629584	0.000243140247687425	0.000243140247687425	-0.438376397331569
396	1.2844	1.28544028614813	0.000252663591950729	-0.00101065436780292	-1.00663688246875
397	1.2817	1.28146525789943	0.000246853382921403	0.000246853382921406	-0.412374026726396
398	1.285	1.28474369521428	0.000247560137342656	0.000247560137342650	0.296556828544363
399	1.2897	1.28943858942256	0.000248582134104075	0.000248582134104079	0.435048917878709
400	1.2931	1.29284159416741	0.000249306823730556	0.000249306823730557	0.308573200374907
401	1.3033	1.30422434453270	0.000239114831970427	-0.00095645932788171	1.09096352330736
402	1.2992	1.29898402084093	0.000231677727452297	0.000231677727452300	-0.534489278539137
403	1.3069	1.30664518123645	0.000233388310611423	0.000233388310611418	0.726768828023304
404	1.3028	1.30257998663675	0.000232412730342295	0.000232412730342299	-0.420497126748933
405	1.3073	1.30705438866987	0.000233375208553933	0.000233375208553933	0.414961001144939
406	1.3221	1.32293179954194	0.000219231322867476	-0.000876925291469906	1.53292084551382
407	1.3206	1.32039237127072	0.000215532937546992	0.000215532937546996	-0.269101206197585
408	1.3184	1.31819198525814	0.000214983496242775	0.000214983496242769	-0.236330339488162
409	1.3176	1.31738818360319	0.000214755107414729	0.000214755107414733	-0.0996597359404579
410	1.3253	1.32506205715930	0.000216426831486169	0.000216426831486169	0.729666854248374
411	1.3133	1.31423699935250	0.000226287454488278	-0.000905149817953115	-1.08190432749757
412	1.3016	1.30142832756149	0.000209023704690696	0.000209023704690700	-1.27157343067537
413	1.279	1.27886178987545	0.000203906575464923	0.000203906575464918	-2.22795094489564
414	1.2799	1.27969414147879	0.000204045756187731	0.000204045756187736	0.0614757499463976
415	1.282	1.28179007815411	0.000204464640315809	0.000204464640315808	0.18506855028294
416	1.286	1.28678712092407	0.000200236319193557	-0.000800945276774227	0.46959262737098
417	1.288	1.28779638656819	0.000201294999317006	0.000201294999317008	0.0789241522314815
418	1.2836	1.28341294751439	0.000200277220860045	0.000200277220860039	-0.448487260743589
419	1.2711	1.2709390551422	0.000197503809540801	0.000197503809540806	-1.23981099712766
420	1.2704	1.27020538589191	0.000197300099545052	0.000197300099545051	-0.0910890898153375
421	1.2611	1.26194310039219	0.000204674608482197	-0.000818698433928789	-0.828880766785388
422	1.2613	1.26109968443738	0.000203319305291277	0.000203319305291279	-0.102248757058293
423	1.2693	1.26907256484554	0.000205023736030187	0.000205023736030182	0.760032024531105
424	1.2713	1.27108935838928	0.000205415516417535	0.00020541551641754	0.177230487002132
425	1.27	1.26979922175808	0.000205092198686355	0.000205092198686355	-0.146297519799056
426	1.268	1.2688278164264	0.000206105694983145	-0.000824422779932579	-0.115272340766510
427	1.28	1.27974948739639	0.000219800332638642	0.000219800332638644	1.04541218921936
428	1.2818	1.28157521914504	0.000220148520905429	0.000220148520905424	0.157094816469858
429	1.2834	1.28317557525864	0.000220443498794318	0.000220443498794323	0.135014148150127
430	1.2874	1.28716787058755	0.000221249413459079	0.000221249413459078	0.368968663088767
431	1.2744	1.27536065875564	0.000231490564492677	-0.00092596225797071	-1.17851602276034
432	1.2697	1.26949369366659	0.000223786633472065	0.000223786633472068	-0.594983994461512
433	1.2715	1.27127139804023	0.000224119659767982	0.000224119659767977	0.152006568182161
434	1.2725	1.27227347196443	0.000224284007443577	0.000224284007443582	0.0761006563492314
435	1.2801	1.27985294632787	0.000225837445250480	0.000225837445250480	0.719495768420912
436	1.285	1.28586716700413	0.000220965947037946	-0.000883863788151786	0.567119029650541
437	1.2989	1.29862742985571	0.000236625546270143	0.000236625546270145	1.22340779039995
438	1.3078	1.30753652114538	0.000238462990649102	0.000238462990649097	0.848352614693778
439	1.306	1.30576774614547	0.000238043781709358	0.000238043781709363	-0.196350804592703
440	1.3074	1.30715839085363	0.000238284440721861	0.000238284440721861	0.112749019027245
441	1.312	1.31291883092593	0.000233689941785726	-0.000934759767142906	0.541024962959601
442	1.3364	1.33607230436686	0.000261990140358346	0.000261990140358349	2.23625293457257
443	1.3323	1.33205126155946	0.000261092917016909	0.000261092917016903	-0.418971727037834
444	1.3412	1.34091232440512	0.000262868770683766	0.000262868770683771	0.841260004018458
445	1.3477	1.34741783541698	0.0002641575281992	0.0002641575281992	0.610663196437623
446	1.346	1.34706046808805	0.000264668819755100	-0.0010586752790204	-0.0608918359325963
447	1.3611	1.36078032731227	0.000281097233685523	0.000281097233685525	1.31284163126807
448	1.3648	1.36450824634968	0.000281811237755722	0.000281811237755717	0.337172104458256
449	1.3726	1.37229500807898	0.000283343707104827	0.000283343707104831	0.734142969492968
450	1.3705	1.37022392832759	0.000282863064725281	0.000282863064725280	-0.230312431172012
451	1.378	1.37907883325040	0.000275889897088623	-0.00110355958835449	0.839802056263458
452	1.3856	1.38529988564812	0.000283068673237490	0.000283068673237493	0.580093546655249
453	1.397	1.39668264016332	0.000285342614258927	0.000285342614258921	1.08578292172806
454	1.3874	1.38714497579102	0.000283358913940907	0.000283358913940913	-0.960896872252511
455	1.3936	1.39329852321975	0.000284544077132777	0.000284544077132777	0.574228001372812
456	1.3833	1.38449364543538	0.000291856674598515	-0.00116742669839406	-0.890473848697045
457	1.3958	1.39546476777940	0.000304611128044856	0.000304611128044859	1.04204685739342
458	1.4101	1.40975222176445	0.000307444498770255	0.00030744449877025	1.36781487138391
459	1.4089	1.4085970665504	0.000307152354428269	0.000307152354428275	-0.143072885308598
460	1.3896	1.38935314744585	0.00030324810090208	0.00030324810090208	-1.91250423795408
461	1.3859	1.38712833153448	0.000305259812670931	-0.00122103925068373	-0.247665436872441
462	1.3861	1.38580134905594	0.000303331441591554	0.000303331441591559	-0.159272862911150
463	1.4016	1.40124994597427	0.000306367260422132	0.000306367260422127	1.48152256219410
464	1.3934	1.39311963554332	0.000304700261046079	0.000304700261046084	-0.825282896726771
465	1.4031	1.40276650654239	0.00030654573604872	0.00030654573604872	0.913858969280697
466	1.3912	1.39249003278296	0.000314876428971892	-0.00125950571588758	-1.03676307781958
467	1.3803	1.38003666276354	0.000299952836190525	0.000299952836190531	-1.24594673813506
468	1.3857	1.3853844854667	0.000300953869793631	0.000300953869793625	0.49378634374923
469	1.3857	1.38539992551463	0.000300898057021831	0.000300898057021837	-0.027929172567639
470	1.3926	1.39227884190778	0.000302183636218506	0.000302183636218506	0.643466591499576
471	1.4018	1.40294654495116	0.000294111157841401	-0.00117644463136561	1.01543877468941
472	1.4014	1.40111444543285	0.000291652295980577	0.000291652295980583	-0.207484348295588
473	1.4244	1.42403862297737	0.000296093129621714	0.000296093129621708	2.21392799874496
474	1.4084	1.40815371108617	0.000292963421476877	0.000292963421476885	-1.58283621851742
475	1.3917	1.39145932191671	0.000289678520766611	0.000289678520766612	-1.661713620661
476	1.3945	1.39563552399682	0.000286683700260258	-0.00114673480104104	0.38072980737322
477	1.377	1.3767900823824	0.000264789692534128	0.000264789692534137	-1.86703672987314
478	1.37	1.36975767605054	0.000263372832699293	0.000263372832699287	-0.713815634498153
479	1.3711	1.37083412620391	0.000263528454512191	0.000263528454512197	0.0795356615892222
480	1.3626	1.36236333724677	0.000261857107347374	0.000261857107347375	-0.854395619690692
481	1.3612	1.36224965709824	0.000262143462194485	-0.00104857384877795	-0.036787616588639
482	1.3481	1.34789632930368	0.000245591229274926	0.000245591229274934	-1.42630645104941
483	1.3647	1.36440437449553	0.00024871618404976	0.000248716184049754	1.59080041718400
484	1.3674	1.36714362804142	0.00024918794211733	0.000249187942117336	0.243625467078458
485	1.3647	1.364459827774	0.000248632502917756	0.000248632502917758	-0.28690619973273
486	1.3496	1.3506773570148	0.000259220960183958	-0.00103688384073584	-1.37446484366402
487	1.3339	1.33370950318463	0.000239910903702668	0.000239910903702678	-1.68120908187659
488	1.3321	1.33186649346943	0.000239514750131442	0.000239514750131437	-0.203752017119142
489	1.3225	1.32229063813559	0.000237674541737659	0.000237674541737665	-0.96014292128715
490	1.3146	1.31438733425258	0.000236148600857156	0.000236148600857158	-0.79635333195153
491	1.2998	1.30082561863156	0.000246454560995534	-0.000985818243982147	-1.35159635845609

Charts produced by software:

http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/26/t1293328175f606ohdix0ifqhq/1ylbq1293328137.png (open in new window)

http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/26/t1293328175f606ohdix0ifqhq/1ylbq1293328137.ps (open in new window)

http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/26/t1293328175f606ohdix0ifqhq/2ylbq1293328137.png (open in new window)

http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/26/t1293328175f606ohdix0ifqhq/2ylbq1293328137.ps (open in new window)

http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/26/t1293328175f606ohdix0ifqhq/39uab1293328137.png (open in new window)

http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/26/t1293328175f606ohdix0ifqhq/39uab1293328137.ps (open in new window)

http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/26/t1293328175f606ohdix0ifqhq/4j3re1293328137.png (open in new window)

http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/26/t1293328175f606ohdix0ifqhq/4j3re1293328137.ps (open in new window)

http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/26/t1293328175f606ohdix0ifqhq/5j3re1293328137.png (open in new window)

http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/26/t1293328175f606ohdix0ifqhq/5j3re1293328137.ps (open in new window)

Parameters (Session):

par1 = 5 ;

Parameters (R input):

par1 = 5 ;

R code (references can be found in the software module):

par1 <- 5

nx <- length(x)

x <- ts(x,frequency=par1)

m <- StructTS(x,type='BSM')

m$coef

m$fitted

m$resid

mylevel <- as.numeric(m$fitted[,'level'])

myslope <- as.numeric(m$fitted[,'slope'])

myseas <- as.numeric(m$fitted[,'sea'])

myresid <- as.numeric(m$resid)

myfit <- mylevel+myseas

mylagmax <- nx/2

bitmap(file='test2.png')

op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2))

acf(as.numeric(x),lag.max = mylagmax,main='Observed')

acf(mylevel,na.action=na.pass,lag.max = mylagmax,main='Level')

acf(myseas,na.action=na.pass,lag.max = mylagmax,main='Seasonal')

acf(myresid,na.action=na.pass,lag.max = mylagmax,main='Standardized Residals')

par(op)

dev.off()

bitmap(file='test3.png')

op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2))

spectrum(as.numeric(x),main='Observed')

spectrum(mylevel,main='Level')

spectrum(myseas,main='Seasonal')

spectrum(myresid,main='Standardized Residals')

par(op)

dev.off()

bitmap(file='test4.png')

op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2))

cpgram(as.numeric(x),main='Observed')

cpgram(mylevel,main='Level')

cpgram(myseas,main='Seasonal')

cpgram(myresid,main='Standardized Residals')

par(op)

dev.off()

bitmap(file='test1.png')

plot(as.numeric(m$resid),main='Standardized Residuals',ylab='Residuals',xlab='time',type='b')

grid()

dev.off()

bitmap(file='test5.png')

op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2))

hist(m$resid,main='Residual Histogram')

plot(density(m$resid),main='Residual Kernel Density')

qqnorm(m$resid,main='Residual Normal QQ Plot')

qqline(m$resid)

plot(m$resid^2, myfit^2,main='Sq.Resid vs. Sq.Fit',xlab='Squared residuals',ylab='Squared Fit')

par(op)

dev.off()

load(file='createtable')

a<-table.start()

a<-table.row.start(a)

a<-table.element(a,'Structural Time Series Model',6,TRUE)

a<-table.row.end(a)

a<-table.row.start(a)

a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,'Observed',header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,'Level',header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,'Slope',header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,'Seasonal',header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,'Stand. Residuals',header=TRUE)

a<-table.row.end(a)

for (i in 1:nx) {

a<-table.row.start(a)

a<-table.element(a,i,header=TRUE)

a<-table.element(a,x[i])

a<-table.element(a,mylevel[i])

a<-table.element(a,myslope[i])

a<-table.element(a,myseas[i])

a<-table.element(a,myresid[i])

a<-table.row.end(a)

}

a<-table.end(a)

table.save(a,file='mytable.tab')

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 License.

Software written by Ed van Stee & Patrick Wessa

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