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SHWWS7model3

*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Module: /rwasp_multipleregression.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Multiple Regression
Date of computation: Fri, 20 Nov 2009 02:41:55 -0700
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t12587101935m1tohhs72pitcj.htm/, Retrieved Fri, 20 Nov 2009 10:43:26 +0100
 
BibTeX entries for LaTeX users:
@Manual{KEY,
    author = {{YOUR NAME}},
    publisher = {Office for Research Development and Education},
    title = {Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t12587101935m1tohhs72pitcj.htm/},
    year = {2009},
}
@Manual{R,
    title = {R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing},
    author = {{R Development Core Team}},
    organization = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
    address = {Vienna, Austria},
    year = {2009},
    note = {{ISBN} 3-900051-07-0},
    url = {http://www.R-project.org},
}
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
 
Dataseries X:
» Textbox « » Textfile « » CSV «
161 0 149 0 139 0 135 0 130 0 127 0 122 0 117 0 112 0 113 0 149 0 157 0 157 0 147 0 137 0 132 0 125 0 123 0 117 0 114 0 111 0 112 0 144 0 150 0 149 0 134 0 123 0 116 0 117 0 111 0 105 0 102 0 95 0 93 0 124 0 130 0 124 0 115 0 106 0 105 0 105 1 101 1 95 1 93 1 84 1 87 1 116 1 120 1 117 1 109 1 105 1 107 1 109 1 109 1 108 1 107 1 99 1 103 1 131 1 137 1
 
Output produced by software:

Enter (or paste) a matrix (table) containing all data (time) series. Every column represents a different variable and must be delimited by a space or Tab. Every row represents a period in time (or category) and must be delimited by hard returns. The easiest way to enter data is to copy and paste a block of spreadsheet cells. Please, do not use commas or spaces to seperate groups of digits!


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time4 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ 72.249.127.135


Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
Y[t] = + 161.73125 + 3.70312500000001X[t] -3.91874999999995M1[t] -14.040625M2[t] -22.1625000000000M3[t] -24.4843750000000M4[t] -26.3468750000000M5[t] -28.66875M6[t] -32.790625M7[t] -34.9125000000001M8[t] -40.634375M9[t] -38.55625M10[t] -6.67812500000001M11[t] -0.678125t + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)161.731254.4966735.966900
X3.703125000000013.8942310.95090.3466120.173306
M1-3.918749999999955.134656-0.76320.4492430.224621
M2-14.0406255.124802-2.73970.0087220.004361
M3-22.16250000000005.117124-4.3318e-054e-05
M4-24.48437500000005.111633-4.78991.8e-059e-06
M5-26.34687500000005.141215-5.12466e-063e-06
M6-28.668755.126993-5.59171e-061e-06
M7-32.7906255.114928-6.410800
M8-34.91250000000015.105036-6.838800
M9-40.6343755.097328-7.971700
M10-38.556255.091816-7.572200
M11-6.678125000000015.088506-1.31240.1958980.097949
t-0.6781250.105988-6.398200


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.922606451501705
R-squared0.851202664352567
Adjusted R-squared0.809151243408728
F-TEST (value)20.2419477213234
F-TEST (DF numerator)13
F-TEST (DF denominator)46
p-value8.77076189453874e-15
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation8.0438886132106
Sum Squared Residuals2976.390625


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
1161157.1343750000003.86562500000017
2149146.3343752.665625
3139137.5343751.46562499999998
4135134.5343750.465624999999968
5130131.99375-1.99374999999998
6127128.99375-1.99374999999997
7122124.19375-2.19375000000008
8117121.39375-4.39375000000006
9112114.99375-2.99375000000002
10113116.39375-3.39374999999994
11149147.593751.40624999999998
12157153.593753.40625000000001
13157148.9968758.00312499999996
14147138.1968758.803125
15137129.3968757.603125
16132126.3968755.603125
17125123.856251.14374999999999
18123120.856252.14374999999999
19117116.056250.94375000000002
20114113.256250.743750000000013
21111106.856254.14375000000001
22112108.256253.74374999999999
23144139.456254.54375
24150145.456254.54374999999999
25149140.8593758.14062499999996
26134130.0593753.940625
27123121.2593751.74062500000001
28116118.259375-2.25937499999999
29117115.718751.28124999999999
30111112.71875-1.71875000000000
31105107.91875-2.91874999999997
32102105.11875-3.11874999999999
339598.71875-3.71874999999999
3493100.11875-7.11875
35124131.31875-7.31874999999998
36130137.31875-7.31875
37124132.721875-8.72187500000004
38115121.921875-6.921875
39106113.121875-7.12187499999998
40105110.121875-5.12187499999999
41105111.284375-6.28437500000001
42101108.284375-7.28437500000001
4395103.484375-8.48437499999998
4493100.684375-7.68437499999999
458494.284375-10.284375
468795.684375-8.68437500000002
47116126.884375-10.884375
48120132.884375-12.884375
49117128.2875-11.2875000000000
50109117.4875-8.4875
51105108.6875-3.68749999999999
52107105.68751.31250000000001
53109103.1468755.853125
54109100.1468758.853125
5510895.34687512.6531250000000
5610792.54687514.4531250000000
579986.14687512.853125
5810387.54687515.4531250000000
59131118.74687512.253125
60137124.74687512.253125


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
170.002359997541421470.004719995082842940.997640002458579
180.0002649287122507510.0005298574245015010.99973507128775
194.75498500139823e-059.50997000279646e-050.999952450149986
204.8299956388852e-069.6599912777704e-060.999995170004361
212.14177406416343e-064.28354812832686e-060.999997858225936
226.71133508482571e-071.34226701696514e-060.999999328866491
232.16464806705663e-074.32929613411326e-070.999999783535193
244.19736007423164e-078.39472014846329e-070.999999580263993
256.41118728715735e-061.28223745743147e-050.999993588812713
260.0007020976250817050.001404195250163410.999297902374918
270.02779057049736030.05558114099472050.97220942950264
280.3883481844788390.7766963689576770.611651815521161
290.5072733602500590.9854532794998810.492726639749941
300.5729163052315270.8541673895369450.427083694768473
310.57863588383640.84272823232720.4213641161636
320.5281547637128390.9436904725743210.471845236287161
330.6025877692052070.7948244615895860.397412230794793
340.6456312346408110.7087375307183780.354368765359189
350.7394455755226620.5211088489546760.260554424477338
360.8250876191533240.3498247616933530.174912380846677
370.903196565511680.1936068689766420.0968034344883208
380.9191795138121770.1616409723756470.0808204861878233
390.8819766676663890.2360466646672220.118023332333611
400.7989434260617650.402113147876470.201056573938235
410.9439092761868140.1121814476263710.0560907238131857
420.9932962518281410.01340749634371760.00670374817185878
430.9883084327921820.02338313441563640.0116915672078182


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level100.370370370370370NOK
5% type I error level120.444444444444444NOK
10% type I error level130.481481481481481NOK
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t12587101935m1tohhs72pitcj/10jxgl1258710109.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t12587101935m1tohhs72pitcj/10jxgl1258710109.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t12587101935m1tohhs72pitcj/1hcep1258710109.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t12587101935m1tohhs72pitcj/2hcbm1258710109.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t12587101935m1tohhs72pitcj/2hcbm1258710109.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t12587101935m1tohhs72pitcj/3gmmp1258710109.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t12587101935m1tohhs72pitcj/4a17f1258710109.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t12587101935m1tohhs72pitcj/56ip11258710109.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t12587101935m1tohhs72pitcj/6n9ix1258710109.png (open in new window)
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http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t12587101935m1tohhs72pitcj/7b31a1258710109.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t12587101935m1tohhs72pitcj/7b31a1258710109.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t12587101935m1tohhs72pitcj/8n0zz1258710109.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t12587101935m1tohhs72pitcj/8n0zz1258710109.ps (open in new window)


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t12587101935m1tohhs72pitcj/9tedl1258710109.png (open in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2009/Nov/20/t12587101935m1tohhs72pitcj/9tedl1258710109.ps (open in new window)


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 1 ; par2 = Include Monthly Dummies ; par3 = Linear Trend ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):
library(lattice)
library(lmtest)
n25 <- 25 #minimum number of obs. for Goldfeld-Quandt test
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
x <- t(y)
k <- length(x[1,])
n <- length(x[,1])
x1 <- cbind(x[,par1], x[,1:k!=par1])
mycolnames <- c(colnames(x)[par1], colnames(x)[1:k!=par1])
colnames(x1) <- mycolnames #colnames(x)[par1]
x <- x1
if (par3 == 'First Differences'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n-1,k), dimnames=list(1:(n-1), paste('(1-B)',colnames(x),sep='')))
for (i in 1:n-1) {
for (j in 1:k) {
x2[i,j] <- x[i+1,j] - x[i,j]
}
}
x <- x2
}
if (par2 == 'Include Monthly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,11), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('M', seq(1:11), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:11){
x2[seq(i,n,12),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
if (par2 == 'Include Quarterly Dummies'){
x2 <- array(0, dim=c(n,3), dimnames=list(1:n, paste('Q', seq(1:3), sep ='')))
for (i in 1:3){
x2[seq(i,n,4),i] <- 1
}
x <- cbind(x, x2)
}
k <- length(x[1,])
if (par3 == 'Linear Trend'){
x <- cbind(x, c(1:n))
colnames(x)[k+1] <- 't'
}
x
k <- length(x[1,])
df <- as.data.frame(x)
(mylm <- lm(df))
(mysum <- summary(mylm))
if (n > n25) {
kp3 <- k + 3
nmkm3 <- n - k - 3
gqarr <- array(NA, dim=c(nmkm3-kp3+1,3))
numgqtests <- 0
numsignificant1 <- 0
numsignificant5 <- 0
numsignificant10 <- 0
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
j <- 0
numgqtests <- numgqtests + 1
for (myalt in c('greater', 'two.sided', 'less')) {
j <- j + 1
gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,j] <- gqtest(mylm, point=mypoint, alternative=myalt)$p.value
}
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.01) numsignificant1 <- numsignificant1 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.05) numsignificant5 <- numsignificant5 + 1
if (gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2] < 0.10) numsignificant10 <- numsignificant10 + 1
}
gqarr
}
bitmap(file='test0.png')
plot(x[,1], type='l', main='Actuals and Interpolation', ylab='value of Actuals and Interpolation (dots)', xlab='time or index')
points(x[,1]-mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(mysum$resid, type='b', pch=19, main='Residuals', ylab='value of Residuals', xlab='time or index')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
hist(mysum$resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
densityplot(~mysum$resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
qqnorm(mysum$resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot')
qqline(mysum$resid)
grid()
dev.off()
(myerror <- as.ts(mysum$resid))
bitmap(file='test5.png')
dum <- cbind(lag(myerror,k=1),myerror)
dum
dum1 <- dum[2:length(myerror),]
dum1
z <- as.data.frame(dum1)
z
plot(z,main=paste('Residual Lag plot, lowess, and regression line'), ylab='values of Residuals', xlab='lagged values of Residuals')
lines(lowess(z))
abline(lm(z))
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test6.png')
acf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test7.png')
pacf(mysum$resid, lag.max=length(mysum$resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test8.png')
opar <- par(mfrow = c(2,2), oma = c(0, 0, 1.1, 0))
plot(mylm, las = 1, sub='Residual Diagnostics')
par(opar)
dev.off()
if (n > n25) {
bitmap(file='test9.png')
plot(kp3:nmkm3,gqarr[,2], main='Goldfeld-Quandt test',ylab='2-sided p-value',xlab='breakpoint')
grid()
dev.off()
}
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
myeq <- colnames(x)[1]
myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t] = ', sep='')
for (i in 1:k){
if (mysum$coefficients[i,1] > 0) myeq <- paste(myeq, '+', '')
myeq <- paste(myeq, mysum$coefficients[i,1], sep=' ')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != '(Intercept)') {
myeq <- paste(myeq, rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i], sep='')
if (rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i] != 't') myeq <- paste(myeq, '[t]', sep='')
}
}
myeq <- paste(myeq, ' + e[t]')
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, myeq)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,hyperlink('http://www.xycoon.com/ols1.htm','Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares',''), 6, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Variable',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'S.D.',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'T-STAT<br />H0: parameter = 0',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'1-tail p-value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:k){
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,rownames(mysum$coefficients)[i],header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,mysum$coefficients[i,1])
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,2],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,3],4))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4],6))
a<-table.element(a, round(mysum$coefficients[i,4]/2,6))
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple R',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sqrt(mysum$r.squared))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Adjusted R-squared',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$adj.r.squared)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (value)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[1])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF numerator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[2])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'F-TEST (DF denominator)',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$fstatistic[3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'p-value',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 1-pf(mysum$fstatistic[1],mysum$fstatistic[2],mysum$fstatistic[3]))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics', 2, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residual Standard Deviation',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, mysum$sigma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Sum Squared Residuals',1,TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, sum(myerror*myerror))
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable3.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals', 4, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a, 'Time or Index', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Actuals', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Interpolation<br />Forecast', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a, 'Residuals<br />Prediction Error', 1, TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:n) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i, 1, TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,x[i]-mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.element(a,mysum$resid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable4.tab')
if (n > n25) {
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'p-values',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Alternative Hypothesis',3,header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'breakpoint index',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'greater',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'2-sided',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'less',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (mypoint in kp3:nmkm3) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,mypoint,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,1])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,2])
a<-table.element(a,gqarr[mypoint-kp3+1,3])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable5.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Description',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'# significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'% significant tests',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'OK/NOK',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'1% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant1/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant1/numgqtests < 0.01) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'5% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant5/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant5/numgqtests < 0.05) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'10% type I error level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10)
a<-table.element(a,numsignificant10/numgqtests)
if (numsignificant10/numgqtests < 0.1) dum <- 'OK' else dum <- 'NOK'
a<-table.element(a,dum)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable6.tab')
}
 





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